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Investment Risks in the World Today

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The world is crazy right now. The war with Russia and Ukraine has created investment risks and opportunities with commodities, specifically. Inflation is also an issue. What do you do with all of these moving parts in the global economy?

Gold

Gold has only gone up since the war began, up over $2,000 for the first time since 2020. The reason being is that gold is a store of value and is often seen as a safe asset during times of uncertainty, like war, inflation, or a pandemic.

Gold isn’t the only asset that’s used in times of uncertainty. Cash, bonds, and other precious metals have also seen a massive inflow lately.

Crypto

Cryptocurrencies have also seen a run-up in recent weeks, for two reasons. One, some people do see cryptocurrencies as a store of value like gold. And two, cryptocurrencies have played a role in this war. Because Russia has been cut off, financially, from the rest of the world, they’ve used crypto to finance operations. Ukraine has done the same, but for the reason of being able to raise money from different channels.

Oil

The price of oil has been on a roller coaster since the war began. Russia supplies a lot of energy to the world. It supplies the U.S. with just 3% of oil, but it supplies Europe with most of what they use. That said, the price of oil went up very fast to about $125/barrel because the US and other countries blocked them off to further disrupt their finances.

It’s come back down since then thanks to OPEC+. They pledged to increase production to make up for the loss in supply.

Inflation

Inflation is off the charts right now. The most recent reading came in at 7.9%. There are quite a few things that are seeing the effects of it. Food is getting more expensive. Gas, obviously, due to supply constraints and inflation is getting more expensive. Property is also getting more expensive. Interest rates are going up as well. My wife and I refinanced late last year and locked our rate in at 3%. The most recent reading came in at 4.5%.

The FED is going to make some moves as well. Because of the war with Russia and Ukraine, they will take a more measured and conservative approach, so it’s possible that inflation is a problem for longer because the FED won’t hike rates as quickly as they may have previously intended.

Commodities

There are some other commodities, besides gold and other precious metals, that are feeling a pinch due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. Wheat is the biggest example of this because between Russia and Ukraine, they produce and ship a third of the world’s wheat.

Unintended consequences

Even though the war is between two countries, it’s affecting everything (though differently than how it’s affecting Russia and Ukraine). There are logistical problems that are delaying shipments of things. The air space above the scuffle is off-limits, so flights around the area are taking longer than they previously would have. Longer flights = more fuel and reduced volume on flights = increased costs.

There are a lot of investment risks and opportunities due to the moving parts in the world right now and the market will continue to be volatile until things settle down. If you have time to ride out some ugly markets, stick to your plan. If you’re in retirement or close to retirement, reducing your risk might not be a bad idea.

Related reading:

How to Invest in Gold: 5 Ways to Get Started

How Inflation is Changing Our Lives and Not for the Better

Weekly Wrap: Crypto Aids Ukraine Putin Aids Inflation and Russian Investments Tank

Disclaimer:

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see the website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com

Inflation, Gold, Semiconductors

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There are a lot of moving parts in the economy right now. Inflation has become a concern, people are looking at gold more as a hedge, and there’s a shortage in semiconductors. In this piece, we’ll explore some of those dynamics and what some of the investment implications are.

Inflation

Inflation will most likely increase. Many projections estimate the FED will meet/beat their target of 2%.

I do believe that an increase in goods and services will not affect demand as it would have in the past. Stimulus payments to consumers created enough excess cash that people didn’t mind, or even notice, an increase in prices.

I do realize I’m painting with a broad brush here, and undoubtedly there will be some that will notice the difference. I’m simply stating that demand will not suffer from price creep as it used to, at least while the government continues writing checks.

Gold

We could see another uptrend in gold. There’s a certain recipe that makes the case for a bullish perspective on gold – inflation pressures, increased money supply, and low-interest rates.

The FED continues to supply the market with liquidity with its asset-buying program. An increase in the money supply dilutes the value of the dollar (USD). When the USD decreases in value, typically gold does well.

There is a caveat to that, however. Demand for US Treasury securities is weakening, specifically from foreign investors. To double down on that, foreign investors are net sellers of Treasuries. There have to be enough buyers to meet Treasury issuance, otherwise, the FED won’t have enough “reserves” to inject liquidity into the system.

With regard to low rates, that is a good sign for gold, but it’s also a good sign for equities (companies) with a high tendency to borrow. I’m mainly looking at the technology sector. Especially these unicorns that have high valuations, but low (or negative) profits.

Semiconductors

There’s also a current market disruption at play here…semiconductor shortage. Demand across many applications are at multi-year, sometimes multi-decade, highs. Personal computers, electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles, AI, and the like all use semiconductors.

