risk management Archives - The Free Financial Advisor

Four Tips For Avoiding Cryptocurrency Scams

April 6, 2022 by Susan Paige Leave a Comment

The demand for cryptocurrency has become a global craze today, creating more opportunities for scammers. Whether you’re an experienced or new trader, you might fall into a cryptocurrency scam when you’re not careful. Therefore, you could lose a lot or even all of your hard-earned investment or assets.

Investing in cryptos has now become a trend worldwide. Scammers now have many ways to encourage or pursue people to fall into their schemes with the advent of technology.

Here are some ways to combat or avoid cryptocurrency scams:

Be Careful Of The Apps You’re Installing

Because apps have many functions and provide several benefits to their users, crypto scammers use them to mimic other apps and use them to their advantage. If you fail to see the warning signs of these fake apps, you’re at risk of having your vital information stolen from you.

For instance, they may have mimicked a crypto trading app. When you’re not careful, you may install and use it without knowing the danger it can cause you. It may work at first, but the app could steal your cryptocurrencies in no time. This is possible when hackers present you with an address to send your payments or receive your funds. However, you may be sending your funds or cryptos to the fraudster’s crypto wallet address instead. You can’t undo such transactions, so you’re left feeling helpless when this happens.

Hence, you should always check the publisher’s credentials when downloading from the Google Play Store or Apple Store apps to avoid such scams. For example, you may look at here now if you want to download an Australian crypto exchange. You may also download a given link from a trusted source or the app developer’s official website.

Learn About Crypto Pyramid Schemes

Some fraudsters may show that their new ‘crypto’ is steadily gaining value by running a website. Unfortunately, they can make fake ‘real-time transaction logs’ or ‘mining and trading’ activity appear legit. They may even ‘prove’ that the crypto investors are doing well by showing regular payouts. These are all ways to encourage you to join the craze as one of their investors.

When you make an account and invest in them, they’re more likely to create fake growth of your initial investment. It may show your gains and the period limit you should withdraw them.

However, your earnings may come from the funds of other investors. This means they’re using other investors’ money to create interests or dividends on your account. Thus, the crypto you thought was yours could be a nonexistent fund. This scam is popularly known as Ponzi or pyramid scheme, named after Charles Ponzi, a con artist and swindler in the 1920s (per wikipedia).

What you can do to avoid such is to ensure that crypto exists. You must research the crypto you intend to invest your money in, its founders, and its utility. Check out third-party websites or review sites to know their legitimacy. If you can’t find one or only see one or two review articles about it, your best course is to avoid it right away.

Don’t Fall For Giveaway Scams

Fraudsters also use the names of influencers or celebrities. They’ll try to promote their crypto offerings using famous personalities to organize fake giveaways. Some even use fake accounts to respond to the giveaway post so that it would appear legit.

In this scheme, you may see a QR code or link to a website where you’ll enter your credentials to participate. They may ask for your crypto wallet address for ‘verification’ purposes before they can send you the ‘giveaway,’ which we all know would never come any day soon.

Hence, if the giveaway seems too good to be true, disregard it altogether. Moreover, never enter your wallet address in such cases. Legit crypto companies will never ask for your crypto-wallet information.

Picture of a man whose cryptocurrency wallet has been stolen.,

Read About Initial Coin Offering (ICO) Scams

The ICO is like a stock’s initial public offering where founders will outsource funds to support their crypto project or development. As an investor, you will receive the issuance of such cryptos in exchange for the funds you pledged.

Some ICOs may not come from well-established companies. Hence, you should see if the company has any operating history or perform a background check on the management team and developers of the ICOs. It may be best to shy away from such if you can’t find any trustworthy information on them or they don’t provide a whitepaper. There’s a big chance they’ll abandon their investors once they’ve collected the funds, so you’ll never hear from them again.

Conclusion: Be Safe, Stick To Major Well Known Platforms and Avoid Sketchy Links

The best way to avoid crypto scams is to buy or sell cryptos on a legitimate trading platform. Ensure you double-check links or apps before clicking on them. Furthermore, consider the tips mentioned here, so you’ll be safe from inviting schemes of crypto scammers.

For more great Free Financial Advisor articles, read these:

How To Increase Your Net Worth

Financial Resolutions, Debt, Saving and Crypto

Should You be Investing In Shiba Inu?

Is The ADA Cardano Going To The Moon?

Investment Risks in the World Today

March 16, 2022 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

The world is crazy right now. The war with Russia and Ukraine has created investment risks and opportunities with commodities, specifically. Inflation is also an issue. What do you do with all of these moving parts in the global economy?

Gold

Gold has only gone up since the war began, up over $2,000 for the first time since 2020. The reason being is that gold is a store of value and is often seen as a safe asset during times of uncertainty, like war, inflation, or a pandemic.

Gold isn’t the only asset that’s used in times of uncertainty. Cash, bonds, and other precious metals have also seen a massive inflow lately.

Crypto

Cryptocurrencies have also seen a run-up in recent weeks, for two reasons. One, some people do see cryptocurrencies as a store of value like gold. And two, cryptocurrencies have played a role in this war. Because Russia has been cut off, financially, from the rest of the world, they’ve used crypto to finance operations. Ukraine has done the same, but for the reason of being able to raise money from different channels.

Oil

The price of oil has been on a roller coaster since the war began. Russia supplies a lot of energy to the world. It supplies the U.S. with just 3% of oil, but it supplies Europe with most of what they use. That said, the price of oil went up very fast to about $125/barrel because the US and other countries blocked them off to further disrupt their finances.

It’s come back down since then thanks to OPEC+. They pledged to increase production to make up for the loss in supply.

Inflation

Inflation is off the charts right now. The most recent reading came in at 7.9%. There are quite a few things that are seeing the effects of it. Food is getting more expensive. Gas, obviously, due to supply constraints and inflation is getting more expensive. Property is also getting more expensive. Interest rates are going up as well. My wife and I refinanced late last year and locked our rate in at 3%. The most recent reading came in at 4.5%.

The FED is going to make some moves as well. Because of the war with Russia and Ukraine, they will take a more measured and conservative approach, so it’s possible that inflation is a problem for longer because the FED won’t hike rates as quickly as they may have previously intended.

Commodities

There are some other commodities, besides gold and other precious metals, that are feeling a pinch due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. Wheat is the biggest example of this because between Russia and Ukraine, they produce and ship a third of the world’s wheat.

Unintended consequences

Even though the war is between two countries, it’s affecting everything (though differently than how it’s affecting Russia and Ukraine). There are logistical problems that are delaying shipments of things. The air space above the scuffle is off-limits, so flights around the area are taking longer than they previously would have. Longer flights = more fuel and reduced volume on flights = increased costs.

There are a lot of investment risks and opportunities due to the moving parts in the world right now and the market will continue to be volatile until things settle down. If you have time to ride out some ugly markets, stick to your plan. If you’re in retirement or close to retirement, reducing your risk might not be a bad idea.

Disclaimer:

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see the website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com

Jacob Sensiba

My name is Jacob Sensiba and I am a Financial Advisor. My areas of expertise include, but are not limited to, retirement planning, budgets, and wealth management. Please feel free to contact me at: jacob@crgfinancialservices.com

www.crgfinancialservices.com/

Finance Lessons Learned from the Pandemic

February 23, 2022 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

The Covid-19 pandemic changed life for two years and there are definitely still elements of what life was in the world today. No doubt there were some terrible things that happened. People lost their lives and their jobs. But there were also positives that came out of it. We’re going to highlight the lesson we can learn from this pandemic, particularly some personal finance lessons we can learn.

Working from home

This new type of work does not apply to everyone and I don’t like leaving people out, but this needs to be talked about. Working from home and articles about it took over during the pandemic and continue to be discussed.

Working from home, at least from some of those articles and studies, appears to be a net positive for employees and employers. Let time commuting, less overhead costs, more productivity thanks to no commute, increased job satisfaction, and improved work-life balance.

Thanks to the work-from-home setup, people who were able to do that moved out of the city or rented an Airbnb for an extended amount of time. In either case, those people were, likely, able to reduce their housing costs by moving to the suburbs or giving themself a little vacation/change of scenery.

Savings rate

A lot of people saved money during the pandemic thanks to stimulus payments. In April of 2020, the personal savings rate for Americans was 33%. In March of 2021, the personal savings rate for Americans was 26.6%.

The savings rate has fallen since then but is still above 12% which is higher than it was before the pandemic (less than 10%).

Stimulus payments

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), most Americans either saved or paid down debt with the majority of their stimulus payments. 40% of the stimulus payment was spent, 30% was saved and another 30% was used to pay down debt.

Personal finance lessons

I think there were a lot of personal finance lessons that can be learned from the pandemic. Here’s a list of them below:

People saved more money

The future was very uncertain so people were more conservative with their spending and less conservative with their savings. That mindset shouldn’t change. The future, in principle, is uncertain. We do not know what tomorrow holds, so saving for a rainy day/goals/retirement is very important.

You don’t need to spend money to have fun

At the very beginning of the pandemic, you couldn’t go anywhere. Quarantine and lockdown orders came in right away. Instead of getting together in person, people utilized Facetime, phone calls, and Zoom. I, personally, had group Zooms with family members where we played and had conversations like we would if we were in person.

Diversification is important

Early in the pandemic, the market tanked. We lost over 30% in six weeks. Granted, it came right back up not long after, but that might not always be the case. If you don’t have time to ride out the ebbs and flows of the market, it’s important you get your asset allocation right. Talk with your adviser to make sure your investment matches your time horizon and risk tolerance.

Get rid of debt

You never know when your job and your ability to earn can be taken from you. Some people lost their jobs, some people were furloughed, and some people just weren’t able to go to work. If you don’t have an income, the only other part of the balance sheet you can affect is your expenses. Get rid of your debt. That’ll help you reduce your expenses in case that happens (you can also save more).

Protect your loved ones

Get life insurance. A lot of people passed away during the pandemic. If you contribute income to your household, you need to make sure you financially protect the people that rely on your income.

Disclaimer:

Jacob Sensiba

www.crgfinancialservices.com/

Retirement Costs to Consider

January 5, 2022 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

You save for years and years…decades and decades. When you’re saving for retirement, an important consideration to keep in mind when you set your nest egg goal is your retirement costs.

When determining and estimating retirement costs, you need to consider what the average expenses are in general and for the retired folks in your area/state. Once you figure out the generalities, you need to adapt it to your situation.

Some items to consider:

Travel – Will you stay in your current home? Will you move to a warmer state or a state without income tax? Do you have family spread around the country? Will you take vacations on an annual basis? If you’re planning on traveling every year, possibly multiple times per year, it’s important to factor those costs into your monthly/annual budget – so you can save for it.
Healthcare costs – When you get older, your body doesn’t typically work as it has in the past. You are also more susceptible to illness (as we’ve seen over the past two years). As a result, your healthcare costs go up.
Housing – There are a few things to consider when determining your housing costs. Will you stay put or will you move? If you move, will you downsize? If you move, will you move to a different state? Does that state have income taxes? What do you anticipate energy costs will be?

Typical retirement costs

People 65 and older have spent an average of $4,847. On average, utilities, public services, and fuel cost an additional $3,743.

On average, Americans spend $10,160 per year on transportation. Retirees spend a little less. Anywhere between $4,963 and $6,618.

The general American population spends $5,204 on healthcare. Retirees spend between $6,792 and $6,619.

American retirees spend $6,303 on food. They also spend, on average, $2,282 on entertainment.

Expect to spend between 55%-80% of current expenses in retirement.

There are 9 states without a state income tax – Alaska, Florida, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming.

These are the states with the cheapest monthly utilities – Idaho ($343.71), Utah ($350.17), Montana ($359.03), Washington ($369.18), and Nevada ($3376.93).

Conversely, here are the top 5 most expensive ones – Hawaii ($730.86), Alaska ($527.96), Rhode Island ($521.98), Connecticut ($496.07), and New York ($477.31).

Disclaimer:

Jacob Sensiba

www.crgfinancialservices.com/

Managing High Inflation in Retirement

December 29, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Inflation is high. We all know that. I’ve been writing about it for months and it appears that it’s here to stay. With all of that said, I saw a question the other day about how to manage the high inflation when you’re in retirement, and I thought it was a good topic to talk about today. So we’re going to discuss high inflation in retirement, how it’s impacting retirees, budgeting strategies, investment strategy changes, and if inflation will be an ongoing concern for retirees.

Inflation right now

It’s high…no surprise to anyone. In January it was 1.4%, in April it was 4.2%, in July it was 5.4%, in October it was 6.8%, and in December it was 5.9%. That’s historically high. The highest it’s been in 40 years. Will that stay, only time will tell and we’ll get into that later.

How is it impacting retirees?

Things are getting expensive, so when you set a budget at the beginning of your retirement you account for the current price of the things you need. You should also account for increased costs of items as time goes on because there can be big or small increases…either way, prices costs will go up.

Groceries and energy are two prime examples of things that have gotten more expensive recently. So when those things went up in price, it probably pinched people’s budgets, and/or pushed forward costs that probably weren’t expected for several years. Odds are, they’re spending more money now on food and energy than they anticipated. Hopefully, people have been able to make adjustments already.

Budgeting Strategies

There really aren’t a lot of tips I can give you. The best thing I can really say is to cut costs where it makes sense to account for things that are now more expensive. The other tip, though this is more of a gamble, is to not make any changes now and make changes in the future when inflation comes down.

Investment Strategies

With your investment, you’ll need to reallocate some assets. I wouldn’t take any money out of stocks. What I would do is take some money out of your bond investments and put it into precious metals. The FED said that they plan on hiking rates three times in 2022. Bond prices will go down when interest rates go up. Increasing your stock allocation or putting some money in precious metals could be a good way to combat inflation.

High inflation here to stay?

No, I do think it will be here until the FED hikes rates, but my reasoning for that has to do with what happened in 2018. If the FED can raise rates without putting a cork in the recovery, then I think there’s a possibility that inflation and the federal funds rate will stay elevated until the bubble pops.

Disclaimer:

Jacob Sensiba

www.crgfinancialservices.com/

How to Set Investing Goals

December 15, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Saving money for the future is important, but I believe it’s even more important to invest that money and make it work for you. With that said, you can’t just start investing. You need to lay some groundwork first, you need to have goals in mind, and you have to be intentional so that when things get difficult, you stick with the plan instead of abandoning it during the discomfort. Today, we’re going to talk about how to set investing goals.

What kind of goals are there?

There are typically three-goal time horizons: short-term, medium-term, and long-term. A short-term goal is something you plan on achieving in 2-10 years. Saving for a down payment is a pretty common goal that fits into that window. A medium-term goal is 10-20 years. Saving for educational expenses for a child fits into that window. A long-term goal is retirement or anything else that’s 20+ years down the road.

These time windows are my opinion, though I think they’re pretty close to conventional opinion. Also, there are more goals than the ones I listed above.

How to think through your goal-setting

There are three things to keep in mind when you set investing goals (not to mention figuring out the goal itself). How much time do you have? Is this a short-term, medium-term, or long-term goal? Do you have time to take some risks or do you have to play it safe?

Speaking of risk…what are you comfortable with? Usually, this goes hand in hand with how much time you have. A short-term goal like saving for a down payment will need to be invested conservatively, if at all. In this scenario, you’ll have a set price you’re saving for so you can’t take a chance that the market dips and your savings fall below what you need it to be at.

Conversely, when you’re saving for retirement, you’ll have an opportunity to be more aggressive (at least in the beginning) because you have time to make back the money that you’ve potentially lost.

The last part of positioning your portfolio according to your goals is your comfort level/investor psychology. Time horizon and risk tolerance are small factors here, but it’s more about how volatility affects your mind. If the market drops and you’re panicked, maybe you need to be more conservative.

How to invest based on your goals

Here are some thoughts on how to invest based on your goals. If you’re saving for a short-term goal, like a down payment, I wouldn’t even invest it. UNLESS you’re very confident and you’re an expert in the particular field (though that applies to all of the time horizons).

If you’re saving for a medium-term goal, like saving for college, here’s what I’d do. You can be a little aggressive in the beginning because you have time to earn some money back. As you get closer to the end of your window, you’ll need to be more cautious. Maybe start 50/50 (stocks/bonds) and as you get closer, either get out of the market entirely or something like 10/90 or 20/80.

For your long-term goal, you’re able to be more aggressive for a longer period of time. 90/10, 80/20, 70/30, 60/40 all work great here. It depends on what you’re comfortable with. Same as the last one, as you get closer to the end of your window, you need to shift your allocation to be more conservative.

Keep in mind, these are blanket recommendations. I don’t know your situation, so you need to talk to a professional first before you set investing goals and make investment decisions.

Disclaimer:

Jacob Sensiba

www.crgfinancialservices.com/

How to Prep your Finances Before you Quit your Job

November 3, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

There are a lot of jobs open right now. Maybe you’re not particularly happy in your current role so you’re looking for other opportunities. Before you leave, you need to make sure you have your affairs in order. Here’s how to prep your finances before you quit your job.

Some things to make note of first.

Plan Ahead

If you want to quit, but don’t have anything lined up yet, get that process started ASAP. There may be a plethora of jobs available right now, but that doesn’t mean you’re going to get one right away.

Ideally, you’ll have an accepted job offer before you quit your current job, but that won’t apply to everyone.

You could be leaving a hostile work environment, you could have a bad work/life balance, or you’d like to explore different opportunities.

That’s why you must do your best to always be prepared because you never know what is going to happen. You can’t predict the future.

Before you quit your job, here’s what you have to do.

Have Money Saved

Make sure you have money saved. You truly don’t know how long it’s going to take to find another job. That’s why I say you should have one lined up before you quit your current job. That’s also why the common advice is to have 3-6 months of living expenses saved in case you lose your job.

It’s also important to see what’s out there. As I mentioned in the beginning, there are a lot of jobs available, but that doesn’t mean you’re going to find a better one. Do your research.

Prep Your Finances

If you want to be able to have less liquid money available, work on your expenses. Cut down where you can. If you’re servicing debt, get it paid off so you don’t have that liability sitting out there. If you don’t have any liabilities, you remove the chance that you’ll miss a payment (which is bad for your credit score). Your credit score is important in today’s economy, especially when looking for a job.

Back-Up Plan

Whether you are exploring a different field entirely or looking for a better role in your current industry, it’s a good idea to have something to fall back on. Even with a record number of job offerings, the job market is still unpredictable. Make sure you have a contingency job picked out that matches your skillset and expertise just in case the role you’re pursuing doesn’t work out.

Make Money in the Meantime

Learn how to make money…quickly. If the job hunt is taking longer than you expected, find a way to supplement the income you lost. There are several ways to hustle your way into a wage nowadays. Uber, Lyft, Instacart, UpWork, Fiverr, and more. There are plenty of companies that’ll hire you as a contractor. If you’re making money, that could enable you to be very picky on the job you take.

Health Insurance

Last thing. Don’t forget about healthcare costs. If you get benefits from your current job, figure out how/if you’re going to get health insurance while you are out of work. Short-term plans might meet a need if you’re just looking for disaster coverage, but if you’re someone that requires ongoing medical care, there’s probably something else that’ll meet your needs better.

Prep your finances BEFORE you make a move.

Disclaimer:

Jacob Sensiba

www.crgfinancialservices.com/

Technological Investment Opportunities

August 25, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Throughout history, some of the best companies are ones that created a product or service that solved a problem. I believe the vast majority of successful companies in the future are going to be technological or innovative in nature. In the coming years, there will be incredible technological investment opportunities. Here are some areas I think we should watch.

Space

When billionaires start spending billions of dollars, it’s hard to ignore. Especially, when all eyes seem to be on them when they’re making these gigantic moves. When it comes to colonizing Mars, space tourism, and all of that, it’s hard to see, at least right now, a company being able to profit on this segment. Eventually, we’ll be advanced enough that it’ll happen, but I don’t know how far away that is.

When it comes to sending satellites to orbit and payloads to the International Space Station (ISS), profitability seems more likely and much sooner.

Medical equipment/Pharmaceuticals

These are separate sectors, but I’m lumping them together for the sake of organization. I do this because they are both going after the same goal, making the human population healthier. They are doing this by helping cure diseases and making it more efficient and effective to maintain health.

There are plenty of diseases that need cures and a lot of self-sabotaging behaviors that humans need help with. It’d be silly to think that this area won’t be innovative and an incredible technological investment opportunity.

Renewable energy/Nuclear fusion/Clean up carbon emissions/environment

I’m not going to lie, with regard to the areas/sectors in this article, this section is my favorite. With all of the reports, publications, politicians, and scientists sounding the alarm bell about climate change, it’s impossible to ignore the technological investment opportunities coming down the pike.

Fintech

I’ll be perfectly honest, I’m not 100% sure what kind of advancements will come out in the financial technology space that hasn’t come out already. Perhaps what will end up happening is more efficient iterations of the processes, programs, and products we have right now.

Robotics/AI

Right after the renewable energy section of this post, in terms of my favorite, is this one because it has the ability to have an impact on everything.

Here’s the challenging part, at least challenging in terms of investability. There are going to be a lot of companies that invest in AI and machine learning. The biggest spenders and investors of AI technology are large technology companies that exist already.

Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and the like are already changing the game for AI. Finding a smaller company whose sole product/service is AI is going to be tough, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible.

There are a lot of cutting-edge, technological investment opportunities that will present themselves in the future. Make sure you’re paying attention and take advantage of those opportunities.

Disclaimer:

Jacob Sensiba

www.crgfinancialservices.com/

What’s The Federal Reserve Going To Do?

June 23, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

There’s a lot going on in the world right now. Supply disruptions, stimulus payments, excess savings, labor shortages, and infrastructure are all playing a role in economic policy. In today’s post, I want to try and explain how they all play a factor with regard to how the FED determines policy.

Supply disruptions

Inherently, supply disruptions don’t have much to do with how the federal reserve coordinates monetary policy. The biggest supply disruption we have at the moment involves semiconductors.

The wide applicability of semiconductors makes them very important in product development and deployment. What’s more, the number of semiconductors needed just keeps growing.

The bad news is…there’s a supply shortage. That creates upward pressure on price. Not only for the semiconductors themselves but also for the products that use them.

Stimulus payments and excess savings

When Covid hit, the world shut down. People were out of work, so they didn’t spend money. People didn’t spend money, so businesses started losing revenue. In order to prevent total economic collapse, the government sent stimulus checks to qualifying individuals and boosted unemployment.

A lot of people saved this “extra” money and recently started to spend it. Jobs are starting to come back and the global economy is starting to look healthy. Confidence inspires spending. Increased consumer spending is good for the economy.

Labor shortages

Labor has become a big topic of conversation. Not only do we have more jobs available than we have people to take those jobs, but workers are quitting in large numbers. Both of those factors can have a large impact on wages.

Employers are having trouble filling roles. How can they attract applicants? Better wages and benefits? For those that can afford bigger payroll, that’s the avenue they’re using. That puts upward pressure on wages.

I also mentioned workers are quitting in droves. Employees are demanding to be fairly compensated and enough of them are banding together now. Improved benefits and increased wages are becoming more likely.

Wage inflation helps feed the price inflation narrative. The prices for products and services go up because of supply and demand factors. Wage inflation increases due to supply and demand dynamics.

These two inflationary pressures feed on each other. Wages go up so workers can afford more. Prices go up because workers can buy more, and so on.

Infrastructure

News broke about a new infrastructure bill (Source). On top of, already, record-breaking government spending, that’ll juice our GDP numbers for 2021.

I don’t have much else to say about this other than the spending involved will create inflationary pressures AND I’m proud there was bipartisan support for this bill. Not something we see very often anymore, so I’m happy it turned out this way.

The Federal Reserve

With all of that said, what’s the federal reserve going to do? If inflationary pressures are as hot as they seem, I fear the FED will have no option, but to end their accommodating stance on monetary policy.

They’ve already indicated that a rise in interest rates in Q3 or Q4 of 2023 is likely. They claim that they will let inflation run past their 2% target but by how much? At one point do they say enough is enough?

That’s a tough question to answer. I think in this situation, they’re talking bigger than what they’ll actually deliver. It’s all well and good if they say they’re going to let inflation run, but we’ll see what actually happens when that gets here.

Disclaimer

Jacob Sensiba

www.crgfinancialservices.com/

Economic Pressures

June 9, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

There’s a lot of movement in the economy. Several different news threads and innovations have the ability to change the direction and velocity in which our economy moves. In today’s newsletter, we’re going to talk about some of those economic pressures, what they entail, and what they mean for our economy.

Taxing corporations and the wealthy

A news story recently came out about taxes. More specifically, this news shed light on how the wealthy manipulate the tax code in their favor.

I think the information shared in this story was well known already, or assumed rather, but served as a confirmation. A large number of wealthy individuals aren’t “paying their fair share” in taxes.

This will only add fuel to the fire. The fire I’m talking about is the tax overhaul in the tax code. The Biden administration has said that they want to increase taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals/families.

If they’re successful, it would mean more tax revenue for the federal government, which is a good thing. Is there a chance that the increase in taxes creates a disincentive for those corporations and wealthy individuals?

Perhaps, but I don’t think it’s very likely, broadly speaking. I have only one reason…those corporations and individuals are good at making money, and I believe that will continue.

Government spending

As I said, the change in the tax code will generate more income for the federal government. You may be thinking, “Great! We can reduce the national debt!”

I think that’s very unlikely. That may sound skeptical, and it probably is on some level, but both parties are spenders now. It doesn’t matter if it’s a Republican or a Democrat in the White House, they’re both going to print money to push forward their agenda.

Borrowing costs

I’ve talked about inflation a lot lately, and I promise I’ll tone down after I make this point, but I haven’t explained why runaway inflation is a bad thing.

Now don’t get me wrong, there are advantages (i.e. increased rates on savings accounts), but the disadvantage is higher prices. Households can run into trouble because they can’t afford necessities anymore.

The larger problem, however, is the cost of borrowing. Over the last, almost 15 years, rates have been low. And they’ve stayed low, other than an attempt to increase in 2018.

People and corporations borrowed a lot of money. Some bought things they didn’t need. Others to increase research, development, and innovation. Some people used record amounts of leverage to take part in the wild stock market (as of late).

With that said, the cost of borrowing will go up and the cost to service that debt will go up. The higher rates go, the more money that will be needed to pay for/down the debt. When that happens, less money will be spent on “productive” things.

That can slow growth and negatively impact the economy. That’s why central banks reduce rates in times of negative or low economic growth. It reduces borrowing costs and incentivizes people and companies to spend money instead of saving it.

Labor

The last thing I’ll say that has the ability to tie into the last point is the current labor shortage. There are more jobs available right now than people to take those jobs.

Small businesses, in particular, find it especially difficult to fill vacancies. Couple a labor shortage with a strong push from workers, unions, and government bodies to increase wages, and you get wage inflation.

When wage inflation becomes more prevalent, price inflation (CPI) becomes more likely. If companies have to pay their employees more, they need to account for that increased expenditure somehow. They turn to increase the prices of their products and/or services.

Demand is unlikely to suffer because of higher wages. People are making more money, so they should be able to afford higher prices, right?

Conclusion

If you read back some of my other posts, you’ll see I’m optimistic in select areas of the market, and I’ll stay optimistic in those areas no matter what type of economic pressures the country faces.

With all that I said, I believe there are enough economic pressures to cause a decline in the market and the economy, but there’s no telling when that’ll actually happen.

Disclaimer

Jacob Sensiba

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Gold

Crypto

Oil

Inflation

Commodities

Unintended consequences

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Working from home

Savings rate

Stimulus payments

Personal finance lessons

People saved more money

You don’t need to spend money to have fun

Diversification is important

Get rid of debt

Protect your loved ones

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Some items to consider:

Typical retirement costs

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Inflation right now

How is it impacting retirees?

Budgeting Strategies

Investment Strategies

High inflation here to stay?

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What kind of goals are there?

How to think through your goal-setting

How to invest based on your goals

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Plan Ahead

Have Money Saved

Prep Your Finances

Back-Up Plan

Make Money in the Meantime

Health Insurance

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Space

Medical equipment/Pharmaceuticals

Renewable energy/Nuclear fusion/Clean up carbon emissions/environment

Fintech

Robotics/AI

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Supply disruptions

Stimulus payments and excess savings

Labor shortages

Infrastructure

The Federal Reserve

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Taxing corporations and the wealthy

Government spending

Borrowing costs

Labor

Conclusion

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