Jacob Sensiba, Author at The Free Financial Advisor

Financial Planning Month

October 20, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

October is Financial Planning Month so I want to go into a little detail about why financial planning is so important and what aspects need to be considered.

Now let me start by saying money is not the end all be all, but having some is better than having none. Being financially prepared is incredibly important, both for your psyche and for your budget.

Why financial planning is important

Saving some of what you earn is the first step to financial preparation. Having an emergency fund is essential. Those who don’t have emergency funds probably have to pay for emergencies with credit cards. That leads to debt and money wasted on interest.

What about saving for medium-term goals? Being able to save for a down payment for a house can save you money on your monthly payment, and can make your offer to buy more enticing in this competitive market. The less you “finance” the more you save because you’re not paying (or you’re paying less) interest.

Saving for retirement is paramount. Social security will not pay all of your expenses. You need supplemental income to be able to live when you no longer can earn money.

To be able to save, you need to plan. That plan is called a budget and you need to set one so you know how much you HAVE to spend on necessities, how much to save, and how much you COULD spend on wants.

Planning also matters so you stay out of debt. Unplanned expenses come up and it’s vital to have money saved up during those times.

What goes into a financial plan

A few of them I’ve mentioned so far – having an emergency fund, having a savings plan in place for medium-term goals, having a retirement plan in place for when you need it, and budgeting.

A great financial plan takes two approaches – macro and micro. A macro view of your financial plan is more of an outline. How much do you save for this, that, and the other (emergencies, short-term and medium-term goals, and retirement).

The micro has to do with the details and how you meet those goals. What kind of debt payments do I need to make in order to have it paid off in three years? How much do I need to save per month to have my down payment ready? How much do I need to save, given a projected ROI, to meet my retirement nest egg goal?

Insurance

Another important piece to your financial plan is your insurance. Are your home and vehicles adequately protected? Are you protected? Is your ability to earn a living protected? Making sure you have proper coverage for your property, liability, and your life is vital.

Estate planning

Creating a plan for yourself and for your family is the last step. If you have assets you want to leave them and/or liabilities you want to take care of, you need to spell that out in a legal document (like a will or a trust). An estate plan is all-encompassing and needs to include your investments, property, liabilities, and insurance.

Disclaimer:

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see the website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com

Who Needs to Worry About the Stock Market and Why?

October 6, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba 1 Comment

Earlier this week we saw the NASDAQ take a dive and Facebook lost 5% in one day. Volatility is part of the stock market. That’s how it’s been and I think that’s how it’s always going to be. Suffice it to say that the stock market is otherwise unpredictable and it’s something that investors are aware of. But who really needs to worry about the stock market?

Who needs to worry?

The complicated answer is, it depends. It depends on what you’re saving for, how old you are, and your time horizon.

Generally speaking, if you’re saving for retirement, the people closer to retirement need to pay attention to the market more than the younger people. That’s also why asset allocation is important. The closer you are to retirement, the more money you should have in less risky investments.

Time Horizon

If you have a short-term goal you’re saving for then you have to be a little more careful. If you’re saving for college, for example, the closer you get to having to use those funds to pay for college, the more conservative you’ll have to be.

What happens in the stock market only concerns people with a short time horizon. I actually should phrase it differently. What happens in the stock market SHOULD only concern people with a short time horizon.

Asset Allocation

When I say all of these things, I’m specifically talking about broad-based financial planning. People who are saving for a particular goal and are using asset allocation for their investments. Meaning they’re selecting mutual funds or ETFs that follow some sort of index. If you’re investing in specific stocks or thematic ETFs, then you probably have to pay a little more attention.

And I’m not saying that people with long-term time horizons shouldn’t pay attention to their accounts. I’m simply saying that they shouldn’t live and die on what the value of their account is day in and day out. Don’t worry about the stock market.

Disclaimer:

What Currently Present a Risk to Markets?

September 22, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Where is the market going? What kind of risks do we need to be aware of? There are three or four things to pay attention to right now. The FED, interest rates, inflation, Covid, China, the government, and geopolitics. Do any of these present a risk to markets?

Okay, more than three or four things, but the first three can all be lumped together. Interest rate policy is enacted by the FED and what happens with interest rates has a direct impact on inflation. Furthermore, the government also has a chance to impact inflation.

And I apologize if we bounce around a little from topic to topic.

The FED, Interest Rates, Inflation

The government and the FED have a lot of control over what inflation is going to do. We had a lot of liquidity injected into the market because of the pandemic, and there’s a very good chance we’ll see more of that in the near future.

A $3.5 trillion bill is circulating through Congress right now. If this bill gets passed, we’ll have a lot more liquidity injected into the market. That’s likely to be a large tailwind for inflation (which is already running much hotter than expected). If the FED continues to provide an accommodative monetary policy, we’ll see inflation get out of control, and they’ll have to increase interest rates much sooner than they had planned.

Covid

Covid is still hanging around. 75% of the country has received at least one shot and now the administration is pushing booster shots. This is even after the CDC and the WHO have insisted on holding off on a third shot until less fortunate countries have a chance to get more of their first poke. The numbers need to level off soon or I fear lockdowns may rear their ugly head, and we all know how much the economy liked that the first time around.

China

China is a new story. Specifically, Evergrande. The ginormous real estate company is on the brink of bankruptcy. Comparisons have been made to the collapse of Lehman Brothers during the GFC (great financial crisis). We’ll see what happens and if the Chinese government decides to step in. Ripple effects through the global monetary system are possible.

Geopolitics

The last story is geopolitics. This has to do with the deal the US and Australia struck to help the Australian government build nuclear-capable submarines. It angered France because they already had a deal with Australia to help them build submarines (not nuclear-capable though). Britain feels pretty good because they helped broker the US/Aussie deal. Most likely, this will end up being only noise but could present a risk to markets. Something to keep your eye on.

Disclaimer:

My Thoughts on Climate Change

September 8, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

There’s no doubt climate change is a problem and this post isn’t going to be me grandstanding about the dire consequences of no action, and it certainly won’t be refuting that climate change is real. This post will specifically be about what I think the free market will do to fix it and what us ordinary people can do to contribute positively to the situation.

Now I have to admit, when it comes to understanding climate change and acting in a fashion that would make some sort of positive impact on our current direction, I’ve taken a more laid-back approach.

I was annoyed by both sides of the argument as I felt they were both taking an extreme stance (shocking right?). Also, I feel like humanity has a beautifully unique ability to figure things out when it’s necessary.

If you want to learn more about the evidence and facts surrounding climate change, here are two sources – Climate.NASA.gov and Climate.gov.

Tech Meets Climate Change

There are a plethora of inventions, some being used right now and some still in the works, that will help fight climate change. Because there are so many and I want to spotlight as many as I can that seems like a good idea, I’m going to organize them in a few ways.

Alternative Energy – Massive palm tree wind farms, future iterations of solar panels, kinetic pavement, new power transfer technologies, nuclear fusion.

Save the atmosphere – Drone that plant trees, satellites that spot methane leaks, giant vacuums to clean carbon from the air.

Save the environment – pumps that cool coral reefs, plastic eating enzymes, encourage phytoplankton to grow using technology, futuristic agriculture, protect bees.

Uncategorizable – genetic modification, solar geoengineering.

What can you do?

Like I said in the beginning, climate change is a problem, but human beings are smart enough and innovative enough to find solutions to fix it. In the meantime, there are some things you can do to help.

Have an energy audit
Change your light bulbs to LEDs
Replace HVAC filters frequently
Wash clothes in cold water
Upcycle furniture
Recycle clothes
Unplug electronic devices when not in use
Obsess over every drop of water
Recycle
Hand dry your clothes
Reduce food waste
Don’t drink bottled water
Carpool or take public transportation

There are a lot of things you can do to make an impact. If everyone contributed a little to the cause, maybe we can move the needle.

Sources:

Globalcitizen.org

BBC.CO.UK

Archive.curbed.com

Disclaimer:

Technological Investment Opportunities

August 25, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Throughout history, some of the best companies are ones that created a product or service that solved a problem. I believe the vast majority of successful companies in the future are going to be technological or innovative in nature. In the coming years, there will be incredible technological investment opportunities. Here are some areas I think we should watch.

Space

When billionaires start spending billions of dollars, it’s hard to ignore. Especially, when all eyes seem to be on them when they’re making these gigantic moves. When it comes to colonizing Mars, space tourism, and all of that, it’s hard to see, at least right now, a company being able to profit on this segment. Eventually, we’ll be advanced enough that it’ll happen, but I don’t know how far away that is.

When it comes to sending satellites to orbit and payloads to the International Space Station (ISS), profitability seems more likely and much sooner.

Medical equipment/Pharmaceuticals

These are separate sectors, but I’m lumping them together for the sake of organization. I do this because they are both going after the same goal, making the human population healthier. They are doing this by helping cure diseases and making it more efficient and effective to maintain health.

There are plenty of diseases that need cures and a lot of self-sabotaging behaviors that humans need help with. It’d be silly to think that this area won’t be innovative and an incredible technological investment opportunity.

Renewable energy/Nuclear fusion/Clean up carbon emissions/environment

I’m not going to lie, with regard to the areas/sectors in this article, this section is my favorite. With all of the reports, publications, politicians, and scientists sounding the alarm bell about climate change, it’s impossible to ignore the technological investment opportunities coming down the pike.

Fintech

I’ll be perfectly honest, I’m not 100% sure what kind of advancements will come out in the financial technology space that hasn’t come out already. Perhaps what will end up happening is more efficient iterations of the processes, programs, and products we have right now.

Robotics/AI

Right after the renewable energy section of this post, in terms of my favorite, is this one because it has the ability to have an impact on everything.

Here’s the challenging part, at least challenging in terms of investability. There are going to be a lot of companies that invest in AI and machine learning. The biggest spenders and investors of AI technology are large technology companies that exist already.

Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and the like are already changing the game for AI. Finding a smaller company whose sole product/service is AI is going to be tough, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible.

There are a lot of cutting-edge, technological investment opportunities that will present themselves in the future. Make sure you’re paying attention and take advantage of those opportunities.

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What Does an Increase in Yields Look Like?

August 4, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

I’m not going to lie. I had a lot of trouble coming up with the substance for today’s article. There have been developments since I wrote two weeks ago, but that hasn’t really changed some of the things I’ve said before. I still see inflation as a problem and I still see investment opportunities in a select few areas. What does an increase in yields mean?

The Federal Reserve

The one new piece of information that is worth noting is that the FED has indicated that if the information supports their narrative, they will decrease their asset purchasing program later this year.

That’s a very significant piece of news and the market knows it. Yields increased immediately, only by 7 basis points, or .07%. That may sound like a small move, but in a couple of minutes, that’s HUGE.

Covid

Two weeks ago I mentioned the possibility of mask mandates and stay-at-home orders. I thought that the Delta variant was causing enough worry and panic that this could happen.

In the United States, we have not seen any stay-at-home orders, but we have seen mask mandates and vaccination requirements. Outside of the U.S., however, we have seen a crackdown on domestic and international travel.

There’s a possibility that we see more stay-at-home orders as the Delta variant continues to spread and increase the number of Covid cases.

Investment Implications

With the threat of inflation becoming more poignant and stay-at-home orders becoming more likely, what are the investment implications?

When it comes to inflation, the short-term effects will be much more dramatic and noticeable than the long-term effects. I think a rise in inflation and a drying up of liquidity will have broad, negative effects throughout the financial system.

An increase in yields will cause bond prices to drop. An increase in yields will make servicing that debt more expensive, so it’s likely R&D spending will go down. It could also negatively affect sectors that rely on borrowing.

There’s also a chance that people will save more. An increase in yields means the interest rate for their savings account will go up, making saving more attractive. If you want to save, try signing up to Digit.

An increase in yields could also cause a migration from “riskier” assets to assets deemed less risky.

Only time will tell what inflation will look like, how the FED will respond, and what the implications will be.

Disclaimer:

The Resurgence of Covid and What it Means

July 21, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

In today’s post, we’re going to talk about the investment and economic implications caused by the resurgence of Covid-19 due to the delta variant. Supply and logistics changed dramatically last year when parts of the world shut down. Delivery times slowed down and costs increased because of lack of supply and disrupted logistics.

We started to see a recovery. Supply issues started to resolve themselves. Supply chain constraints started to get better. Costs for items (due to chip shortages and increases in energy prices) started to level out.

So what’s going to happen if we have a resurgence of Covid and things shut down, or slow down, again?

The Federal Reserve

Like everything, only time will tell. The FED gave a little glimpse into what their plans were for interest rates and quantitative easing at the last meeting. They state that if the economy continues to improve as it has been, they might reduce their balance sheet and consider increasing interest rates by the end of 2023.

If the delta variant causes enough of a disruption, that could push back their timeline for ending/implementing such a plan. In either case, they’ve stated that they will continue with easy monetary policy for the foreseeable future, even if inflation starts to run hot.

Commodities

If the risks around Covid-19 continue to present themselves, we’ll continue to see moves in important items, including the US Dollar, Gold, Treasuries, Yields, and Oil.

In risk-on environments, the USD, gold, and Treasuries typically increase in value. Yields usually will go down as well. The only X-factor when it comes to economics and commodities is oil. The change in the price of oil is very different this time because of travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders.

Oil

Demand for oil went straight down, so oil prices went down. Major oil producers needed to then reduce production to decrease supply so prices could recover. Then demand started to pick up and oil prices quickly came back so production needed to increase to level off prices.

With all that said, oil prices and the major producers’ production will be range-bound for a while. The delta variant is causing too much worry to peg a direction for oil in the near term.

Long-term, I think oil will recover to pre-pandemic levels for a little while, but as electric vehicles and renewable energy become more commonplace, I think demand will dry up. Then prices will go down as a result. How much the price of oil goes down, only time will tell.

Investment Opportunities

If there’s a resurgence of Covid or not, there are a few opportunities I think will transcend the short-term volatility, and I’ve talked about them before. Clean energy and healthcare. I think both of these industries, in terms of runway, are in their infancy.

Healthcare has come so ridiculously far over the years, but I feel there’s so much room to run yet. Clean energy is just getting started. With countries and companies vowing to reduce carbon emissions to zero over the coming years, or decades, there will be rapid advancement in this sector.

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Investment Concerns and Opportunities

July 7, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

There are investment concerns and opportunities pretty much any way you turn. Healthcare looks great, but what about the costs associated with treatment? Technology is improving every day, but what’s going to happen with possible regulations? Is the FED going to pop our bubble?

Plenty can happen so let’s explore it together.

The FED

The FED doesn’t appear like it’ll stop its asset-buying program and accommodative monetary policy anytime soon, and it said just that in its most recent meeting.

That’s a good sign for the economy and for certain sectors. The industries that find the most favor are those that use heavy borrowing to facilitate growth efforts. These include construction, retail, information technology, transportation, and healthcare.

Commodity Prices

We continue to see a rise in commodity prices. Copper, oil, and lumber are all near record highs. I believe we’ll continue to see a steady increase in the price of copper. Copper is used in electronics, and with the further development of new technology, electric and autonomous vehicles, and green energy…the demand for the metal is just getting started.

Big Tech

Silicon Valley is bracing for possible regulatory troubles. There’s a new head of the FTC and she has her gloves on. Big tech has come under increased scrutiny in a few areas, including content, privacy, and antitrust. This causes investment concerns.

The federal government has a problem with social platforms and some of the content users post on their sites. There’s a thin line these companies walk because they can’t censor speech and they can’t promote speech. But some people post very harmful and hurtful things.

Also, antitrust cases are likely to come in full force because some of these companies are so gosh darn huge. They have so much pull, so much money, and too much market share (in a lot of cases).

What’s more, they no longer hide that they harness user data to make money. How much they sell to other parties and what they sell isn’t entirely known, but their privacy issues are also coming to head.

With all of that said, compliance costs are going to increase. What those companies look like and what they’re allowed to do will likely look different than what it is now. Only time will tell what happens to these companies.

Healthcare

I’m reading and hearing more and more excitement about the healthcare space and the investment opportunities that lie within. The speed at which the globe was able to produce three or four viable and useful vaccines for Covid is incredible. I heard today that it’s the first vaccine to be created in less than 5 years.

The global population is getting older by the day. Not only that, but the baby boomer generation is around retirement age, so they’re going to require more medical attention.

Prescriptions, medical devices, new and improved medical technologies are going to treat and possibly cure more and more illnesses.

Telemedicine looks to be a great investment opportunity. Last year, medical attention was quite high but 90% of that was done in person. Virtual visits, remote monitoring, and in-home testing will grow in popularity.

Investment concerns and opportunities abound, I’m excited for what’s to come in the tech and healthcare spaces.

Disclaimer:

What’s The Federal Reserve Going To Do?

June 23, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

There’s a lot going on in the world right now. Supply disruptions, stimulus payments, excess savings, labor shortages, and infrastructure are all playing a role in economic policy. In today’s post, I want to try and explain how they all play a factor with regard to how the FED determines policy.

Supply disruptions

Inherently, supply disruptions don’t have much to do with how the federal reserve coordinates monetary policy. The biggest supply disruption we have at the moment involves semiconductors.

The wide applicability of semiconductors makes them very important in product development and deployment. What’s more, the number of semiconductors needed just keeps growing.

The bad news is…there’s a supply shortage. That creates upward pressure on price. Not only for the semiconductors themselves but also for the products that use them.

Stimulus payments and excess savings

When Covid hit, the world shut down. People were out of work, so they didn’t spend money. People didn’t spend money, so businesses started losing revenue. In order to prevent total economic collapse, the government sent stimulus checks to qualifying individuals and boosted unemployment.

A lot of people saved this “extra” money and recently started to spend it. Jobs are starting to come back and the global economy is starting to look healthy. Confidence inspires spending. Increased consumer spending is good for the economy.

Labor shortages

Labor has become a big topic of conversation. Not only do we have more jobs available than we have people to take those jobs, but workers are quitting in large numbers. Both of those factors can have a large impact on wages.

Employers are having trouble filling roles. How can they attract applicants? Better wages and benefits? For those that can afford bigger payroll, that’s the avenue they’re using. That puts upward pressure on wages.

I also mentioned workers are quitting in droves. Employees are demanding to be fairly compensated and enough of them are banding together now. Improved benefits and increased wages are becoming more likely.

Wage inflation helps feed the price inflation narrative. The prices for products and services go up because of supply and demand factors. Wage inflation increases due to supply and demand dynamics.

These two inflationary pressures feed on each other. Wages go up so workers can afford more. Prices go up because workers can buy more, and so on.

Infrastructure

News broke about a new infrastructure bill (Source). On top of, already, record-breaking government spending, that’ll juice our GDP numbers for 2021.

I don’t have much else to say about this other than the spending involved will create inflationary pressures AND I’m proud there was bipartisan support for this bill. Not something we see very often anymore, so I’m happy it turned out this way.

The Federal Reserve

With all of that said, what’s the federal reserve going to do? If inflationary pressures are as hot as they seem, I fear the FED will have no option, but to end their accommodating stance on monetary policy.

They’ve already indicated that a rise in interest rates in Q3 or Q4 of 2023 is likely. They claim that they will let inflation run past their 2% target but by how much? At one point do they say enough is enough?

That’s a tough question to answer. I think in this situation, they’re talking bigger than what they’ll actually deliver. It’s all well and good if they say they’re going to let inflation run, but we’ll see what actually happens when that gets here.

Disclaimer

Economic Pressures

June 9, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

There’s a lot of movement in the economy. Several different news threads and innovations have the ability to change the direction and velocity in which our economy moves. In today’s newsletter, we’re going to talk about some of those economic pressures, what they entail, and what they mean for our economy.

Taxing corporations and the wealthy

A news story recently came out about taxes. More specifically, this news shed light on how the wealthy manipulate the tax code in their favor.

I think the information shared in this story was well known already, or assumed rather, but served as a confirmation. A large number of wealthy individuals aren’t “paying their fair share” in taxes.

This will only add fuel to the fire. The fire I’m talking about is the tax overhaul in the tax code. The Biden administration has said that they want to increase taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals/families.

If they’re successful, it would mean more tax revenue for the federal government, which is a good thing. Is there a chance that the increase in taxes creates a disincentive for those corporations and wealthy individuals?

Perhaps, but I don’t think it’s very likely, broadly speaking. I have only one reason…those corporations and individuals are good at making money, and I believe that will continue.

Government spending

As I said, the change in the tax code will generate more income for the federal government. You may be thinking, “Great! We can reduce the national debt!”

I think that’s very unlikely. That may sound skeptical, and it probably is on some level, but both parties are spenders now. It doesn’t matter if it’s a Republican or a Democrat in the White House, they’re both going to print money to push forward their agenda.

Borrowing costs

I’ve talked about inflation a lot lately, and I promise I’ll tone down after I make this point, but I haven’t explained why runaway inflation is a bad thing.

Now don’t get me wrong, there are advantages (i.e. increased rates on savings accounts), but the disadvantage is higher prices. Households can run into trouble because they can’t afford necessities anymore.

The larger problem, however, is the cost of borrowing. Over the last, almost 15 years, rates have been low. And they’ve stayed low, other than an attempt to increase in 2018.

People and corporations borrowed a lot of money. Some bought things they didn’t need. Others to increase research, development, and innovation. Some people used record amounts of leverage to take part in the wild stock market (as of late).

With that said, the cost of borrowing will go up and the cost to service that debt will go up. The higher rates go, the more money that will be needed to pay for/down the debt. When that happens, less money will be spent on “productive” things.

That can slow growth and negatively impact the economy. That’s why central banks reduce rates in times of negative or low economic growth. It reduces borrowing costs and incentivizes people and companies to spend money instead of saving it.

Labor

The last thing I’ll say that has the ability to tie into the last point is the current labor shortage. There are more jobs available right now than people to take those jobs.

Small businesses, in particular, find it especially difficult to fill vacancies. Couple a labor shortage with a strong push from workers, unions, and government bodies to increase wages, and you get wage inflation.

When wage inflation becomes more prevalent, price inflation (CPI) becomes more likely. If companies have to pay their employees more, they need to account for that increased expenditure somehow. They turn to increase the prices of their products and/or services.

Demand is unlikely to suffer because of higher wages. People are making more money, so they should be able to afford higher prices, right?

Conclusion

If you read back some of my other posts, you’ll see I’m optimistic in select areas of the market, and I’ll stay optimistic in those areas no matter what type of economic pressures the country faces.

With all that I said, I believe there are enough economic pressures to cause a decline in the market and the economy, but there’s no telling when that’ll actually happen.

Why financial planning is important

What goes into a financial plan

Insurance

Estate planning

Related reading:

Disclaimer:

Who needs to worry?

Time Horizon

Asset Allocation

Related reading:

Disclaimer:

The FED, Interest Rates, Inflation

Covid

China

Geopolitics

Related reading:

Disclaimer:

Tech Meets Climate Change

What can you do?

Related reading:

Sources:

Disclaimer:

Space

Medical equipment/Pharmaceuticals

Renewable energy/Nuclear fusion/Clean up carbon emissions/environment

Fintech

Robotics/AI

Related Reading:

Disclaimer:

The Federal Reserve

Covid

Investment Implications

Related reading:

Disclaimer:

The Federal Reserve

Commodities

Oil

Investment Opportunities

Related reading:

Disclaimer:

The FED

Commodity Prices

Big Tech

Healthcare

Disclaimer:

Supply disruptions

Stimulus payments and excess savings

Labor shortages

Infrastructure

The Federal Reserve

Related reading:

Disclaimer

Taxing corporations and the wealthy

Government spending

Borrowing costs

Labor

Conclusion

Related reading:

Disclaimer