Jacob Sensiba, Author at The Free Financial Advisor

What Does an Increase in Yields Look Like?

August 4, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

I’m not going to lie. I had a lot of trouble coming up with the substance for today’s article. There have been developments since I wrote two weeks ago, but that hasn’t really changed some of the things I’ve said before. I still see inflation as a problem and I still see investment opportunities in a select few areas. What does an increase in yields mean?

The Federal Reserve

The one new piece of information that is worth noting is that the FED has indicated that if the information supports their narrative, they will decrease their asset purchasing program later this year.

That’s a very significant piece of news and the market knows it. Yields increased immediately, only by 7 basis points, or .07%. That may sound like a small move, but in a couple of minutes, that’s HUGE.

Covid

Two weeks ago I mentioned the possibility of mask mandates and stay-at-home orders. I thought that the Delta variant was causing enough worry and panic that this could happen.

In the United States, we have not seen any stay-at-home orders, but we have seen mask mandates and vaccination requirements. Outside of the U.S., however, we have seen a crackdown on domestic and international travel.

There’s a possibility that we see more stay-at-home orders as the Delta variant continues to spread and increase the number of Covid cases.

Investment Implications

With the threat of inflation becoming more poignant and stay-at-home orders becoming more likely, what are the investment implications?

When it comes to inflation, the short-term effects will be much more dramatic and noticeable than the long-term effects. I think a rise in inflation and a drying up of liquidity will have broad, negative effects throughout the financial system.

An increase in yields will cause bond prices to drop. An increase in yields will make servicing that debt more expensive, so it’s likely R&D spending will go down. It could also negatively affect sectors that rely on borrowing.

There’s also a chance that people will save more. An increase in yields means the interest rate for their savings account will go up, making saving more attractive.

An increase in yields could also cause a migration from “riskier” assets to assets deemed less risky.

Only time will tell what inflation will look like, how the FED will respond, and what the implications will be.

Disclaimer:

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The Resurgence of Covid and What it Means

July 21, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

In today’s post, we’re going to talk about the investment and economic implications caused by the resurgence of Covid-19 due to the delta variant. Supply and logistics changed dramatically last year when parts of the world shut down. Delivery times slowed down and costs increased because of lack of supply and disrupted logistics.

We started to see a recovery. Supply issues started to resolve themselves. Supply chain constraints started to get better. Costs for items (due to chip shortages and increases in energy prices) started to level out.

So what’s going to happen if we have a resurgence of Covid and things shut down, or slow down, again?

The Federal Reserve

Like everything, only time will tell. The FED gave a little glimpse into what their plans were for interest rates and quantitative easing at the last meeting. They state that if the economy continues to improve as it has been, they might reduce their balance sheet and consider increasing interest rates by the end of 2023.

If the delta variant causes enough of a disruption, that could push back their timeline for ending/implementing such a plan. In either case, they’ve stated that they will continue with easy monetary policy for the foreseeable future, even if inflation starts to run hot.

Commodities

If the risks around Covid-19 continue to present themselves, we’ll continue to see moves in important items, including the US Dollar, Gold, Treasuries, Yields, and Oil.

In risk-on environments, the USD, gold, and Treasuries typically increase in value. Yields usually will go down as well. The only X-factor when it comes to economics and commodities is oil. The change in the price of oil is very different this time because of travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders.

Oil

Demand for oil went straight down, so oil prices went down. Major oil producers needed to then reduce production to decrease supply so prices could recover. Then demand started to pick up and oil prices quickly came back so production needed to increase to level off prices.

With all that said, oil prices and the major producers’ production will be range-bound for a while. The delta variant is causing too much worry to peg a direction for oil in the near term.

Long-term, I think oil will recover to pre-pandemic levels for a little while, but as electric vehicles and renewable energy become more commonplace, I think demand will dry up. Then prices will go down as a result. How much the price of oil goes down, only time will tell.

Investment Opportunities

If there’s a resurgence of Covid or not, there are a few opportunities I think will transcend the short-term volatility, and I’ve talked about them before. Clean energy and healthcare. I think both of these industries, in terms of runway, are in their infancy.