A semiconductor shortage has many implications:

  • Decrease in production
  • Price increase
  • Nationalist mentality
  • R&D disruption

A decrease in production can hurt the bottom line. It all depends on when the shortage ends. If production reduces enough for a sustained period, adjustments will have to be made by corporations.

A price increase is likely because of supply and demand dynamics. The price of semiconductors will go up, so the price of the products they’re used in will also go up. This could hurt demand for those products and could hurt consumers.

There are a select few companies that supply the majority of the world’s semiconductors. This could have a similar effect as Covid had with regard to supply chain management. Companies relied on global trade and cooperation to sustain their supply chain operations. When countries shut down due to the pandemic, global trade suffered as a result. Countries might shift to manufacturing their own semiconductors instead of relying on supply from trading partners.

Semiconductors are only getting less expensive and more efficient. With a shortage, and possibly less money coming into the manufacturers, it’s possible that this dynamic of cheaper and better plateaus…at least temporarily. It’s also possible that the shortage improves operations and makes the manufacturers more agile. Some countries have a very unique ability to progress, strengthen, and adapt when a roadblock presents itself.

With that said, I believe semiconductors will be a great investment opportunity. Their demand is only going to increase because of the push to provide the world with electric vehicles and clean energy. I would, however, pay attention to the shortage and I might wait until that shortage ends and prices stabilize.

Related reading:

Does Economic Inflation Favor Borrowers or Lenders?

Is Gold a Good Investment?

What You Can Learn from Different Market Environments

 

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see the website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com

The FED, The Dollar, and Opportunities

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My post for today was supposed to be a personal reflection, but in lieu of that, I’m going to lay out my thoughts on the market and the economy. Which includes the FED, the dollar, and inflation. In addition to that, I want to explain where I see risks and opportunities right now.

The dollar

We can expect the Federal Reserve to continue an accommodative monetary policy. They will invest in the fixed income market and they’ll resume the low-interest-rate stance.

If they continue this response to the Covid crisis, the dollar should go down in value. There are some risks and opportunities that arise if that happens.

Gold and cryptocurrencies should increase in value. A devaluing in the dollar is, normally, the right landscape for “alternative currencies” to do well.

International securities, especially emerging markets, do well when the value is priced lower. A large majority of international transactions take place using the USD. The value of their home currency goes up in relation to the USD.

The technology sector also has a negative correlation to a falling dollar. When the dollar goes down, that sector tends to outperform.

If the dollar, indeed, goes down look at these areas for possible investment opportunities.

The FED

As I mentioned earlier, the FED will continue to create an accommodative environment for the economy…until they don’t.

At some point, the recovery will gain momentum. GDP will go up and the population will gain confidence in that recovery. At this juncture, inflation will pop onto people’s radars.

If inflation runs too hot, the FED could possibly stop, or reduce, QE. They could halt the bond-buying program and they could raise rates. If that happens, keep your eyes out for a pullback.

We saw this happen at the end of 2018. The FED started raising rates until they went too far, and we had a 20%-25% decline in Q4. Then they reversed course and began easing again. We had a run-up in the market until March of 2020 when Covid hit.

Long term

I believe tech and healthcare will be the two sectors to watch over the next decade or more. With technology getting more advanced every day, investment opportunities will present themselves in these two areas.

Green energy, especially with the incoming administration, is also an industry with big potential. Technology will play a large role in the advancement of renewable energy.

My biggest concern

And I’ll preface this by saying I’m concerned because I truly don’t know the implications of it. MMT looks as likely as ever at this point.

The favorable stance by the FED plus the democratic party holding the House, the Senate, and the Presidency leads me to believe printing money is going to pop off.

An aggressive agenda to provide relief for Americans struggling because of Covid, a push for expanded Medicare/Medicaid benefits, possible student debt relief, as well as other initiatives.

It appears that reducing the national debt is not a concern. To be fair, it wasn’t a concern for the Trump administration either.

The bill comes due for everyone, and if other countries (namely China) are no longer buying US Treasuries like they were, I do not know how we can fund policies, branches, or even service the existing debt. Only time will tell.

Conclusion

I will close by saying that these are my opinions. Granted, I do a lot of research to come to these conclusions, but what I said above are still my thoughts and not foregone conclusions. Do your own research.

Related reading:

How to Beat Inflation with Investment

What Makes Gold so Valuable

 

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see the website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com

What Makes Gold So Valuable?

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why is gold so valuable

At some point, every would-be or current investor hears that they should consider adding gold to their portfolio. Gold often has a substantial amount of allure, a psychological impact that affects how people perceive its value, stemming back to ancient times when it was highly coveted. It’s also viewed as a form of safe haven, an investment that remains stable even during tumultuous times. If you are wondering what makes gold so valuable, and if its value is deserved, here’s a look at it from an investment perspective.

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