Jacob Sensiba, Author at The Free Financial Advisor

Economic Pressures

June 9, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

There’s a lot of movement in the economy. Several different news threads and innovations have the ability to change the direction and velocity in which our economy moves. In today’s newsletter, we’re going to talk about some of those economic pressures, what they entail, and what they mean for our economy.

Taxing corporations and the wealthy

A news story recently came out about taxes. More specifically, this news shed light on how the wealthy manipulate the tax code in their favor.

I think the information shared in this story was well known already, or assumed rather, but served as a confirmation. A large number of wealthy individuals aren’t “paying their fair share” in taxes.

This will only add fuel to the fire. The fire I’m talking about is the tax overhaul in the tax code. The Biden administration has said that they want to increase taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals/families.

If they’re successful, it would mean more tax revenue for the federal government, which is a good thing. Is there a chance that the increase in taxes creates a disincentive for those corporations and wealthy individuals?

Perhaps, but I don’t think it’s very likely, broadly speaking. I have only one reason…those corporations and individuals are good at making money, and I believe that will continue.

Government spending

As I said, the change in the tax code will generate more income for the federal government. You may be thinking, “Great! We can reduce the national debt!”

I think that’s very unlikely. That may sound skeptical, and it probably is on some level, but both parties are spenders now. It doesn’t matter if it’s a Republican or a Democrat in the White House, they’re both going to print money to push forward their agenda.

Borrowing costs

I’ve talked about inflation a lot lately, and I promise I’ll tone down after I make this point, but I haven’t explained why runaway inflation is a bad thing.

Now don’t get me wrong, there are advantages (i.e. increased rates on savings accounts), but the disadvantage is higher prices. Households can run into trouble because they can’t afford necessities anymore.

The larger problem, however, is the cost of borrowing. Over the last, almost 15 years, rates have been low. And they’ve stayed low, other than an attempt to increase in 2018.

People and corporations borrowed a lot of money. Some bought things they didn’t need. Others to increase research, development, and innovation. Some people used record amounts of leverage to take part in the wild stock market (as of late).

With that said, the cost of borrowing will go up and the cost to service that debt will go up. The higher rates go, the more money that will be needed to pay for/down the debt. When that happens, less money will be spent on “productive” things.

That can slow growth and negatively impact the economy. That’s why central banks reduce rates in times of negative or low economic growth. It reduces borrowing costs and incentivizes people and companies to spend money instead of saving it.

Labor

The last thing I’ll say that has the ability to tie into the last point is the current labor shortage. There are more jobs available right now than people to take those jobs.

Small businesses, in particular, find it especially difficult to fill vacancies. Couple a labor shortage with a strong push from workers, unions, and government bodies to increase wages, and you get wage inflation.

When wage inflation becomes more prevalent, price inflation (CPI) becomes more likely. If companies have to pay their employees more, they need to account for that increased expenditure somehow. They turn to increase the prices of their products and/or services.

Demand is unlikely to suffer because of higher wages. People are making more money, so they should be able to afford higher prices, right?

Conclusion

If you read back some of my other posts, you’ll see I’m optimistic in select areas of the market, and I’ll stay optimistic in those areas no matter what type of economic pressures the country faces.

With all that I said, I believe there are enough economic pressures to cause a decline in the market and the economy, but there’s no telling when that’ll actually happen.

Disclaimer

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see the website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com

Employment, Stimulus, and Rising Prices

May 26, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

The dynamic of employment changed dramatically because of the pandemic and the stimulus provided to consumers as a result.ww

People were let go from their jobs, especially jobs that didn’t have a way to “work from home”. Factory jobs and jobs in the service industry, for example.

Government Intervention

To combat a declining economy and unemployed workers struggling to make ends meet, the government decided to inject liquidity into the market. They did this through increased unemployment benefits and stimulus payments to those that qualified.

This aid sent to consumers helped out a lot of people, but it didn’t entirely go according to plan. One of the intentions of the stimulus payment was to incentivize people to spend – that’s why a large number of the second payment came via a Visa gift card.

When people spend, the economy does better.

Unfortunately, people saved their stimulus payments, but thankfully the market and the economy didn’t suffer as a result.

Rising Prices

That leads to the predicament we could soon find ourselves in. The economy is doing better. The majority of the United States population has been vaccinated (just a reminder that a majority is anything over 50%). Daily life is starting to return to normal; it’s happening slowly, but we are trending in the right direction.

As people grow more confident in their ability to go out into the world, and they get more confident in the economy and the market, they’re likely to spend some of that savings.

Low rates, decreasing unemployment, and more spending are three legs to likely inflation pressures.

Inflation

Now, I know I wrote about inflation pretty recently (here), but I feel it’s necessary to beat that drum again.

The FED already said that they will be more liberal when it comes to monetary policy. That means they will be more likely to let inflation run hot (relative to their 2% inflation target) for an extended period of time.

What they are doing with that stance, is they don’t want to kill a recovery when it’s just getting started. That’s what happened in 2018 when they raised rates throughout the year, but that increase in interest killed the economic growth and popped a bubble.

Okay, so the recipe for inflation is set, but what does that mean for me?

Honestly, that’s hard to say. We already said that inflation is likely, and in some cases, it’s already here. The question is, how much inflation is too much? This question will be answered by the FED.

And the answer will show itself when they relax their easy monetary policy. Interest rates could go up and the FED’s balance sheet could reduce in size.

At that point, I believe it’s only a matter of time (my hunch is not a lot of time) until the bubble we’ve created pops.

If you’re invested for the long haul, hunker down and hold steadfast. Avoid panic selling. If your time horizon is shorter, soon may be a good time to take some profits and de-risk your portfolio.

Disclaimer

What’s Up With Oil?

May 12, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Oil is in the news a lot right now because of what’s currently happening on the East Coast of the United States. There was a hack of an oil pipeline, and the hackers have since been identified, but the consequences of that hack are being felt by the company and by consumers.

Due to the hack, the pipeline shut down. This pipeline provides the East Coast with nearly half of its gasoline and jet fuel. As a result, gas, and oil prices have gone up, there are gasoline shortages, and consumers are behaving erratically. Some are hoarding gasoline. Others are chasing down supply trucks and are behaving in a way, akin to when an animal’s food supply is threatened.

With all that said, I do want to talk about oil today. Not just the recent news about the hack, but also the price of oil, the supply and demand dynamics, and what my thoughts on the future of the precious fossil fuel are.

Oil Price, Supply and Demand

The price of oil is back to pre-pandemic levels. Back in the early days of the pandemic, however, there was a tremendous shock to the system. Oil prices dove into negative territory because demand projections dropped.

Everyone started staying home due to Covid and mandatory quarantines, so demand dried up. A lot of analysts said that pre-Covid was peak oil demand. More people are going to work remotely, which means less commuting and less consumption. More businesses are going to conduct meetings via Zoom instead of flying to different locations, which also means less consumption.

Do I think the “pre-Covid era” was peak oil demand? I think so, but it’s difficult to say with certainty.

The future of oil

I do believe, however, that the overall demand for oil will trend down going forward. With that said, oil producers are focused on their bottom line. If they see demand trending down, they’ll be inclined to reduce production to protect the price per barrel from plummeting.

There’s another force at play here – clean energy. We will continue to see start-ups and agile new companies bring new technology to market. I think the runway for clean energy, in terms of growth and return potential, is very large. However, don’t count out the big energy companies quite yet.

These companies (Exxon, BP, Chevron, and the like) have been investing a lot of money in green/clean energy. They see the forces at play and they see the direction in which the market is going. It’s in their best interest to plan for an energy market dominated by renewables.

How should we invest?

That’s a good question and due to regulatory constraints, I can’t tell you specifically. Do I think there’s a place for oil in your portfolio? Maybe in the short-term, but not for long.

Investing in energy will be more nuanced than it has in the past. Big oil companies, as I mentioned, are investing in clean energy, but I believe renewable startups and green energy companies will attract the majority of investment.

Keep up to date with what’s happening in the energy market and do your due diligence when it comes to selecting investments.

Inflation

Inflation will most likely increase. Many projections estimate the FED will meet/beat their target of 2%.

I do believe that an increase in goods and services will not affect demand as it would have in the past. Stimulus payments to consumers created enough excess cash that people didn’t mind, or even notice, an increase in prices.

I do realize I’m painting with a broad brush here, and undoubtedly there will be some that will notice the difference. I’m simply stating that demand will not suffer from price creep as it used to, at least while the government continues writing checks.

Gold

We could see another uptrend in gold. There’s a certain recipe that makes the case for a bullish perspective on gold – inflation pressures, increased money supply, and low-interest rates.

The FED continues to supply the market with liquidity with its asset-buying program. An increase in the money supply dilutes the value of the dollar (USD). When the USD decreases in value, typically gold does well.

There is a caveat to that, however. Demand for US Treasury securities is weakening, specifically from foreign investors. To double down on that, foreign investors are net sellers of Treasuries. There have to be enough buyers to meet Treasury issuance, otherwise, the FED won’t have enough “reserves” to inject liquidity into the system.

With regard to low rates, that is a good sign for gold, but it’s also a good sign for equities (companies) with a high tendency to borrow. I’m mainly looking at the technology sector. Especially these unicorns that have high valuations, but low (or negative) profits.

Semiconductors

There’s also a current market disruption at play here…semiconductor shortage. Demand across many applications are at multi-year, sometimes multi-decade, highs. Personal computers, electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles, AI, and the like all use semiconductors.

A semiconductor shortage has many implications:

Decrease in production
Price increase
Nationalist mentality
R&D disruption

A decrease in production can hurt the bottom line. It all depends on when the shortage ends. If production reduces enough for a sustained period, adjustments will have to be made by corporations.

A price increase is likely because of supply and demand dynamics. The price of semiconductors will go up, so the price of the products they’re used in will also go up. This could hurt demand for those products and could hurt consumers.

There are a select few companies that supply the majority of the world’s semiconductors. This could have a similar effect as Covid had with regard to supply chain management. Companies relied on global trade and cooperation to sustain their supply chain operations. When countries shut down due to the pandemic, global trade suffered as a result. Countries might shift to manufacturing their own semiconductors instead of relying on supply from trading partners.

Semiconductors are only getting less expensive and more efficient. With a shortage, and possibly less money coming into the manufacturers, it’s possible that this dynamic of cheaper and better plateaus…at least temporarily. It’s also possible that the shortage improves operations and makes the manufacturers more agile. Some countries have a very unique ability to progress, strengthen, and adapt when a roadblock presents itself.

With that said, I believe semiconductors will be a great investment opportunity. Their demand is only going to increase because of the push to provide the world with electric vehicles and clean energy. I would, however, pay attention to the shortage and I might wait until that shortage ends and prices stabilize.

What Is An NFT?

April 14, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

The acronym NFT has been in the media a lot in the last year. With more of us at home and the US government supplying stimulus money, people have been looking for something to do and ways to make money. Enter in the NFT. The question is, what is an NFT and how do they work?

What is an NFT?

NFT stands for non-fungible token. Non-fungible means that it’s unique and can’t be replaced by something else of similar value. For example, if you had a $10 bill, but wanted change, there are two different ways to get $10 in change. Currency is fungible because it can be exchanged for a different type of currency of similar value.

NFT’s are part of the blockchain (most popularly the Ethereum blockchain). Ethereum is a cryptocurrency. Ethereum differs from the “mainstream” Bitcoin because it is open source, which means it can be edited, updated, and/or improved upon.

NFT’s can be used to sell digital art (music, photos, videos, etc.).

How’s it work with the artist?

NFT’s could give artists a more significant piece of the pie when selling their work. Right now, most of the profit goes to middlemen/women. Authentication in the form of NFT would enable the artist to participate more in the revenue sharing of their work.

On the other side of that coin, if you’re buying NFT’s, you have the ability to support your favorite artists. Also, owning the NFT is akin to owning the original. You’re able to “use” it without the fear of being sued for copyright infringement. The “proof of work” for owning the NFT is recorded on the blockchain.

All that being said, owning an NFT just means you own the original version. There can and will be copies of that thing on the internet. Copies can be made much more easily than if those things were in the physical world.

What to watch for

You need to be careful when you are bidding for NFT’s. Someone can create an NFT that’s a copy of an original NFT. Hopefully, though, the questions when creating the NFT weed out the copies and “fakes”.

Additionally, blockchains and cryptocurrencies use an extraordinary amount of energy. The carbon footprint created by mining a single Bitcoin is ginormous (Source).

Should You Invest in Mobile Homes?

March 17, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba 1 Comment

Mobile homes get a bad rap, but they could really be a good place to invest money. Investing in real estate is a good way to diversify your portfolio. Mobile, or manufactured homes, could be a good little niche in that sector. Should you invest in mobile homes?

What is a mobile home?

Mobile homes, also known as manufactured homes, are residential structures built in a factory or separate location and moved to the desired location. These homes are built according to HUD guidelines.

Those guidelines are as follows:

Design and construction
Strength and durability
Transportability
Fire resistance
Energy efficiency
Overall quality

Why invest in mobile homes?

Social stigma around mobile home parks prevent people from investing in them

Investing in individual mobile homes is difficult because the people that rent them are a (and I’m making a big generalization here) a challenging bunch to deal with. Invest in the grounds and infrastructure where the mobile/manufactured homes are.

There are several benefits to investing in mobile home parks:

Recession-resistant (held up through the GFC)
Tenants rarely leave, but sometimes, evictions are necessary (as they are with any real estate endeavor)
Supply is waning, demand is increasing
Predictable maintenance costs
Stigma reduces competition with other investors
Great financing options
Limited need for contractors
They’re inexpensive (you can buy individual units to rent on your property for less than $10,000 – depending on the area and demand)

(List provided by BiggerPockets)

Conclusion

As I mentioned in the beginning, investing in real estate is a great way to diversify your portfolio. It can also be a good way to get a return on your money.

Within the real estate sector, mobile home parks can be a very good niche, for the reasons I mentioned above. Should you invest in mobile homes?

Prioritizing Home Renovations

March 10, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

As I’ve said previously, K and I are moving back to our home in Oconomowoc, WI. We’re head over heels excited about it, but there are some things we need to do and some things that we want to do. Today, I’m going to talk about some of the projects we have planned and help you prioritize your home renovations.

What we need to do

There are two/three things that we need to do once we move back.

The first thing is to sure up the foundation. Our house is old, really old. The foundation is not as secure as we need it to be, so that’ll be the first thing we do. Get some extra support posts installed in the basement and secure/replace some of the old joists that have seen better days.

The second thing we have to do is insulate the kitchen. I don’t know what the prior owners did (they remodeled the home and flipped it to us), but the kitchen bleeds AC/heat. In the winter, it’s very clear because it’s darn cold in the kitchen. What’s more, the kitchen sink and the dishwasher will stop working if it gets too cold. To ensure the pipes won’t freeze and burst, and make the kitchen more energy-efficient and comfortable, we have to insulate.

The third thing is not incredibly important but should get done at some point. Off of the kitchen is the back door entrance. You enter into a “three-seasons room” and then enter a second door to get into the kitchen. The three seasons room needs insulation as well. Beneath it, we need to lay a vapor barrier on the ground and spray insulation into the floor joists. Now, this is not very important because of the second door. However, more insulation will allow for more utilization of that room.

What we want to do

This list is pretty long, as is the case for most homeowners. Some of the windows need to be replaced, we want to install an island in the kitchen, and we want to remodel the downstairs bathroom.

With regard to the bathroom, the current setup is one full bath and one-half bath. They are right next to each other, but the half bath (in terms of square footage) is much bigger than the full bath. What we would like to do is demo the wall in between and make it one, big bathroom. The price tag for this is a little higher than the other projects, so it’s a little farther down on the list.

How to prioritize

The first three renovations are no-brainers. These need to get done. Securing the foundation is paramount for our family’s safety, the insulation is important to avoid possible water damage and lower heating costs, and taking care of the back porch/three-season room will expand the usable square footage.

You have to take into account a few things:

Family safety
Family comfort
Financial sense
ROI – Return on Investment

Safety is your number one priority. That’s what makes a home, being comfortable living there. Replacing windows can be expensive, but they will pay for themself over time with savings in utility costs. In terms of the bathroom, it should increase the value of the home, but how much we spend versus how much the value increases is a factor to consider.

Conclusion

Projects and renovations go hand in hand with home ownership. What’s important is prioritizing home renovations so you take care of what’s needed before you tackle what you want.

How To Ask for Reimbursement of Travel Expenses

March 3, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

At this point in time, business travel is less common than it used to be. I have a hunch that it will never return to pre-pandemic levels, as employers found it easier and less expensive to accomplish this through Zoom. It’s still important to know the ins and outs. Today we will cover how to ask for reimbursement of travel expenses.

What are travel expenses?

Travel expenses occur when an employee travels for business purposes. A business trip can include conferences, business meetings, client meetings, training, job fairs, etc.

Travel expenses include lodging, food, rental car, tips for servers and bellhops, etc. Most organizations that require employees to travel on a regular basis have policies in place.

If an employee is traveling for an extended period of time or is at a particular location for an extended stay, the business may also include reimbursement to pay for your family to visit.

When entertaining a client or a business partner, there are limits on entertainment expense reimbursement, so make sure you check your company’s guidelines so you don’t breach that threshold.

How do employees pay for travel expenses?

Company credit cards, personal credit/debit cards, cash, or allowances given by the employer.

How to ask for reimbursement of travel expenses

If the corporate policies are unclear about the process, write a letter first. Before you go on a trip or take a client out for lunch, request the payment of the expense, or at least ask for some information about what is covered, what isn’t, and what the limits are. Establishing communication upfront is very important.

Per diem, aka travel allowance or an expense account, is recognized by the IRS. Per their guidelines, your expense report is due to your employer (usually HR) within 60 days. The report should include dates, location(s), and receipts.

If you have any allowances or advancements that haven’t been used or can’t be justified as a business expense, then you must return that to your employer. If you don’t return it, that money can be classified as taxable income.

Conclusion

As I said in the opening, I don’t believe business travel will return to pre-pandemic levels, but it’s important to know what travel expenses are and how to ask for reimbursement of travel expenses.

Review your company’s business travel policy for more information, and if your company doesn’t have one, speak to them about what’s covered, what’s not covered, and any limitations.

How You Can Help Your Brain Heal

February 24, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba 1 Comment

Your brain, my brain, everyone’s brain could sustain damage throughout life. The brain is incredibly resilient and has tremendous healing qualities. We will talk about what happens to a damaged brain and how you can help your brain heal.

My accident

Back in January, I got into an accident. Here’s what happened:

I went ice fishing with my dad. I pulled my car into a snow-covered parking lot. We got done fishing. I attempted to back out and my car was stuck. I pushed from the front and my dad hooked up his ATV to the back of my car, and I put the vehicle in reverse to help it out.

With my pushing and (mostly) my dad’s pulling, we got the car out. Unfortunately, the car didn’t stop rolling. I rushed to get into the car to stop it because I was in a parking lot and I was going to run into another car. As I attempted to get into the rolling car, I slipped and hit my head on the inside of my door.

I stopped the car though.

Aftermath

I definitely got a concussion. I’ve had a few before so I know what they feel like. You’re disoriented. Your equilibrium is off. Your brain is not firing on all cylinders. Sometimes you’re dizzy. Sometimes, it can knock you out cold.

I went to my parents’ house instead of going home because I had my son. I needed someone to watch him while I rested.

The following weeks have been interesting, to say the least. The week after required time off of work. I was dizzy, nauseous, had headaches, and had annoying brain fog.

The headaches and brain fog persisted for weeks to the point where I couldn’t take it anymore and got a CT scan. Thankfully, the scan came back normal, but I still have bad days. It’s going to take time.

While I rest and get better, I found ways to help myself.

Brain injuries

They’re incredibly common. Per the CDC, there are 2.8 million traumatic brain injuries per year. That number, though, is not accurate because the majority of people that experience a brain injury don’t get diagnosed. They don’t seek treatment.

A brain injury can result in physical ailments like brain fog, forgetfulness, trouble with day-to-day activities, and drowsiness. It can also lead to psychological illnesses like anxiety, depression, bipolar disorder, and mood instability.

Healing the brain

As I mentioned, the brain does an extraordinary job of healing itself. 90% of people that experience a traumatic brain injury recover without any long-term effects.

Here are some other things that I’ve implemented and some things I would like to do to help my mind and my body:

Meditation
Exercise
Eating healthy
Listening to music
Learning something new
Getting enough sleep
Brain stimulating games/activities

Exercise, eating healthy, and getting enough sleep to establish an imperative foundation for healthy living, but also helps tremendously when recovering from a brain injury.

Brain stimulating games, learning something new, and meditation are methods to help create new neural pathways

I believe establishing these practices in my daily life will help my brain in the short-term and the long-term.

Red Flags When Choosing a Financial Advisor

February 17, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Finding a qualified, trustworthy financial advisor can be very tough. Not all of them are created equal. What requirements and/or rules they follow are not the same. There are some financial advisor red flags you need to be aware of when shopping. We’ll explore those in today’s post.

How was the first meeting?

What kind of vibes did you get from the person you met with? Did you have a good gut feeling or a bad gut feeling? Was there good rapport? Did the conversation flow naturally? Did they answer your questions?

These are all great questions to reflect on after you met with your first prospect. You have to trust your gut. If the conversation was good and flowed naturally, but you just didn’t get a good vibe from them, shop elsewhere.

If you think they were walking a line of honesty, whether they held back on telling you things or they made contradicting statements, I would either address it directly or walk away. This is your financial future we’re talking about. You have to make the right decision.

How are they governed?

Do they operate using the fiduciary standard or are they only required to do what’s suitable? As a fiduciary, the advisor is legally obligated to do what’s in your best interest.

For example, when making investment recommendations, an advisor that operates using suitability is only required to make recommendations based on what’s optimal for your investment objective, time horizon, and risk tolerance.

With the fiduciary standard, they use that same suitability but take it a step further. If there are two options for investment – one charges 1% and one charges .50%, the advisor will use the lower of the two because that’s in the client’s best interest.

What are they offering?

If you meet with a potential advisor and they say that they’ll beat the market, run the other way. If an advisor recommends annuities or variable products, I’d either stress that you’re not interested or move along. These are insurance products and there could be a conflict of interest.

How are communications?

Are they honest with their pay schedule? When you asked them about what they charge, were they clear with their answer? This is important. A wishy-washy answer is enough grounds for you to walk away.

Do they talk a lot or do they take time to listen to you? Advisors that talk more than they listen are often pitching a narrative that they believe instead of listening and creating a plan customized to your needs/wants.

How are they with following up? Does it take them forever to get back to you? An advisor that doesn’t make you feel important is a red flag.

Are they a “yes person”? Do they always agree with you? A key characteristic of good advisors is the ability to correct you or express their opinion about your financial plan. If there’s something that you would like to do, but they don’t think that it’s a wise move based on the plan you created, they need to tell you that.

Conclusion

Are there financial advisor red flags? Absolutely. We illustrated them here. Keep them in mind when you’re shopping and trust your gut. There are fantastic advisors out there, you just have to do a little work to find one.

Taxing corporations and the wealthy

Government spending

Borrowing costs

Labor

Conclusion

Related reading:

Disclaimer

Government Intervention

Rising Prices

Inflation

Disclaimer

Oil Price, Supply and Demand

The future of oil

How should we invest?

Related reading:

Inflation

Gold

Semiconductors

Related reading:

What is an NFT?

How’s it work with the artist?

What to watch for

Related reading:

What is a mobile home?

Why invest in mobile homes?

Conclusion

Related reading:

What we need to do

How to prioritize

Conclusion

Related reading:

What are travel expenses?

How do employees pay for travel expenses?

How to ask for reimbursement of travel expenses

Conclusion

Related reading:

My accident

Aftermath

Brain injuries

Healing the brain

Related reading:

How was the first meeting?

How are they governed?

What are they offering?

How are communications?

Conclusion

Related reading: