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What Currently Present a Risk to Markets?

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Where is the market going? What kind of risks do we need to be aware of? There are three or four things to pay attention to right now. The FED, interest rates, inflation, Covid, China, the government, and geopolitics. Do any of these present a risk to markets?

Okay, more than three or four things, but the first three can all be lumped together. Interest rate policy is enacted by the FED and what happens with interest rates has a direct impact on inflation. Furthermore, the government also has a chance to impact inflation.

And I apologize if we bounce around a little from topic to topic.

The FED, Interest Rates, Inflation

The government and the FED have a lot of control over what inflation is going to do. We had a lot of liquidity injected into the market because of the pandemic, and there’s a very good chance we’ll see more of that in the near future.

A $3.5 trillion bill is circulating through Congress right now. If this bill gets passed, we’ll have a lot more liquidity injected into the market. That’s likely to be a large tailwind for inflation (which is already running much hotter than expected). If the FED continues to provide an accommodative monetary policy, we’ll see inflation get out of control, and they’ll have to increase interest rates much sooner than they had planned.

Covid

Covid is still hanging around. 75% of the country has received at least one shot and now the administration is pushing booster shots. This is even after the CDC and the WHO have insisted on holding off on a third shot until less fortunate countries have a chance to get more of their first poke. The numbers need to level off soon or I fear lockdowns may rear their ugly head, and we all know how much the economy liked that the first time around.

China

China is a new story. Specifically, Evergrande. The ginormous real estate company is on the brink of bankruptcy. Comparisons have been made to the collapse of Lehman Brothers during the GFC (great financial crisis). We’ll see what happens and if the Chinese government decides to step in. Ripple effects through the global monetary system are possible.

Geopolitics

The last story is geopolitics. This has to do with the deal the US and Australia struck to help the Australian government build nuclear-capable submarines. It angered France because they already had a deal with Australia to help them build submarines (not nuclear-capable though). Britain feels pretty good because they helped broker the US/Aussie deal. Most likely, this will end up being only noise but could present a risk to markets. Something to keep your eye on.

Related reading:

What does an increase in yields look like?

The resurgence of Covid and what it means

Investment concerns and opportunities

Disclaimer:

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see the website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com

What Are The Major Downsides to Using a Roth IRA?

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downsides to using a Roth IRA

When people look at opening an individual retirement account (IRA), it isn’t uncommon to see recommendations directing them toward the Roth version. While Roth IRAs certainly have plenty of benefits, that doesn’t mean they are the best fit for everyone. After all, they are not drawback-free. If you’re considering a Roth IRA, here’s what you need to know about the downsides of using one.

Low Contribution Limit

For 2021, the IRA contribution limit is $6,000, though individuals age 50 and over can add another $1,000 to that. While that can feel like a substantial sum, it may not be enough to fully fund a retirement, depending on when you began.

Instead, many people with Roth IRAs may also need to set money aside elsewhere. If they are employed, a 401(k) or similar option through an employer could be a smart choice, particularly if they are offering a match.

For anyone who doesn’t have access to an employer-sponsored account, there are other options available. Self-employed individuals may be eligible for a solo 401(k), giving them a solid alternative. Using a traditional brokerage account could also work, though it doesn’t have the tax benefits that you get with formal retirement savings.

Income Limits

Unlike a traditional IRA, your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) has to fall within a certain limit to contribute to a Roth IRA. The limit that applies to a Roth IRA varies depending on the account holder’s tax filing status.

The contribution limit also has three phrases. If a person’s MAGI falls below a certain point, they can contribute the full amount allowable during the tax year.

MAGIs that sit above that initial cutoff but below a second one will see their maximum allowable contribution lower. If a person’s MAGI crosses an upper threshold, they are not allowed to contribute to a Roth IRA.

Here is an overview of the income phase-out ranges based on tax filing status:

Tax Filing StatusMAGIContribution Limit
Single / Head of HouseholdUnder $125,000Up to Annual Maximum
 $125,000 to $139,999Phasing Out
 $140,000+Ineligible
Married Filing JointlyUnder $198,000Up to Annual Maximum
 $198,000 to $207,999Phasing Out
 $208,000+Ineligible
Married Filing SeparatelyUnder $10,000Phasing Out
 $10,000+Ineligible

For individuals with pre-existing Roth IRAs who become ineligible to contribute in a subsequent year, they don’t lose access to that retirement account. Instead, they simply can’t add contributions while their income exceeds the limits. If their income declines in a subsequent year, they can begin contributing once again.

It’s also important to note that MAGI limits don’t apply if you’re rolling a traditional IRA into a Roth. However, you do have to follow all of the rollover rules, some of which are relatively complex.

Additionally, it’s crucial to understand that the limits are subject to change each year. Annually, the IRS reviews both the income and contribution limits to determine if adjustments are necessary. Often, when those occur, the numbers shift upward, not down. However, the changes do tend to be pretty small in the grand scheme of things.

Set Up Falls on You

With employer-sponsored retirement accounts, contributing is fairly simple. Your employer has made most of the difficult choices, takes care of your enrollment, and even makes sure that contributions come right out of your paycheck.

Unlike an employer-sponsored retirement account, you have to set up your own Roth IRA. Along with choosing the bank or broker that will hold your account, you’ll need to determine when you’ll contribute. The money won’t come straight out of your paycheck. Instead, you’ll have to schedule transfers to fund the Roth IRA.

In many cases, even a Roth IRA is reasonably automated once you get it set up. However, the initial legwork can be time-consuming, particularly if you have to spend a lot of time exploring banks and brokers to find the right option.

No Upfront Tax Deduction

When a Roth IRA, you contribute after-tax dollars. That means you don’t receive a tax deduction for setting money aside for retirement during the tax year the contributions are made. Instead, you can take distributions once you reach retirement age tax-free.

Essentially, it’s the opposite arrangement you find in a traditional IRA. With traditional IRAs, there is an upfront tax deduction. However, distributions are taxed.

Technically, not everyone views the Roth IRA as a drawback. However, it doesn’t mean that you have to spend more of your money on taxes now. As a result, you may have less in your budget to spend or save, which could be troublesome for some people.

Additionally, depending on your financial situation, getting the tax break later instead of upfront may not yield the biggest benefit. If your income is higher during your earning years than it will be during retirement, you could end up spending more in taxes over the course of your life by using a Roth IRA.

The Five-Year Rule

When you hit the minimum age for withdrawals with most retirement accounts, you don’t have to worry about any penalties. However, Roth IRAs are subject to the five-year rule. That means if your first contribution to your Roth IRA wasn’t at least five years ago when you being making retirement withdrawals at age 59 ½ or older, earnings you receive as distributions could be subject to taxes.

For many people who begin contributing to a Roth IRA well before retirement age, this isn’t usually an issue. However, if you didn’t open a Roth IRA until after you were 54 ½ years old or older, you’ll have to wait past age 59 ½ to make tax-free earnings withdrawals.

Whether that is a problem depends on your financial situation. Some people work beyond age 59 ½ or have other sources of funds, so they don’t necessarily need the Roth IRA income right away. As a result, waiting until they can make tax-free withdrawals isn’t automatically an issue. Instead, it just requires awareness and planning.

For others, the delay could be more problematic. As a result, anyone who is considering opening a new IRA later in life should determine if the five-year rule applies to them. If so, they should make sure that the impact isn’t an issue and, if it could be, potentially explore other retirement account options.

Can you think of any other downsides of using a Roth IRA? Do you think the benefits outweigh the drawbacks? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

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Technological Investment Opportunities

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Throughout history, some of the best companies are ones that created a product or service that solved a problem. I believe the vast majority of successful companies in the future are going to be technological or innovative in nature. In the coming years, there will be incredible technological investment opportunities. Here are some areas I think we should watch.

Space

When billionaires start spending billions of dollars, it’s hard to ignore. Especially, when all eyes seem to be on them when they’re making these gigantic moves. When it comes to colonizing Mars, space tourism, and all of that, it’s hard to see, at least right now, a company being able to profit on this segment. Eventually, we’ll be advanced enough that it’ll happen, but I don’t know how far away that is.

When it comes to sending satellites to orbit and payloads to the International Space Station (ISS), profitability seems more likely and much sooner.

Medical equipment/Pharmaceuticals

These are separate sectors, but I’m lumping them together for the sake of organization. I do this because they are both going after the same goal, making the human population healthier. They are doing this by helping cure diseases and making it more efficient and effective to maintain health.

There are plenty of diseases that need cures and a lot of self-sabotaging behaviors that humans need help with. It’d be silly to think that this area won’t be innovative and an incredible technological investment opportunity.

Renewable energy/Nuclear fusion/Clean up carbon emissions/environment

I’m not going to lie, with regard to the areas/sectors in this article, this section is my favorite. With all of the reports, publications, politicians, and scientists sounding the alarm bell about climate change, it’s impossible to ignore the technological investment opportunities coming down the pike.

Fintech

I’ll be perfectly honest, I’m not 100% sure what kind of advancements will come out in the financial technology space that hasn’t come out already. Perhaps what will end up happening is more efficient iterations of the processes, programs, and products we have right now.

Robotics/AI

Right after the renewable energy section of this post, in terms of my favorite, is this one because it has the ability to have an impact on everything.

Here’s the challenging part, at least challenging in terms of investability. There are going to be a lot of companies that invest in AI and machine learning. The biggest spenders and investors of AI technology are large technology companies that exist already.

Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and the like are already changing the game for AI. Finding a smaller company whose sole product/service is AI is going to be tough, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible.

There are a lot of cutting-edge, technological investment opportunities that will present themselves in the future. Make sure you’re paying attention and take advantage of those opportunities.

Related Reading:

Investment Concerns and Opportunities

Why Financial Literacy is Important

Inflation, Gold, Semiconductors

Disclaimer:

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see the website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com

Investment Concerns and Opportunities

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There are investment concerns and opportunities pretty much any way you turn. Healthcare looks great, but what about the costs associated with treatment? Technology is improving every day, but what’s going to happen with possible regulations? Is the FED going to pop our bubble?

Plenty can happen so let’s explore it together.

The FED

The FED doesn’t appear like it’ll stop its asset-buying program and accommodative monetary policy anytime soon, and it said just that in its most recent meeting.

That’s a good sign for the economy and for certain sectors. The industries that find the most favor are those that use heavy borrowing to facilitate growth efforts. These include construction, retail, information technology, transportation, and healthcare.

Commodity Prices

We continue to see a rise in commodity prices. Copper, oil, and lumber are all near record highs. I believe we’ll continue to see a steady increase in the price of copper. Copper is used in electronics, and with the further development of new technology, electric and autonomous vehicles, and green energy…the demand for the metal is just getting started.

Big Tech

Silicon Valley is bracing for possible regulatory troubles. There’s a new head of the FTC and she has her gloves on. Big tech has come under increased scrutiny in a few areas, including content, privacy, and antitrust. This causes investment concerns.

The federal government has a problem with social platforms and some of the content users post on their sites. There’s a thin line these companies walk because they can’t censor speech and they can’t promote speech. But some people post very harmful and hurtful things.

Also, antitrust cases are likely to come in full force because some of these companies are so gosh darn huge. They have so much pull, so much money, and too much market share (in a lot of cases).

What’s more, they no longer hide that they harness user data to make money. How much they sell to other parties and what they sell isn’t entirely known, but their privacy issues are also coming to head.

With all of that said, compliance costs are going to increase. What those companies look like and what they’re allowed to do will likely look different than what it is now. Only time will tell what happens to these companies.

Healthcare

I’m reading and hearing more and more excitement about the healthcare space and the investment opportunities that lie within. The speed at which the globe was able to produce three or four viable and useful vaccines for Covid is incredible. I heard today that it’s the first vaccine to be created in less than 5 years.

The global population is getting older by the day. Not only that, but the baby boomer generation is around retirement age, so they’re going to require more medical attention.

Prescriptions, medical devices, new and improved medical technologies are going to treat and possibly cure more and more illnesses.

Telemedicine looks to be a great investment opportunity. Last year, medical attention was quite high but 90% of that was done in person. Virtual visits, remote monitoring, and in-home testing will grow in popularity.

Investment concerns and opportunities abound, I’m excited for what’s to come in the tech and healthcare spaces.

Disclaimer:

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see the website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com

What’s The Federal Reserve Going To Do?

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There’s a lot going on in the world right now. Supply disruptions, stimulus payments, excess savings, labor shortages, and infrastructure are all playing a role in economic policy. In today’s post, I want to try and explain how they all play a factor with regard to how the FED determines policy.

Supply disruptions

Inherently, supply disruptions don’t have much to do with how the federal reserve coordinates monetary policy. The biggest supply disruption we have at the moment involves semiconductors.

The wide applicability of semiconductors makes them very important in product development and deployment. What’s more, the number of semiconductors needed just keeps growing.

The bad news is…there’s a supply shortage. That creates upward pressure on price. Not only for the semiconductors themselves but also for the products that use them.

Stimulus payments and excess savings

When Covid hit, the world shut down. People were out of work, so they didn’t spend money. People didn’t spend money, so businesses started losing revenue. In order to prevent total economic collapse, the government sent stimulus checks to qualifying individuals and boosted unemployment.

A lot of people saved this “extra” money and recently started to spend it. Jobs are starting to come back and the global economy is starting to look healthy. Confidence inspires spending. Increased consumer spending is good for the economy.

Labor shortages

Labor has become a big topic of conversation. Not only do we have more jobs available than we have people to take those jobs, but workers are quitting in large numbers. Both of those factors can have a large impact on wages.

Employers are having trouble filling roles. How can they attract applicants? Better wages and benefits? For those that can afford bigger payroll, that’s the avenue they’re using. That puts upward pressure on wages.

I also mentioned workers are quitting in droves. Employees are demanding to be fairly compensated and enough of them are banding together now. Improved benefits and increased wages are becoming more likely.

Wage inflation helps feed the price inflation narrative. The prices for products and services go up because of supply and demand factors. Wage inflation increases due to supply and demand dynamics.

These two inflationary pressures feed on each other. Wages go up so workers can afford more. Prices go up because workers can buy more, and so on.

Infrastructure

News broke about a new infrastructure bill (Source). On top of, already, record-breaking government spending, that’ll juice our GDP numbers for 2021.

I don’t have much else to say about this other than the spending involved will create inflationary pressures AND I’m proud there was bipartisan support for this bill. Not something we see very often anymore, so I’m happy it turned out this way.

The Federal Reserve

With all of that said, what’s the federal reserve going to do? If inflationary pressures are as hot as they seem, I fear the FED will have no option, but to end their accommodating stance on monetary policy.

They’ve already indicated that a rise in interest rates in Q3 or Q4 of 2023 is likely. They claim that they will let inflation run past their 2% target but by how much? At one point do they say enough is enough?

That’s a tough question to answer. I think in this situation, they’re talking bigger than what they’ll actually deliver. It’s all well and good if they say they’re going to let inflation run, but we’ll see what actually happens when that gets here.

Related reading:

Economic Pressures

Employment, Stimulus, Rising Prices

Disclaimer

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see the website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com

Employment, Stimulus, and Rising Prices

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The dynamic of employment changed dramatically because of the pandemic and the stimulus provided to consumers as a result.ww

People were let go from their jobs, especially jobs that didn’t have a way to “work from home”. Factory jobs and jobs in the service industry, for example.

Government Intervention

To combat a declining economy and unemployed workers struggling to make ends meet, the government decided to inject liquidity into the market. They did this through increased unemployment benefits and stimulus payments to those that qualified.

This aid sent to consumers helped out a lot of people, but it didn’t entirely go according to plan. One of the intentions of the stimulus payment was to incentivize people to spend – that’s why a large number of the second payment came via a Visa gift card.

When people spend, the economy does better.

Unfortunately, people saved their stimulus payments, but thankfully the market and the economy didn’t suffer as a result.

Rising Prices

That leads to the predicament we could soon find ourselves in. The economy is doing better. The majority of the United States population has been vaccinated (just a reminder that a majority is anything over 50%). Daily life is starting to return to normal; it’s happening slowly, but we are trending in the right direction.

As people grow more confident in their ability to go out into the world, and they get more confident in the economy and the market, they’re likely to spend some of that savings.

Low rates, decreasing unemployment, and more spending are three legs to likely inflation pressures.

Inflation

Now, I know I wrote about inflation pretty recently (here), but I feel it’s necessary to beat that drum again.

The FED already said that they will be more liberal when it comes to monetary policy. That means they will be more likely to let inflation run hot (relative to their 2% inflation target) for an extended period of time.

What they are doing with that stance, is they don’t want to kill a recovery when it’s just getting started. That’s what happened in 2018 when they raised rates throughout the year, but that increase in interest killed the economic growth and popped a bubble.

Okay, so the recipe for inflation is set, but what does that mean for me?

Honestly, that’s hard to say. We already said that inflation is likely, and in some cases, it’s already here. The question is, how much inflation is too much? This question will be answered by the FED.

And the answer will show itself when they relax their easy monetary policy. Interest rates could go up and the FED’s balance sheet could reduce in size.

At that point, I believe it’s only a matter of time (my hunch is not a lot of time) until the bubble we’ve created pops.

If you’re invested for the long haul, hunker down and hold steadfast. Avoid panic selling. If your time horizon is shorter, soon may be a good time to take some profits and de-risk your portfolio.

Disclaimer

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see the website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com