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Dealing with Market Fluctuations

May 6, 2020 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Over the past couple of months, we’ve seen increased volatility. Put simply, volatility is periodic market fluctuations.

In a month, from the end of February to the end of March, we saw the S&P 500 drop nearly 35%. Obviously, it wasn’t a straight drop. There were several up days and a few relief rallies.

Since then, we have seen the S&P come back to the tune of 22%.

In this article, I want to give a little information about how I deal with market fluctuations, where I look for opportunities, and how retirement savers navigate these difficult times.

What I Learned

At the beginning of my career, I always dreaded experiencing a bear market. What do I do? Do I sell out of everything to avoid the decline? What do I tell my clients? How will they react?

As I gained more experience and read more, I learned what to do.

Keep in mind that I started my career in 2014, still in the middle of a long bull market, and since then I’ve read everything I could get my hands on about finances, markets, and economics. I’ve listened to podcasts and watched YouTube videos.

A lot of the people that I learned from attributed their success to when they got started. Two gentlemen really stick out.

One began his career in 1987 and lost his shirt on Black Monday (20% decline in one day, October 1987). This taught him about diversification and the importance of a long-term strategy.

The other got started in the early 80s but had a much different experience. He did some research and analysis and found a lot of risk in the credit market. He stuck his neck out on this trade and what he predicted came to fruition.

However, the markets didn’t react how he thought. What he learned was that fundamentals are important, yes, but what [almost] matters more is investor behavior.

Market Fluctuations

In periods of heightened market volatility, I pretty much hold my ground. I help my clients plan accordingly and coach them about what to do when stocks fall.

We put together the parachute before we jump out of the plane, not on the way down. That’s where people get into trouble. That’s why asset allocation is so important.

When building a portfolio, it’s vital to take your age (time horizon) and risk tolerance into account.

What may even be more important is the investor’s behavior. They might have a long time horizon and be fairly tolerant of risk, but if they’re going to lose sleep over a 10% correction, you need to position their portfolio accordingly.

Because my clients and I plan ahead, generally, I don’t do anything and I advise them to sit tight. What you don’t want to do is sell out of fear. At that point, you have probably experienced enough of the decline that it doesn’t make sense.

Exceptions

That said, I did some broad selling during the month of March. There were two positions that I used specifically to serve as a shock absorber during declines, and those did not perform as I’d hoped. So I sold them.

I realized they weren’t doing what I wanted them to and I cut my losses. Good traders and investors have an incredibly short leash when it comes to limiting their losses.

Opportunities

Generally speaking, I’m not a stock picker. I’m an asset allocator. Stock picking is not an efficient use of my time. However, sometimes it’s necessary and market fluctuations often create opportunities.

There are two positions, in particular, that I’ve been buying over the last month or two. I found enough of a disconnect between the price and what I thought the value would be over the long term, that I slowly invested into these two positions.

By the way, this slow investing is called averaging in, or dollar-cost averaging. Ideally, you invest at lower and lower prices, reducing your overall cost basis. My method is to take advantage of that disconnect I mentioned, but also leave enough on the side in case it goes lower so I can buy more.

How to Plan

Planning for market fluctuations isn’t something you do when you think it’s coming, it should be part of your plan all along.

Age is a big factor when determining the time horizon. The other items to consider, as I mentioned, are goals, risk tolerance, and investor behavior.

As an advisor, you have to be acutely aware and familiar with your clients, their risk appetite, and their personality. Only then are you able to plan with them, then guide them during trying times.

That’s probably one of the biggest things I’ve taken away from these market fluctuations. I’ve received two phone calls. That tells me that I’ve trained them well. That I’ve done a good job planning with them and that they are comfortable with how their portfolios are positioned.

Impeachment And The Stock Market

October 2, 2019 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

The talk of impeachment is flooding the headlines, so we’re going to explore it, how impeachment proceedings took place in the past, what happened to the market with each instance, and what you should do with your money/investments while these events transpire.

What’s the process?

The first step in any impeachment proceeding begins with a formal inquiry. This is done by the House of Representatives, and that’s where we are at this point in time.

During the inquiry, the evidence is gathered by the house to help make their case. Once they’ve gathered everything they needed, they take a vote.

If that vote passes, it goes to the Senate. They, like the House, review the evidence and take a vote. If the Senate’s vote doesn’t pass, then the President may be acquitted, and things end there.

What history tells us

There have been three impeachment inquiries, with only one actual impeachment.

The first was Andrew Johnson in 1868. The second was Richard Nixon in 1973. The third was Bill Clinton in 1998.

Which one was impeached? Bill Clinton. However, the Senate acquitted him and he was not removed from office.

When Andrew Johnson went through the impeachment process, the stock market (yes there was a stock market back then) really didn’t do anything, finishing that year up 1.5%.

During the impeachment proceedings with Nixon, the United States was in the middle of a recession. From the initial inquiry to the day he resigned from office, the S&P 500 fell about 30%.

With Clinton, however, the economy and the stock market were in the middle of an expansion. From beginning to end, the S&P 500 gained about 28% during his impeachment process.

What history tells us is that the period surrounding the impeachment will lead to greater volatility, but the long-term direction of the market is determined by fundamentals.

Be mindful of the headlines

The current impeachment inquiry with President Trump is dramatically different from the other three.

The internet makes updating the public instantaneous
Algorithmic trading can be programmed to execute orders when publications mention Trump, impeachment, etc.
We’re in the middle of a trade war with China, so uncertainty at home (U.S.) puts Trump in a weaker position to negotiate. What’s more, if impeachment looks more and more likely, Trump may be inclined to make a deal to help his case…even if it’s a bad one.

What should you do?

That depends. If you have 15+ years until you need to access your investments, I would tell you to do nothing. If you’re in retirement or it’s right around the corner, however, I would think about being a little more conservative.

When you grow more reliant on your retirement savings, your primary objective must move from capital appreciation to capital preservation.

I’ll link to several resources that should give you more guidance about retirement planning by age, investing in volatility, and more information about what’s been discussed here.

My Thoughts On The Market

July 10, 2019 by Jacob Sensiba

Let me start by saying that I have no clue what is going to happen in the stock market in the next 12 to 18 months, what I do know are several of the factors that have a say in what happens.

If you guessed that at least one of those factors has to do with President Trump, then you’re right.

Trade

The big elephant in the room. Honestly, I have no idea how this is going to pan out. Obviously, it behooves both parties to get this rectified as soon as possible, but it makes sense for China to hold out until the 2020 elections.

If they make a deal now, the US has more leverage at the moment and will probably be on the winning side of things.

If they wait until 2020, they have a chance of getting a Democratic president elected, and more than likely, they’ll reverse course on trade.

I think the odds increase that a Democratic president will win because if a trade deal isn’t reached, the market will negatively react and if the market tanks while Trump is president, he’ll be in trouble.

The US also decided to slap tariffs on European goods. This matters because if a deal is made with Europe, that gives the US that much more leverage. They won’t need China as much, and it’s clear that China needs us. We’ll see what happens.

Interest Rates

You may have caught wind of the most recent jobs report. We added over 200,000 jobs last month, which was much stronger than expected.

You’d think that kind of surprise would be good for the market, wouldn’t you? Unfortunately, the strong jobs report signaled a stronger economy than previously forecasted.

A stronger economy gives the FED less of a reason to cut rates this month. Where it stands now, I don’t know what they will do at the next meeting.

I was certain they would cut, but that was before the jobs number. I think it will benefit us down the road if they don’t. The reasons I think that have been explained before, but I’ll give you a synopsis real quick.

Typically, in the normal business cycle, rates will start [generally] low and consistently rise in tandem with economic expansion. Once the expansion peaks, the FED will cut rates to promote borrowing, which translates into spending.

Here’s the kicker. The prime rate (the rate the FED controls and the rate that affects all other rates) needs to be at a certain level when the FED cuts. If the prime rate isn’t high enough, then the FED won’t be able to cut enough to stimulate the economy.

What does this mean?

The current economic and political environment in the US is like nothing we’ve ever seen before. Our respective parties are at each other’s throats, which doesn’t make cooperation easy.

The unemployment rate is as low as it’s been in 50 years, inflation is crawling, rates are still ridiculously low, and the market is making new highs.

The FEDs impetus for raising or not raising rates is the level of inflation. It’s lower than their 2% target so they took their foot off the gas.

We are at the end of an expansion, which means a recession is most likely on its way, if not in the works already.

If you have less than 15 years until retirement and reallocate your accounts to be a little more conservative than usual. If you have over 15 years until retirement, I wouldn’t make any adjustments (allocate according to risk tolerance, time horizon, and goals).

Keep in mind that if you shift to more conservative and the market continues to rise, you’ll lose out on some gains, but if the market tanks, that conservative tilt should help minimize the damage.

What’s a Tariff and How Will it Affect Me?

July 18, 2018 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Tariff. It’s a word that you’ve probably hear a lot lately, but do you know what it means, how it’s applied, and how it’ll affect you?

What is a tariff?

In its most basic form, a tariff is a tax on goods imported from other countries

Why are they used?

There could be several reasons why a country would impose tariffs on certain goods and/or certain countries. Here are several of them:

Protecting employment – This is the one you are hearing about right now. President Trump wants to place tariffs on Chinese made goods. This will increase the cost of goods, which could make employers manufacture the goods themselves, which could warrant more hiring and more working Americans.
Protecting consumers – Countries levy tariffs for this reason if they feel a product coming from another country could danger domestic consumers. For example, if we import chicken and find out this chicken could be tainted or harmful, a tariff could be assessed to this, and force U.S. citizens to buy domestically.
Infant industries – If a country has an industry or sector that’s just getting started, a country could impose tariffs on similar products in order to limit competition and help that new industry grow.
National Security – More often than not, this has to do with defense. Most countries will manufacture and supply it’s defenses with their own products for obvious reasons.
Retaliation – Like what we’re seeing right now. Countries will impose tariffs in response to tariffs being imposed on them.

How do they affect U.S. consumers?

Tariffs affect consumers in a few ways. The first and biggest impact is that goods and services could cost more.

For example, President Trump put a tariff on steel and aluminum. You know what uses a lot of steel and aluminum? Vehicles. The makers of those vehicles will then pass the increased cost down to the consumer.

Personal cars, farming equipment, etc. will now cost more as a result of those tariffs.

The other effect it could have is employment. As mentioned before, if imported goods cost as much or more as domestic products (post-tariffs) it makes U.S. employers manufacture those goods in The States.

With the rapid increase in product creation, these employers will need to hire workers to create these products.

On the flip side, it could also negatively affect employment. With the increased cost of goods, companies could lay off workers in order to reduce the impact of that increase in expenses.

How do they affect the stock market?

We are already seeing an impact on the market. People hear that their costs will go up, or they hear the phrase “trade war,” and they start to worry. We’ve seen an increase in volatility this year, and a lot of that is due to these talks.

Here’s the thing, a healthy majority of investing is psychological. So any news that frightens investors will have an impact on the stock market. Scared people sell, and level-headed and/or institutional investors buy at lower prices, hence the dramatic up and down movements.

Companies that import a lot of goods will see an increase in cost, which could hurt their bottom line. Also, companies that export a lot of goods could see decreased demand due to the retaliatory tariffs put on by China and other countries. Again, bottom line.

A lot of investors look at that bottom line to make investment decisions. If they see a decrease in revenues, they could sell.

Additionally, the tariffs placed by other countries on U.S. products could have a negative impact on entire industries/sectors, which could hurt the companies in those industries and their stocks as a result.

Conclusion

No matter your opinion of President Trump, these tariffs are a net negative for the consumer. The increase in costs to consumers could be much greater than the increase in domestic employment, which is one of the goals with these tariffs.

Whatever happens with this mess, it’s important to know what the tariffs will impact and how consumers, industries, and the economy will be affected.

For more information on how to plan for these tariffs, and for our disclosure visit www.crgfinancialservices.com.

More Changes for Payday Loans?

July 30, 2014 by Average Joe 2 Comments

I’ve written previously about some of the changes to payday loan practices in the UK. Maybe this is a harbinger of things to come in the USA?

Here’s the latest:

Payday loan sector members agree: Charter governing good practice but government regulation continues to loom in 2014

Businesses within the payday loan sector have taken many steps towards self-regulation since 2012, yet as continued government intervention in the industry looms, the topic of self regulation continues to be hotly debated.

Let’s focus on the self regulation charter agreed to by much of the UK payday loan sector in 2012. This will help us examine the impact this has had on the payday lending industry after 2012, so we can debate the issue. Here’s the key question: has the government has gone too far in the regulation of the payday loan industry? Maybe even better: is government intervention necessary?

A cynical take on the self regulation stance taken by the payday lending sector since 2012

A cynic might argue that as with any voluntary assumption of a self regulatory framework, the measures were designed to stave off government intervention in the regulation of the industry. It is just as easy to take the opposing stance and argue that self regulation creates enough protection for customers, thus dispensing with the need for further government regulation. However, whatever your stance on the self regulation assumed by much of the payday loan sector in 2012, there is no disputing that the self regulatory framework adopted has improved standards within the payday loan sector as a whole and made the experience of obtaining a payday loan a fairer, more transparent and easier process.

Self regulation within the payday lending sector: a new consumer – focused Charter

In 2012 much of the payday loan sector in England took significant steps towards agreeing a self regulatory framework. At the center of the framework was a consumer – focused charter which made voluntary commitments to fairness, transparency and responsible lending.

Specifically the Charter established commitments towards fairness, reasonableness and responsible lending that are agreed to by all governed by the Charter. The Charter specifically outlines a commitment not to encourage irresponsible borrowing, and imposes an obligation on lenders to inform customers of the suitability of payday lending, only for short- term lending requirements.

Other rights created by the Charter include a right to have payment arrangements explicitly explained and a right to have the implications of the loan fully explained before the loan is entered into. The Charter also provides customers protections in the form of notifications relating to any payments taken, and a notice period of three days is nominated as the minimum notice period required.

Other areas governed by the Charter include the freezing of charges and interest in circumstances where a consumer has agreed a reasonable repayment plan, and a commitment to deal with issues of financial difficulties sympathetically.

Your views

What are your views of the regulation of the payday loan industry? Have you used Wonga – the current top competitor in the payday industry? Do you have thought on where this industry is headed with the new regulations coming in or do you have you any experience of loan sharks? Please comment or reply so you can share you opinion on these hotly debated issues. Payday lending has been a controversial matter for some time, but given the recent regulatory changes affecting the industry the debates surrounding the regulation of the industry have intensified. Let us know what you think, and don’t be afraid to tell us what your view is!

Self regulation of the payday lending industry: is it enough and is it effective?

Clearly government intervention within the regulation of the payday lending industry in the form of the Financial Conduct Authority oversight policy shows that the government believes the industry should not be allowed to self – regulate. Perhaps, central to the new proposals for regulation of the industry is the rise in the number of people using payday lending services. In 2008 the payday lending industry in the UK alone was worth 900 million, and this has sky – rocketed to an estimated 2.2 billion in 2012.

Some may argue that too much regulation of any service industry is a bad thing and results in unfair outcomes for consumers, whose access to a full range of services is typically limited by strict regulation. People who can’t access services legitimately inevitably go looking for the same service elsewhere. Enter the illegal money – lender, and the pressure to resort to their services.

On the other hand it can be argued that the industry will contribute to debt problems and create other long term social problems, if left unfettered. Despite the commitments made across the board in the payday lending sector, many commentators argue that the measures have not been effective in tackling spiralling debt within the UK as a whole.

Stock Market Punishment: The First Lesson of 2013

January 7, 2013 by Average Joe 38 Comments

The podcast team is giving the interns a well-deserved week off, so lucky reader….YOU get a FREE extra blog post from Average Joe. I know. Pinch yourself. It’s real. Almost like our awesome rare Saturday post this week.

Look at what the media did to you again.

The sky is falling! Fiscal cliff! Doom! Stock market will be in shambles! Hide your children!

Big ratings for the financial channels, huh?

If you listened and moved your money out of the market, it destroyed your chances for a great return in 2013.

MAYBE you’ll recover if you jumped out before the big two-day run up in stocks. The chances, though, are against you: historically, if you miss the 10 best days in the stock market, you lose about 5.18%, or nearly half your return for the year. If you paid trading fees to avoid the “fiscal cliff disaster,” this only exacerbated your problem.

Here’s what the panicked investor missed in the S&P 500 last week:

December 31: 1.7%

January 2: 2.5%

January 3: –.03%

January 4: .05%

In short, if you missed two days last week you lost out on 4.2%. Those types of returns don’t come around often.

By the way, don’t go in the comments and tell me that “all you lost was a little time….” go back and read the stats above first. You lost a ton.

let’s calculate the cost of listening to the media on this one

Suppose you’re 25 years old and you have managed to save $10,000 into your 401k plan. You lost out on $420. Sounds like no big deal, right?

Let’s use the rule of 72 to determine just how much you really lost:

The rule of 72 says that if you divide the interest rate you think you’ll achieve into 72, you’ll come up with the approximate number of years it’ll take your money to double. Cool, huh?

Assuming that you wanted this money for retirement (401k, right? That’s not your “mad money” account….I hope), we’ll use age 70 for your withdrawal. We’ll also use a realistic return assumption of 8%.

8% / 72 = 9 years for your money to double.

So, that $420 you lost wasn’t really $420, was it?

It would have doubled when you were 34, 43, 52, 61, 70.

Your “little” $420 wasn’t $420. By 32 it was $820. At 41 it was $1,640. By age 50 you’d lost $3,280. At 59 the gap was $6,560. When you went for the money at 69 you had $13,200 less.

it gets worse

If you’re 30 and gambled $50,000 that the market would tank, it’s uglier. Let’s also use 9% rather than 8%, since people looking long term historically have used 10% as their assumption (which I believe is too high, BTW).

Check out what more money and a “little” one percent difference do to your loss:

Rule of 72 = 8 years for money to double.

Funds double at 38, 46, 54, 62, 70

$2,100 lost during two day run-up in market.

= 4,200 loss at 38, 8,400 loss at 46, 16,800 at 54, 33,600 at 62 and

…$67,200 at age 70.

On our “What Did We Learn in 2012” podcast, expert after expert told you the same thing: don’t listen to national media finance porn and don’t chase short term results.

If you did, I’m going to play Dr. Phil now: How’s that workin’ out for ya?

Photo: Joe Shlabotnik

A Look Into the Post-Election Crystal Ball

November 8, 2012 by The Other Guy 17 Comments

The votes are in and I’d like to congratulate President Obama on his re-election.

This was a hard-fought campaign on both sides, and since we now know who will occupy the White House for the next four years and the Senate and House for the next two years, some of the uncertainty we’ve been experiencing in the stock market should finally begin to dissipate.

Many of you are wondering what the future holds for stocks and the market – and while no one knows for sure – including me, I do have a couple of themes that I think will emerge (or continue) over the next few years.

Theme #1 – Corporate Cash on balance sheets

There are trillions of dollars sitting on corporation’s balance sheets that were awaiting the outcome of the election. Many were anticipating a Romney election which would’ve brought with it likely corporate easing, but now these large multi-national companies have to do something else with the cash sitting overseas. If they repatriate it, they’ll be subject to double taxation, much like they are when they issue dividends, and at the highest corporate tax rate in the world. What I expect in the near term is an increase in company stock buy-backs, which have the immediate impact of lowering supply of that company’s corporate stock.

Immediate effect: Stocks with large cash positions might be worthy investment positions and short term winners.

Theme #2 – CNBC’s Fiscal Cliff

The producers at CNBC can’t help themselves. The phrase “Fiscal Cliff” sells heaps of advertising, so you’ll hear this over and over in the upcoming weeks. Since the House controls the country’s purse strings, and the President and the House have very different ideas on how to spend money, I expect continued gridlock up to and through the so-called “fiscal cliff.” Obviously, this will be resolved at some point, but it will provide uneasiness in the markets until it’s behind us.

Immediate effect: Lots of waves in the financial markets. Probably higher VIX (volatility) index.

Theme #2 ½ – Budgetary Issues Related to the Above

I don’t know if it will be a retaliatory-type reaction, or just purely out of ideology, but I expect the continued gridlock in Washington to impact all of the sun setting provisions that have been put in different tax-law extension bills over the last several years. For example, I think the severe defense cuts will take effect at the beginning of the year and the entitlement spending to continue.

Immediate effect: See Theme #2.

Theme #3 – Weak Dollar and Quantitative Easing

The U.S.’s credit has been downgraded twice already, and it appears headed for another downgrade as we reach our self-imposed borrowing limit of $16 trillion. Obviously, the Congress and the President will just kick that down the road a bit, but that means continued weakness of the dollar compared to other currencies worldwide. This is bad news if you’re travelling to Japan or Europe for vacation, because our weak dollar buys less Euros and Yen, but the large, multi-national companies we discussed earlier will benefit from a weak U.S. dollar since they make money in all currencies. Secondly, our fearless economic leader, Big Ben, has promised to continue to print vast amounts of dollars as long as the government continues to run deficits. Looks like Ben’s printing money for a long, long time…which could lead to inflation

Potential Headwinds

If there are any market headwinds, it will be the short-term issues relating to the pending fiscal cliff and their respective tax increases. Undoubtedly, the 3.8% tax on interest, dividends and capital gains that takes effect in 2013 will have an impact as well as the continued implementation of Obamacare. Since healthcare is mandatory for those employees who work over 30 hours per week, expect to see companies continue to reduce their workforce’s hours to 29,as the CEO of Darden Restaurants (Olive Garden, Red Lobster, etc.) has already announced.

So What Does That Mean for Me?

I think the best bet for many investors is to continue to chase yield. With bank accounts earning nearly 0% and no rate increase on the horizon, the fact that the S&P 500 averages 2.2% will provide some base level of market support over the coming years. As confidence comes back, the market should also bounce back accordingly. It’s sad, but President Obama is probably a “lame duck” president, at least over the next two years, as the House will continue to block all attempts he makes at advancing his agenda.

Ultimately, it’s more of the same. The uncertainty should be ending, the weak dollar means good things for the large multi-national companies. I know many were surprised by the outcome, but we are a country that comes together. Let’s focus on the future and not on the past.

Investors Beware: What the 3 Biggest Brokerages Really Do With Investor Money

October 28, 2012 by Average Joe 17 Comments

Today’s guest post comes from Susan Lyon, financial analyst with NerdWallet. Thanks, Susan!

What do E-trade, Schwab, and TD Ameritrade all have in common? Aside from being the three largest online brokerages and some of the biggest brand names in investing, they also all charge investors upwards of $7.99 or more on the typical stock trade.

Think this doesn’t sound so bad? Think again. A recent study by NerdWallet found that over 17 million investors are overpaying $1.8 billion every year on unnecessary (and sometimes very complicated or hidden) fees with the largest brokerages.

In light of the ongoing ETF price wars, you’d think a little of this competitive spirit would trickle down into the trading sphere – but this remains to be seen.

Where Is My Money Really Going?

Brokerages all make money by charging commission: that much is plain and simple. But how much is too much, and is the peace of mind that comes from trading with a brand name broker worth it, NerdWallet asks? The data says otherwise.

It’s easy to assume that a brand name brokerage is giving you top-notch treatment and the best money can buy, but NerdWallet’s study breaks down the top 3 brokerages’ financial statements to question this assumption. The key findings:

The big 3 online brokers spend a smaller percentage of their money on trade execution – what benefits the investor – compared to the little guys.
The big 3 spend far more on advertising and overhead expenses.

This data breaks down expenses at major brokerages by trade execution (what matters to the investor the most) versus advertising, employees, physical, legal and indirect costs:

Lesson learned: active traders can meet their needs just as well by bringing their business to a new firm. The average investor doesn’t need most of the “extras” offered by the big 3 anyways. Why pay for something you aren’t even using?

Investors Can Avoid Fees By Shopping Around

The typical investor with these companies makes between 1 and 2 trades per month, so while a one off expense might not seem like a lot, we did the math and it really adds up. If the typical investor makes only one stock trade per month, of approximately 100 shares, their annual fees at the largest 3 brokers come out to be:

E-trade $119.88
TD Ameritrade $119.88
Schwab $107.40

To make shopping around for better deals quicker and easier, NerdWallet’s new brokerage comparison tool allows investors to compare their many options side-by-side to find the right fit for them.

How Do I Decide on the Best Fit for Me?

NerdWallet’s new tool allows users to do their research before they invest, so they are made aware of all hidden and unpublished fees upfront to avoid unpleasant surprises later on. Investors can search among the 74 brokerage accounts in the search tool by price, research, or data tools – whichever matters most to them personally.

The takeaway: just like in all personal finance situations, make sure to explore all your options before transferring your money.

Photo credit: Joybot

The Markets Reach 4-Year Highs…Now What? Protect Your Investments!

August 23, 2012 by The Other Guy 26 Comments

OG grabs the reins for his usual Thursday rant!

This week, the US equity markets quietly reached a “four-year high,” prompting many (including me) to question the validity of this recent rally. The market is up nearly 26% over the past 12 months. During this same time we’ve had:

– the dreaded “downgrade” of the US debt,

– the Eurocrisis, Spain, Italy, Ireland, and of course Greek near-defaults

yet most people won’t feel much richer if you ask them “how’s the market doing?”.

As a practicing advisor, whenever I hear “lowest ever” or “best ever” or “all-time” anything, I automatically consider the inverse. As CNBC, Fox News, CNN and Bloomberg keep us glued to their networks with fear and greed, I’m left wondering…

So I’ve begun thinking about protection strategies.
Today, lets talk about about a powerful tool: the Put Option.

Wait! Don’t run away! It’s actually a good way to shelter your investments AND it isn’t nearly as difficult as you might imagine. While many option strategies are pure speculation, this one is designed for the conservative investor…the one who wants to insure everything.

Let’s say the S&P 500 closed at 1420. We can go out and buy an S&P 500 index fund that mimics the index, (ticker – SPY). If you look up SPY on any finance site you’ll see today’s closing price and you’ll notice it trades at 1/10^th of the actual index’s price. Since we assumed the S&P closed at 1420, the SPY would close at 142.

Now let’s further assume that you’re okay with day-to-day volatility of a few percent here and there, but you want to prevent the catastrophic loss of 20% or more over a few trading days – the so called “Black Swan” event. What we want to do then is to protect our current account against future loss, or said another way, we want “the ability (or option!) to sell at today’s prices sometime in the future.”

Wouldn’t it be nice to say “I want a do-over” if the market collapses and our funds slide?

The tool that accomplishes this is called a put option and it allows us to do exactly that. We have to pay for this option, so let’s explore what that would cost. It might not be worth the price.

If we pull up January 13 Put Options for $130, we’ll see that we can buy those for $3. January 13 Put Option means that we can sell the options for $130 anytime we want between now and the third Friday in January. This represents about a 9.5% decline from today’s prices and the $3 price per contract means that we’ll lose another 2% to cover the investment.

Here’s how I figure all this out

1) I determine the amount at risk. There are many risks, but in this case we’re talking about stock market risk. If your portfolio is $100,000 and you have 50% in stocks, your amount at risk is $50,000.

2) Next, I decide how much downside I’m comfortable accepting. As we discussed, a 10% decline is tolerable, but a 20% loss is catastrophic. I decide to insure everything below a 10% loss.

(side note – why don’t I just insure it for the current price? The cost to do this is nearly always huge. It’s like insuring your house….having a deductible of 10% is much cheaper than insuring every instance.)

3) Next, I’ll find prices. Using today’s numbers, it would cost me $3 per share to cover everything below a 10% loss.

4) Fourth, I do the math, which isn’t difficult. Don’t let it scare you. My amount at risk is $50,000 divided by $142 (todays SPY price) is 352 hypothetical shares of SPY. Although options are priced per share, they’re purchased per 100 shares. I need to buy four contracts to insure all my amount at risk.

4 (contracts) x $3 x 100 = $1,200 or roughly 2.4%.

5) Now I make my decision, weighing each outcome. Lets list them:

Outcome #1 – the market stays flat or increases through January 2013. If this happens, I’ll forfeit the entire $1,200 paid for the option contracts, but would’ve had the piece of mind. Basically, an automatic 2.4% loss for insurance that I didn’t use.

Outcome #2 – The market declines, but less than 10%. In this scenario, because of my “deductible” amount, I also lose the entire amount invested in the option contracts. Insurance that I didn’t use.

Outcome #3 – The market declines greater than 10%. In this scenario, my total loss is limited to just 10%. If the market goes down 20% over the next several months, I cash in my option contracts to recoup some of those losses at anytime I want through January 2013.

6) Finally, I decide whether to pull the trigger. If so, let’s try to find an “up” day to do the trade to lower your cost a little. If not, I have to be comfortable with my decision and move on.

So now it’s your turn. What outcome would you choose? Would you buy the insurance? What do you do when you start thinking about “protecting” some gains?

Photo: Stock Market Bull – thetaxhaven

A Shaky Earnings Season Might Be Your Wallet’s Best Friend

July 10, 2012 by Average Joe 11 Comments

There’s baseball season, football season, the holiday season and, of course, earnings season. While the first three may fill you with happiness and (in the holiday case) good cheer, earnings season fills new investors with confusion.

Why do I bring this up?

I woke yesterday morning to a nerve-wracking CNBC.com headline: Investors Brace for Shaky U.S. Earnings Season.

What is Earnings Season? Is It Contagious?

The good news: earnings season affects you directly, but not in the harmful way you may think.

Earnings season is the time (quarterly) when the majority of companies that move financial markets with their results declare how well they’ve performed recently. This news is for the prior quarter.

It’s important, when listening to reports about earnings, to listen for any future forecasting and to also determine what might have been the culprit behind a great or lousy prior quarter. If it’s increased sales on the same-old widget the company’s always sold, fantastic! If the company had a one-time mistake, things might still be looking up. If products just aren’t selling or management is quitting, it might spell bad news.

What Do I Need to Know?

Corporate earnings reports drive the stock market. Sure, financial markets respond to other pressures, but over time the stock market is simply a reflection of the economy. So, if you reread the headline above, Investors Brace for Shaky U.S. Earnings Season, what does that really mean?

Based on the information I told you above, it means this: companies didn’t have stellar profits last quarter.

That’s not nearly as shocking a headline, is it? In fact, I’ll bet you already knew that.

Move On, Nothing to See Here…..

Many investors read the CNBC headline above and think: I’ve gotta sell right now! If you’ve read my ramblings before, you’ll know that I think the opposite. I’m looking to buy when prices are low and sell when they’re high.

Here’s what I recommend instead of having a panic attack:

1) Rebalance your portfolio. Here’s how it works: if you’ve determined how much stock and bond exposure you want (among other asset classes), skim off the areas that have done well to fill in non-performing areas. Low markets are ideal times to rebalance because you’ll reaffirm your long term strategy, take gains from performing spots and redeploy in assets you already own that are low today. Smart move. Then, schedule another rebalance six months from now on your calendar.

2) Look for buying opportunities. If you’re interested in investing, shaky markets are a great place to place your first buys. Make your list of stocks to watch. Wait for earnings reports. Read what companies report, and make your move! Don’t make a common mistake and go whole-hog on a “can’t lose” investment. I’ve been involved with too many “can’t lose” things. I also told my dad I couldn’t lose my hair like he did. Glad I didn’t bet on that….

Not excited to make your own stock picks? Read our pieces on how to evaluate mutual funds and how Exchange-Traded Funds work.

3) If you’re nervous, put defensive measures in place. Use stop losses on individual stocks and exchange traded funds. Monitor fund results more frequently and establish a “worst case scenario” strategy. Remember this: never buy or sell everything on one day or at one time. It’s safer to march in slowly and march out slowly. An orderly walk toward the exit beats a panicked race to the door. Often, down markets rebound quickly.

CNBC, like other publications, is in the business of selling advertising. If the elevator is labeled “Up” or “Down” it’ll be a smooth and steady ride, but I’m sure CNBC knows that “Soar” and “Plummet” garner readers…and then advertiser dollars.