Healthcare has come so ridiculously far over the years, but I feel there’s so much room to run yet. Clean energy is just getting started. With countries and companies vowing to reduce carbon emissions to zero over the coming years, or decades, there will be rapid advancement in this sector.

Disclaimer:

Investment Concerns and Opportunities

July 7, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

There are investment concerns and opportunities pretty much any way you turn. Healthcare looks great, but what about the costs associated with treatment? Technology is improving every day, but what’s going to happen with possible regulations? Is the FED going to pop our bubble?

Plenty can happen so let’s explore it together.

The FED

The FED doesn’t appear like it’ll stop its asset-buying program and accommodative monetary policy anytime soon, and it said just that in its most recent meeting.

That’s a good sign for the economy and for certain sectors. The industries that find the most favor are those that use heavy borrowing to facilitate growth efforts. These include construction, retail, information technology, transportation, and healthcare.

Commodity Prices

We continue to see a rise in commodity prices. Copper, oil, and lumber are all near record highs. I believe we’ll continue to see a steady increase in the price of copper. Copper is used in electronics, and with the further development of new technology, electric and autonomous vehicles, and green energy…the demand for the metal is just getting started.

Big Tech

Silicon Valley is bracing for possible regulatory troubles. There’s a new head of the FTC and she has her gloves on. Big tech has come under increased scrutiny in a few areas, including content, privacy, and antitrust. This causes investment concerns.

The federal government has a problem with social platforms and some of the content users post on their sites. There’s a thin line these companies walk because they can’t censor speech and they can’t promote speech. But some people post very harmful and hurtful things.

Also, antitrust cases are likely to come in full force because some of these companies are so gosh darn huge. They have so much pull, so much money, and too much market share (in a lot of cases).

What’s more, they no longer hide that they harness user data to make money. How much they sell to other parties and what they sell isn’t entirely known, but their privacy issues are also coming to head.

With all of that said, compliance costs are going to increase. What those companies look like and what they’re allowed to do will likely look different than what it is now. Only time will tell what happens to these companies.

Healthcare

I’m reading and hearing more and more excitement about the healthcare space and the investment opportunities that lie within. The speed at which the globe was able to produce three or four viable and useful vaccines for Covid is incredible. I heard today that it’s the first vaccine to be created in less than 5 years.

The global population is getting older by the day. Not only that, but the baby boomer generation is around retirement age, so they’re going to require more medical attention.

Prescriptions, medical devices, new and improved medical technologies are going to treat and possibly cure more and more illnesses.

Telemedicine looks to be a great investment opportunity. Last year, medical attention was quite high but 90% of that was done in person. Virtual visits, remote monitoring, and in-home testing will grow in popularity.

Investment concerns and opportunities abound, I’m excited for what’s to come in the tech and healthcare spaces.

Disclaimer:

What’s The Federal Reserve Going To Do?

June 23, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

There’s a lot going on in the world right now. Supply disruptions, stimulus payments, excess savings, labor shortages, and infrastructure are all playing a role in economic policy. In today’s post, I want to try and explain how they all play a factor with regard to how the FED determines policy.

Supply disruptions

Inherently, supply disruptions don’t have much to do with how the federal reserve coordinates monetary policy. The biggest supply disruption we have at the moment involves semiconductors.

The wide applicability of semiconductors makes them very important in product development and deployment. What’s more, the number of semiconductors needed just keeps growing.

The bad news is…there’s a supply shortage. That creates upward pressure on price. Not only for the semiconductors themselves but also for the products that use them.

Stimulus payments and excess savings

When Covid hit, the world shut down. People were out of work, so they didn’t spend money. People didn’t spend money, so businesses started losing revenue. In order to prevent total economic collapse, the government sent stimulus checks to qualifying individuals and boosted unemployment.

A lot of people saved this “extra” money and recently started to spend it. Jobs are starting to come back and the global economy is starting to look healthy. Confidence inspires spending. Increased consumer spending is good for the economy.

Labor shortages

Labor has become a big topic of conversation. Not only do we have more jobs available than we have people to take those jobs, but workers are quitting in large numbers. Both of those factors can have a large impact on wages.

Employers are having trouble filling roles. How can they attract applicants? Better wages and benefits? For those that can afford bigger payroll, that’s the avenue they’re using. That puts upward pressure on wages.

I also mentioned workers are quitting in droves. Employees are demanding to be fairly compensated and enough of them are banding together now. Improved benefits and increased wages are becoming more likely.

Wage inflation helps feed the price inflation narrative. The prices for products and services go up because of supply and demand factors. Wage inflation increases due to supply and demand dynamics.

These two inflationary pressures feed on each other. Wages go up so workers can afford more. Prices go up because workers can buy more, and so on.

Infrastructure

News broke about a new infrastructure bill (Source). On top of, already, record-breaking government spending, that’ll juice our GDP numbers for 2021.

I don’t have much else to say about this other than the spending involved will create inflationary pressures AND I’m proud there was bipartisan support for this bill. Not something we see very often anymore, so I’m happy it turned out this way.

The Federal Reserve

With all of that said, what’s the federal reserve going to do? If inflationary pressures are as hot as they seem, I fear the FED will have no option, but to end their accommodating stance on monetary policy.

They’ve already indicated that a rise in interest rates in Q3 or Q4 of 2023 is likely. They claim that they will let inflation run past their 2% target but by how much? At one point do they say enough is enough?

That’s a tough question to answer. I think in this situation, they’re talking bigger than what they’ll actually deliver. It’s all well and good if they say they’re going to let inflation run, but we’ll see what actually happens when that gets here.

Disclaimer

Economic Pressures

June 9, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

There’s a lot of movement in the economy. Several different news threads and innovations have the ability to change the direction and velocity in which our economy moves. In today’s newsletter, we’re going to talk about some of those economic pressures, what they entail, and what they mean for our economy.

Taxing corporations and the wealthy

A news story recently came out about taxes. More specifically, this news shed light on how the wealthy manipulate the tax code in their favor.

I think the information shared in this story was well known already, or assumed rather, but served as a confirmation. A large number of wealthy individuals aren’t “paying their fair share” in taxes.

This will only add fuel to the fire. The fire I’m talking about is the tax overhaul in the tax code. The Biden administration has said that they want to increase taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals/families.

If they’re successful, it would mean more tax revenue for the federal government, which is a good thing. Is there a chance that the increase in taxes creates a disincentive for those corporations and wealthy individuals?

Perhaps, but I don’t think it’s very likely, broadly speaking. I have only one reason…those corporations and individuals are good at making money, and I believe that will continue.

Government spending

As I said, the change in the tax code will generate more income for the federal government. You may be thinking, “Great! We can reduce the national debt!”

I think that’s very unlikely. That may sound skeptical, and it probably is on some level, but both parties are spenders now. It doesn’t matter if it’s a Republican or a Democrat in the White House, they’re both going to print money to push forward their agenda.

Borrowing costs

I’ve talked about inflation a lot lately, and I promise I’ll tone down after I make this point, but I haven’t explained why runaway inflation is a bad thing.

Now don’t get me wrong, there are advantages (i.e. increased rates on savings accounts), but the disadvantage is higher prices. Households can run into trouble because they can’t afford necessities anymore.

The larger problem, however, is the cost of borrowing. Over the last, almost 15 years, rates have been low. And they’ve stayed low, other than an attempt to increase in 2018.

People and corporations borrowed a lot of money. Some bought things they didn’t need. Others to increase research, development, and innovation. Some people used record amounts of leverage to take part in the wild stock market (as of late).

With that said, the cost of borrowing will go up and the cost to service that debt will go up. The higher rates go, the more money that will be needed to pay for/down the debt. When that happens, less money will be spent on “productive” things.

That can slow growth and negatively impact the economy. That’s why central banks reduce rates in times of negative or low economic growth. It reduces borrowing costs and incentivizes people and companies to spend money instead of saving it.

Labor

The last thing I’ll say that has the ability to tie into the last point is the current labor shortage. There are more jobs available right now than people to take those jobs.

Small businesses, in particular, find it especially difficult to fill vacancies. Couple a labor shortage with a strong push from workers, unions, and government bodies to increase wages, and you get wage inflation.

When wage inflation becomes more prevalent, price inflation (CPI) becomes more likely. If companies have to pay their employees more, they need to account for that increased expenditure somehow. They turn to increase the prices of their products and/or services.

Demand is unlikely to suffer because of higher wages. People are making more money, so they should be able to afford higher prices, right?

Conclusion

If you read back some of my other posts, you’ll see I’m optimistic in select areas of the market, and I’ll stay optimistic in those areas no matter what type of economic pressures the country faces.

With all that I said, I believe there are enough economic pressures to cause a decline in the market and the economy, but there’s no telling when that’ll actually happen.

Disclaimer

Employment, Stimulus, and Rising Prices

May 26, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

The dynamic of employment changed dramatically because of the pandemic and the stimulus provided to consumers as a result.ww

People were let go from their jobs, especially jobs that didn’t have a way to “work from home”. Factory jobs and jobs in the service industry, for example.

Government Intervention

To combat a declining economy and unemployed workers struggling to make ends meet, the government decided to inject liquidity into the market. They did this through increased unemployment benefits and stimulus payments to those that qualified.

This aid sent to consumers helped out a lot of people, but it didn’t entirely go according to plan. One of the intentions of the stimulus payment was to incentivize people to spend – that’s why a large number of the second payment came via a Visa gift card.

When people spend, the economy does better.

Unfortunately, people saved their stimulus payments, but thankfully the market and the economy didn’t suffer as a result.

Rising Prices

That leads to the predicament we could soon find ourselves in. The economy is doing better. The majority of the United States population has been vaccinated (just a reminder that a majority is anything over 50%). Daily life is starting to return to normal; it’s happening slowly, but we are trending in the right direction.

As people grow more confident in their ability to go out into the world, and they get more confident in the economy and the market, they’re likely to spend some of that savings.

Low rates, decreasing unemployment, and more spending are three legs to likely inflation pressures.

Inflation

Now, I know I wrote about inflation pretty recently (here), but I feel it’s necessary to beat that drum again.

The FED already said that they will be more liberal when it comes to monetary policy. That means they will be more likely to let inflation run hot (relative to their 2% inflation target) for an extended period of time.

What they are doing with that stance, is they don’t want to kill a recovery when it’s just getting started. That’s what happened in 2018 when they raised rates throughout the year, but that increase in interest killed the economic growth and popped a bubble.

Okay, so the recipe for inflation is set, but what does that mean for me?

Honestly, that’s hard to say. We already said that inflation is likely, and in some cases, it’s already here. The question is, how much inflation is too much? This question will be answered by the FED.

And the answer will show itself when they relax their easy monetary policy. Interest rates could go up and the FED’s balance sheet could reduce in size.

At that point, I believe it’s only a matter of time (my hunch is not a lot of time) until the bubble we’ve created pops.

If you’re invested for the long haul, hunker down and hold steadfast. Avoid panic selling. If your time horizon is shorter, soon may be a good time to take some profits and de-risk your portfolio.

Disclaimer

What’s Up With Oil?

May 12, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Oil is in the news a lot right now because of what’s currently happening on the East Coast of the United States. There was a hack of an oil pipeline, and the hackers have since been identified, but the consequences of that hack are being felt by the company and by consumers.

Due to the hack, the pipeline shut down. This pipeline provides the East Coast with nearly half of its gasoline and jet fuel. As a result, gas, and oil prices have gone up, there are gasoline shortages, and consumers are behaving erratically. Some are hoarding gasoline. Others are chasing down supply trucks and are behaving in a way, akin to when an animal’s food supply is threatened.

With all that said, I do want to talk about oil today. Not just the recent news about the hack, but also the price of oil, the supply and demand dynamics, and what my thoughts on the future of the precious fossil fuel are.

Oil Price, Supply and Demand

The price of oil is back to pre-pandemic levels. Back in the early days of the pandemic, however, there was a tremendous shock to the system. Oil prices dove into negative territory because demand projections dropped.

Everyone started staying home due to Covid and mandatory quarantines, so demand dried up. A lot of analysts said that pre-Covid was peak oil demand. More people are going to work remotely, which means less commuting and less consumption. More businesses are going to conduct meetings via Zoom instead of flying to different locations, which also means less consumption.

Do I think the “pre-Covid era” was peak oil demand? I think so, but it’s difficult to say with certainty.

The future of oil

I do believe, however, that the overall demand for oil will trend down going forward. With that said, oil producers are focused on their bottom line. If they see demand trending down, they’ll be inclined to reduce production to protect the price per barrel from plummeting.

There’s another force at play here – clean energy. We will continue to see start-ups and agile new companies bring new technology to market. I think the runway for clean energy, in terms of growth and return potential, is very large. However, don’t count out the big energy companies quite yet.

These companies (Exxon, BP, Chevron, and the like) have been investing a lot of money in green/clean energy. They see the forces at play and they see the direction in which the market is going. It’s in their best interest to plan for an energy market dominated by renewables.

How should we invest?

That’s a good question and due to regulatory constraints, I can’t tell you specifically. Do I think there’s a place for oil in your portfolio? Maybe in the short-term, but not for long.

Investing in energy will be more nuanced than it has in the past. Big oil companies, as I mentioned, are investing in clean energy, but I believe renewable startups and green energy companies will attract the majority of investment.

Keep up to date with what’s happening in the energy market and do your due diligence when it comes to selecting investments.

Inflation

Inflation will most likely increase. Many projections estimate the FED will meet/beat their target of 2%.

I do believe that an increase in goods and services will not affect demand as it would have in the past. Stimulus payments to consumers created enough excess cash that people didn’t mind, or even notice, an increase in prices.

I do realize I’m painting with a broad brush here, and undoubtedly there will be some that will notice the difference. I’m simply stating that demand will not suffer from price creep as it used to, at least while the government continues writing checks.

Gold

We could see another uptrend in gold. There’s a certain recipe that makes the case for a bullish perspective on gold – inflation pressures, increased money supply, and low-interest rates.

The FED continues to supply the market with liquidity with its asset-buying program. An increase in the money supply dilutes the value of the dollar (USD). When the USD decreases in value, typically gold does well.

There is a caveat to that, however. Demand for US Treasury securities is weakening, specifically from foreign investors. To double down on that, foreign investors are net sellers of Treasuries. There have to be enough buyers to meet Treasury issuance, otherwise, the FED won’t have enough “reserves” to inject liquidity into the system.

With regard to low rates, that is a good sign for gold, but it’s also a good sign for equities (companies) with a high tendency to borrow. I’m mainly looking at the technology sector. Especially these unicorns that have high valuations, but low (or negative) profits.

Semiconductors

There’s also a current market disruption at play here…semiconductor shortage. Demand across many applications are at multi-year, sometimes multi-decade, highs. Personal computers, electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles, AI, and the like all use semiconductors.

A semiconductor shortage has many implications:

Decrease in production
Price increase
Nationalist mentality
R&D disruption

A decrease in production can hurt the bottom line. It all depends on when the shortage ends. If production reduces enough for a sustained period, adjustments will have to be made by corporations.

A price increase is likely because of supply and demand dynamics. The price of semiconductors will go up, so the price of the products they’re used in will also go up. This could hurt demand for those products and could hurt consumers.

There are a select few companies that supply the majority of the world’s semiconductors. This could have a similar effect as Covid had with regard to supply chain management. Companies relied on global trade and cooperation to sustain their supply chain operations. When countries shut down due to the pandemic, global trade suffered as a result. Countries might shift to manufacturing their own semiconductors instead of relying on supply from trading partners.

Semiconductors are only getting less expensive and more efficient. With a shortage, and possibly less money coming into the manufacturers, it’s possible that this dynamic of cheaper and better plateaus…at least temporarily. It’s also possible that the shortage improves operations and makes the manufacturers more agile. Some countries have a very unique ability to progress, strengthen, and adapt when a roadblock presents itself.

With that said, I believe semiconductors will be a great investment opportunity. Their demand is only going to increase because of the push to provide the world with electric vehicles and clean energy. I would, however, pay attention to the shortage and I might wait until that shortage ends and prices stabilize.

What Is An NFT?

April 14, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

The acronym NFT has been in the media a lot in the last year. With more of us at home and the US government supplying stimulus money, people have been looking for something to do and ways to make money. Enter in the NFT. The question is, what is an NFT and how do they work?

What is an NFT?

NFT stands for non-fungible token. Non-fungible means that it’s unique and can’t be replaced by something else of similar value. For example, if you had a $10 bill, but wanted change, there are two different ways to get $10 in change. Currency is fungible because it can be exchanged for a different type of currency of similar value.

NFT’s are part of the blockchain (most popularly the Ethereum blockchain). Ethereum is a cryptocurrency. Ethereum differs from the “mainstream” Bitcoin because it is open source, which means it can be edited, updated, and/or improved upon.

NFT’s can be used to sell digital art (music, photos, videos, etc.).

How’s it work with the artist?

NFT’s could give artists a more significant piece of the pie when selling their work. Right now, most of the profit goes to middlemen/women. Authentication in the form of NFT would enable the artist to participate more in the revenue sharing of their work.

On the other side of that coin, if you’re buying NFT’s, you have the ability to support your favorite artists. Also, owning the NFT is akin to owning the original. You’re able to “use” it without the fear of being sued for copyright infringement. The “proof of work” for owning the NFT is recorded on the blockchain.

All that being said, owning an NFT just means you own the original version. There can and will be copies of that thing on the internet. Copies can be made much more easily than if those things were in the physical world.

What to watch for

You need to be careful when you are bidding for NFT’s. Someone can create an NFT that’s a copy of an original NFT. Hopefully, though, the questions when creating the NFT weed out the copies and “fakes”.

Additionally, blockchains and cryptocurrencies use an extraordinary amount of energy. The carbon footprint created by mining a single Bitcoin is ginormous (Source).

Should You Invest in Mobile Homes?

March 17, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba 1 Comment

Mobile homes get a bad rap, but they could really be a good place to invest money. Investing in real estate is a good way to diversify your portfolio. Mobile, or manufactured homes, could be a good little niche in that sector. Should you invest in mobile homes?

What is a mobile home?

Mobile homes, also known as manufactured homes, are residential structures built in a factory or separate location and moved to the desired location. These homes are built according to HUD guidelines.

Those guidelines are as follows:

Design and construction
Strength and durability
Transportability
Fire resistance
Energy efficiency
Overall quality

Why invest in mobile homes?

Social stigma around mobile home parks prevent people from investing in them

Investing in individual mobile homes is difficult because the people that rent them are a (and I’m making a big generalization here) a challenging bunch to deal with. Invest in the grounds and infrastructure where the mobile/manufactured homes are.

There are several benefits to investing in mobile home parks:

Recession-resistant (held up through the GFC)
Tenants rarely leave, but sometimes, evictions are necessary (as they are with any real estate endeavor)
Supply is waning, demand is increasing
Predictable maintenance costs
Stigma reduces competition with other investors
Great financing options
Limited need for contractors
They’re inexpensive (you can buy individual units to rent on your property for less than $10,000 – depending on the area and demand)

(List provided by BiggerPockets)

Conclusion

As I mentioned in the beginning, investing in real estate is a great way to diversify your portfolio. It can also be a good way to get a return on your money.

Within the real estate sector, mobile home parks can be a very good niche, for the reasons I mentioned above. Should you invest in mobile homes?

The Federal Reserve

Covid

Investment Implications

Related reading:

Disclaimer:

The Federal Reserve

Commodities

Oil

Investment Opportunities

Related reading:

Disclaimer:

The FED

Commodity Prices

Big Tech

Healthcare

Disclaimer:

Supply disruptions

Stimulus payments and excess savings

Labor shortages

Infrastructure

The Federal Reserve

Related reading:

Disclaimer

Taxing corporations and the wealthy

Government spending

Borrowing costs

Labor

Conclusion

Related reading:

Disclaimer

Government Intervention

Rising Prices

Inflation

Disclaimer

Oil Price, Supply and Demand

The future of oil

How should we invest?

Related reading:

Inflation

Gold

Semiconductors

Related reading:

What is an NFT?

How’s it work with the artist?

What to watch for

Related reading:

What is a mobile home?

Why invest in mobile homes?

Conclusion

Related reading: