investment types Archives - The Free Financial Advisor

Our New Low(er) Interest Rate Environment

September 25, 2019 by Jacob Sensiba

With the talk of interest rates and recession in the headlines, I figured it was a good time to check-in, and give a little update on interest rates and how lowering them can impact the economy, issuers, and investors.

Why is the FED cutting?

Basically, the FED is cutting to extend the current economic expansion we are in.

The fundamental reason behind that is lower interest rates encourage corporations and consumers to spend more.

For two reasons.

One, they get paid very little, in interest, to put their money in the bank. And two, they are able to borrow money at lower rates.

Current income needs

People who need income, retirees, for example, invest their money in income-producing securities. Often times, those securities are fixed income instruments, like bonds.

Bonds pay interest on a semi-annual basis. The higher the credit quality of the issuer (company or government entity) the lower the payout. The inverse is true for a low credit quality issuer.

It’s the ever-present adage in investing, more risk equals more potential for reward.

When interest rates continue to creep lower, then those people start to make different choices.

What people are doing now

People are getting paid less, in interest, to invest in high-quality debt issuers, so they’re getting riskier. Meaning, they are investing that money with low credit quality companies and/or government entities.

Their risk of not receiving interest payments and getting their principal (the initial investment) back goes up.

The FEDs tool kit

I’ve touched on this point a few times in the past, but I’m going to hammer it home.

The Federal Reserve, essentially, has two tools. Lowering interest rates and buying Treasuries. Lowering interest rates promotes spending and buying Treasuries provides liquidity.

Because they are lowering interest rates during an expansion (whether we are still in one or not is debatable, but let’s say we are for the sake of argument), they are, effectively, removing the number of tools they have available.

When the next recession comes, my fear is they won’t be able to do enough to help us out of it.

Corporate debt

Currently, the amount of corporate debt in the market is the largest in history. Additionally, the amount of debt that’s rated BBB is also the highest in history.

BBB is the last rung on the investment-grade scale. Investment grade is anything BBB and above.

That’s a problem for basically one reason. When a BBB rated issuer gets downgraded (to BB) they are classified as junk (high-yield). When that happens, they need to tighten up their debt and improve their balance sheet. This means less borrowing and less spending.

It’s a dynamic that feeds itself. The issuer is downgraded, they spend less, GDP gets weaker, more corporations follow suit, and here comes the recession.

Investors

Once the corporate (high-yield) debt pops, issuers of debt will have trouble meeting their obligations. They’ll start to default, and their investors will be left high and dry.

Conclusion

This post is not intended to scare people, it’s to inform.

One last point. Because interest rates have been so low for so long, there are economists/academics that think the lowering of interest rates won’t actually help.

What It Take To Be A Successful Investor

July 31, 2019 by Jacob Sensiba

What makes a successful investor? Is it your ability to beat the market or to beat your competition?

In my opinion, being a successful investor doesn’t have to do with out-earning your peers or leaving the S&P in the dust. No, my definition is very simple.

Develop an investment plan using a variety of factors, and be able to execute and follow that plan indefinitely.

Suitability

This is step 1. You need to figure out what your “suitability” is. Your suitability will lay a very good foundation upon which you build your investment plan. Suitability involves three things:

Risk tolerance – This is your ability to handle drawdowns in your portfolio. If you crumble with fear every time you lose 5 percent, then you’ll probably want a fairly conservative portfolio*. On the other hand, if you have no problem seeing your portfolio drop 50 percent, then you’re ready for a more aggressive allocation.
Time horizon – Probably the most important factor of the three. Your time horizon is basically when you’ll need the money. A long time horizon allows an investor to take on more risk because there’s more time for them to recover from drawdowns. The inverse is true for short time horizons. You’ll want to be conservative because you have little time to earn back what’d you lost.
- Long time horizon – 10+ years
- Medium time horizon – 2-5 years
- Short time horizon – Less than 2 years
Goals – What’s your plan? Is this savings going to be used as a down payment for a house? If so, there’s probably a minimum dollar amount you have in mind and you’ll want to tip the odds in your favor that you don’t go below that. Similarly, if this is for retirement and you have 30 years to invest, you have the green light for risk assets.

Keep in mind that all three of these things, plus one other, need to be used together when determining your asset allocation. If you are tolerant of risk, but need the money in 5 years, somewhere in the middle between aggressive and conservative is probably better. That one other thing is your behavior as an investor.

Investor behavior

The finance/investment world is coming around to this, but your psychology is a HUGE factor as an investor.

Obtaining a high return on assets is one of your goals, but it should not be the primary goal. When you create an investment plan you have to make sure it’s something you can actually stick with.

I wrote about it previously, here.

You could be tolerant to risk and you could have a long time horizon, but if you lay awake at night every time the market drops, then you need to rethink your approach.

That kind of fear and anxiety hinders your ability to follow your plan. What normally happens, is someone sets an unrealistic investment plan, one where they take on too much risk.

Thereafter, volatility picks up. They check their portfolio and it’s declined 15 percent. They wait a day and check the next.

Another 2 percent drop. Then the thought of 2008 creeps into their heads and the panic sell.

You can set up a great investment plan, but your behavior will ultimately make the decisions. Keep that in mind.

Asset allocation

Using your suitability and behavior, you can then determine your asset allocation. The types of assets you use in your allocation can vary. If you wanted to invest a small percentage of your portfolio in gold, for instance.

The three most common assets are stocks, bonds, and cash. With risks ranging from high risk to virtually (there’s always some risk) no risk.

Speaking very generally, people with long time horizons and are more tolerant of risk, have a more aggressive portfolio. The inverse is true for people with short time horizons and a low-risk tolerance.

That said, the ultimate goal is to develop a plan that meets your goals in the smoothest fashion possible.

Ignore the noise

Throughout your investment “career” you’ll run into people, friends, family, or even random people on the street that will tell you the sky is falling or that the newest IPO will go gang-busters and you need to get in now!

Put your blinders on. There are two things that hurt investors. Their own behavior and their ability, or lack thereof, to tune out what’s happening around them.

This is extremely difficult because we, as humans, have evolved to use our peers to compare or judge, our standing in society.

Stay in your lane and focus on your goals.

Never stop learning

Every single experience in your life is a learning opportunity, especially the bad one. I recommend journaling daily, recount your day, and dig little nuggets of knowledge from your experiences.

Additionally, take in some form of content every day that improves your understanding in your line of work, or in an industry that you’re interested in.

With regard to your finances, give our Toolkit page a look. There you’ll find a number of books and resources to enhance your financial know-how.

Please be advised: Everything written in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Opinions are my own and do not reflect the opinions of this publisher or my employer.

What is the Coverdell ESA?

May 29, 2019 by Jacob Sensiba

Introducing the last account type on our quest to find the best way to save for college, the Coverdell ESA.

Without further delay, here’s what you need to know about the Coverdell ESA.

What is it?

Like the 529, the Coverdell ESA is an education savings vehicle for K-12 and secondary education. Coverdell ESA stands for Coverdell Education Savings Account.

It got its name from Senator Paul Coverdell, who introduced the legislation for a similar account, the Education IRA. In 2002, a new piece of legislation was introduced to make the account what it is today.

The 529 and the Coverdell ESA share many of the same characteristics, but there are some things that set it apart. All of these will be listed below.

Advantages

Savings and investments in the account grow tax-deferred and are withdrawn tax-free when used for qualified education expenses.
When it comes time to withdraw, those funds are not considered income, as long as you are using them for qualified education expenses.
Can use in conjunction with other education tax credits, like the Lifetime Learning Credit, as long as there’s no double-dipping.
These accounts are self-directed, so your investment options are plentiful. They include…
- Age-based funds
- Static mutual funds
- ETFs
- Stocks
- Bonds
- Real estate

Disadvantages

Contribution limit of $2,000 per child per year.
The funds inside the account are taken into consideration when you file for financial aid. The assets are considered their parents assets.
If the money is not withdrawn from the account by the time the beneficiary is 30, they could be subject to taxes and penalties.
- After 30, the funds inside the account become fully taxable and you’re penalized 10%.
Like the 529, contributions to this account are not tax-deductible.

Unique Characteristics

Only eligible to families/individuals that fall below an income threshold ($110,000 for single taxpayers and $220,000 for couples who file jointly).
The contribution limit is $2,000 per child per year, so even if a family member opens an account for your child, you still can’t go over that number, or there will be a penalty.
Qualified expenses include…
- Tuition
- Books
- Supplies
- Equipment
- Tutoring
- Special needs services
And can also include…
- Room and board
- Uniforms
- Supplementary and transportation services
With a 529, the account owner has control over the assets. Conversely, with a Coverdell ESA, the beneficiary has control.

Conclusion

Effectively, there are three education savings vehicles used today. The UTMA/UGMA, Coverdell ESA, and the 529 plan. I’ve written about the other two in the past so go check those out.

On paper, the 529 looks like the best option, with a high contribution limit, a large number of qualified expenses, and there’s no penalty for letting funds sit for decades.

That is all true, and honestly, I prefer the 529, but the vast, vast majority of people that are helping their children save for college will not come close to the high contribution limit.

The only drawback to the Coverdell ESA is the penalty if the funds aren’t used before 30. Other than that, I don’t think the $2,000 contribution limit is a factor because most people can’t put that much away, anyway. Not without sacrificing their ability to save for retirement, as well.

That said, they’re both great options and you can’t go wrong with either one.

How to Invest for the Long Term

August 1, 2018 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Investing is an important part of your financial life. What’s more important is investing for the long-term.

With a long time horizon, you have the ability to ignore short-term market volatility and you have the ability to let your investments compound over time.

Investing this way can be difficult, however, so here are some tips on how to do that.

Pick a strategy and stick with it

You need to pick and stick with what works for you. There are several strategies that you could choose.

Value – A strategy that involves a deep dive into company/industry fundamentals. Companies/industries in this area may or may not be out of favor. All you care about is how the underlying fundamentals look.

Growth – High flyers. Companies with high P/E ratios. Companies that have a strong case for continued growth. Sectors like technology and consumer discretionary are considered growth.

Contrarian – If you buy when others sell or sell when others buy, you may be a contrarian investor. You go against the herd. Someone who does this has a unique ability to be extremely objective.

Momentum – You invest in companies or sectors that are performing well and are fairly likely to continue that trend going forward.

Start early

This is no secret, the earlier you start the better. Albert Einstein once said, “Compounding is the eighth wonder of the world.” It really is amazing what compounding can do. If you have 20, 30, or 40 years to invest, you should be sitting pretty at that finish line.

For example, say you have two investors. One investor starts contributing $1,000 per month to an account and invests in a stock market index ETF, starting out at 25 and stops contributing after 10 years.

Another investor starts contributing $1,000 and that same index ETF, starting at 35 and they contribute until they turn 65. At age 65 person A ends up with 1.49 million, and person B ends up with 1.26 million.

Compounding truly works wonders. Start early and give compounding a chance to work its magic.

Make every move with the future in mind

Every decision that you make needs to be a slow and thoughtful one. It’s particularly important to make decisions with your future self in mind. Delayed gratification is HUGE when investing for the long term.

For example, you have your debts paid off and now have a little extra money each month. You decide that you want to buy a boat. You save up and pay $20,000 for a nice, new boat.

Here’s the flip side. Say it took you three years to save up for that boat. Instead of saving, you deposited $5,500 per year into a Roth IRA (max contribution amount). This is invested in a stock market index ETF we mentioned earlier.

Now, let’s go out 10 years. You still have that boat and have taken good care of it. However, it’s lost over 50% of value over that time period. Conversely, that $16,500 that you invested has grown to $33,600.

Buying the boat may have felt good before, but investing that for the long-term is by far the better financial decision.

Invest in what you know

Peter Lynch famously said, “Invest in what you know and know why you own it.” This is such an important principle within investing. If you are competent in the consumer staples sector, stay in the consumer staples sector.

At times you may see technology stocks return far more than your sector, but you could have easily invested in a technology company that went bust. You don’t know the industry so how would you know what’s good and what isn’t.

By sticking with an industry that you are knowledgeable about, you increase your chances of success.

Contribute regularly

Contributing at regular intervals does two things.

One, you’re saving and investing more, which increases the size of your nest egg.

Two, when the market ebbs and flows, you will continue to invest the same amount each month/year. You’ll buy more when it’s low and buy less when it’s high.

This is called dollar cost averaging. It effectively reduces your cost basis for your entire position, which effectively increases your gain, if your investment is up when you sell it.

Diversify

One of the most effective ways to reduce how much your portfolio reacts to dramatic shifts in the market is to diversify. Hold some stocks, some bonds, some cash, some gold, and some real estate. There are other investment products you could own, but these are usually the big ones.

Be objective

Try to take your emotions completely out of it.

When the market starts to sell off, you need to objectively look at your positions. Look at the characteristics of the business. Has anything changed? Or is it just declining due to a broader market selloff?

If it’s the latter, take some of that cash you have and buy that baby at a discount.

Use stocks

Over the long-term, stocks are the best investment to a) outpace inflation and b) effectively appreciate the money that you’ve saved.

Utilize various products

There are a variety of vehicles out there for your investments. Take advantage of as many as you can.

401(k) is an employer-sponsored retirement plan. Money saved in it can lower your taxable income and investments grow tax-deferred.

Traditional IRA – Individual retirement account. You open it up and save in it. Tax-deductible contributions. Investments grow tax-deferred.

Roth IRA – Similar to a Traditional IRA, except money contributed is not tax deductible, but money withdrawn is tax-free (money withdrawn from 401k and IRA is taxed).

These are just a few of the vehicles that can be used to save for retirement.

Next week I will dive deeper into the various products available.

Say no to penny stocks

These are stocks that cost less than $5 per share. More often than not, these are very risky and the companies themselves have a much higher probability of going out of business than other companies with higher stock prices.

Don’t invest via “hot tips”

Your friend says, “A stock I invested in last week is already up 100%, you need to get in on this before it goes any higher.”

When you hear this, just let it filter out of your brain. Odds are, the dramatic increase in price is pure behavior related, and no stock can sustain that kind of growth. That stock will come crumbling down at some point.

Think of the tech bubble from the 2000s. There were companies with literally no information about them, and they were going from $10/share to $200/share within a matter of weeks.

Just 48% of companies from the dot-com bubble survived past 2004. (Source)

Conclusion

Investing for the long-term is your greatest chance for financial success. Starting early, contributing regularly, and ignoring the noise are only a few great tips discussed here, but they are probably the most important.

If you would like to hear more about long-term investing and/or for our disclosures visit www.crgfinancialservices.com.

Rates of return are hypothetical, are provided for illustrative purposes only, and do not reflect the performance of an actual investment. All investments involve the risk of potential investment losses and no strategy can assure a profit. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification seeks to reduce the volatility of a portfolio by investing in a variety of asset classes. Neither asset allocation nor diversification guarantee against market loss or greater or more consistent returns.

If reading this blog post makes you want to try your hand at blogging, we have good news for you; you can do exactly that on Saving Advice. Just click here to get started.

The Pros and Cons of Index Fund Investing

February 6, 2017 by Emilie Burke Leave a Comment

What Are Index Funds?

If you are tired of trying to beat the stock market, index investing may be the best solution for you. Index funds work by investing your money into an index of stocks. (You may have heard of S&P 500 or the Dow.) When you put money into an index fund, you are investing in all of the companies that make up that particular index’s portfolio. This is an alternative to choosing and investing in particular stocks. The same risks exist for you as those who buy stocks individually. However, since the market typically increases over time, index funds can be a safer way of investing one’s money.

Pros:

They are inexpensive.

There are usually no hidden fees or sales commissions with index funds. They have low annual fees- much more insignificant than the large fees that hedge funds and other alternatives charge. You can also increase your investments regularly without facing additional charges. Avoid indexes that do charge investors extra.

They Allow You to Invest in A Diverse Selection of Stocks.

A well-balanced portfolio is key, and index funds aim to achieve this. As an individual, our investment opportunities are far more limited. By teaming up in an index fund we are able to share in the investments of many different stock companies. This is a much more attainable goal when we are part of an index fund; costs are significantly lower.

They’re Efficient.

Index funds financially outperform the majority of mutual funds. Although solo investors enjoy trying to “beat” the stock market and outsmart the institution, research has showed time after time that index fund earnings are much more consistent. On top of bringing in more earnings, they are also user-friendly and easy. You can link your bank account to the index fund and it will automatically withdraw on a regular basis for you. No work on your part at all! Not only do you avoid having to study the stock market, but you also do not have to move the money over regularly.

It’s A No-Brainer.

For anyone who is a newbie when it comes to investing, index funds are a life-saver. You don’t have to pick individual stocks or worry about the market rising and falling. All you have to do is provide the money, and the market will grow over time.

Cons:

They Can be Vague.

The assets making up a fund’s portfolio are constantly changing. It can be difficult to see exactly what you own and exactly how much you have made by investing. This is due to fluctuating value in

Limited Upside.

Although investing in individual stocks can be messy and dangerous, some investors have a special eye for it. The professionals can often beat the market and get ahead of the game. In an index fund, you will never beat the market, because you will only grow consistently alongside of it.

You’re Not in Charge.

If you like to be in control, it could be difficult to learn to trust your money with strangers. Your index fund managers will be the ones in charge of what the fund gains in assets. You will likely never be personally able to call the shots in an index fund, and that is something you will have to come to terms with.

Not Suitable For All Investors

The risk return relationship suggests that higher return investments usually involve higher risk. Index funds are typically designed to capture the median performance of markets such as the S&P 500 or the Russell 2000. As a result they usually return market performance – no more and no less. If you want a very risky investing strategy, say for example, investing in reverse convertible bonds, you likely won’t find index funds a suitable investment vehicle.

There Can be Fees.

Some index funds do charge high fees and commissions. Be sure to stay clear of these.

Financial Planning Basics: The Financial Pyramid

November 28, 2016 by Emilie Burke 1 Comment

The first time I heard about the financial pyramid, I was instantly intrigued. I had never thought about it in this concept before, but I unintentionally had been practicing this in my own life. In finances you have to build the base before you can reach the top or it will all fall apart, hence the allegory of a pyramid.

The base of your financial pyramid should be a solid financial plan. This includes your written budget, short-term and long term goals, and how you will make your income as well as an investment plan to be implemented in the future. You should have a positive cash flow, meaning, no longer using debt to fund your lifestyle.

Once you have implemented the base, you can move onto the first building block: protection. You must protect yourself from the unimaginable, so I recommend everyone have a will and power of attorney, insurances such as life, health, auto, homeowner’s/renter’s, and disability, and a basic emergency fund of at least $1,000-$2,500. I was thankful to have my mini-emergency fund when I had some car issues, because I was able to pay cash to repair them instead of having to go into debt. The overall pyramid looks something like this:

The second building block is low risk wealth accumulation. This would include saving for a home, retirement, and children’s college education, in addition to reducing consumer debt. Financial guru Dave Ramsey teaches that you should get completely rid of any debt before beginning savings, although, in my opinion, you should still invest in retirement while reducing debt only if your employer offers a match. I myself am in the debt reduction stage but still contribute to my retirement account since my employer offers up to a 4% match into my 401(k). Additionally in this step, you should create your emergency savings fund. Many people believe an emergency fund of 3-6 months’ worth of expenses is adequate.

The third building block is high risk wealth accumulation. This includes investing. Expanding on the second block, in this stage you will max out your retirement accounts and then build a non-registered investment portfolio. Once you have built your net worth to an amount sufficient to fund your lifestyle and retirement, you can move to the next stage of investing– speculation (also known as speculative investing.) In this stage, you invest money into investments such as start-up companies. Because this is very risky, you will want to have little to no debt by this stage and invest only a small portion of your total investments into speculation. Also in this stage, you’ll want to begin tax planning, especially as your retirement investments increase.

The final building block is wealth distribution. You’ll begin gifting or spending the money you have earned, as well as plan your estate for future generations or charity upon your death. Since your net worth has increased quite a bit since you first started the financial planning pyramid, you will want to update your will and trust.

Finally, Once you’ve got these basics nailed down you may want to think about hiring some help. One approach a lot of millennials use is robo-advisors. Pretty much a robo-advisor is a machine which uses various theories about portfolio allocation to make investing decisions. If you’re interested in a critical review of this, consider checking out www.roboadvisorpros.com, they have a good article on the topic.

If you aren’t into trusting your cash to a computer, consider signing up with Personal Captial. They’ve pretty much become an industry leader among the newer financial planning firms. If youre’ going to use them, please use this link or click on the banner below. It will help keep the lights on here at the Free Financial Advisor.

For help getting your financial pyramid in order check out these great articles.

10 Best Financial Planning Blogs
Best Free Financial Advice
Become a Financial Expert Step-by-Step

5 Benefits of Investing in Real Estate Through Private Lending

May 8, 2015 by Average Joe 11 Comments

Real estate investing is a key ingredient for creating a long-term investment plan that will maximize your wealth and can even lessen your risk. But it seems like there are limited options available to you, considering most investors don’t have the necessary time or experience to do it successfully. You can:

Purchase your home. Although this is considered more consumption than investment, this is still an investment in real estate with potential appreciation.

Purchase rental property. Most people have heard about the ups and downs of owning rental properties, but collecting monthly rent from tenants is great way to generate income. The downside is the need to manage the property yourself or hire a property manager to directly handle tenant and property issues.

Purchase REITs. Similar to purchasing stocks, a real estate investment trust is a corporation that raises money by trading on major exchanges, and it pays investors 90 percent of its taxable profits via dividends.

Buying real estate doesn’t necessarily mean dropping a ton of cash into the ground.

Besides these options, there’s another that the majority of real estate investors are unaware of: investing in real estate through private lending. As a private lender, you essentially become the bank. You lend your money to other investors (borrowers) and charge an appropriate interest rate for the use of your money. Here are some of the benefits of real estate private lending:

1) Monthly cash flow: The borrower pays you interest every month, which is typically between 8 and 15 percent.

2) Security: Your investment is secured by a lien on a tangible piece of real estate. That gives you collateral when lending your money, aside from just the soundness of the borrower. Typically, you shouldn’t loan more than 75 percent of the property’s current market value, giving you some cushion in the event that the property’s value decreases.

3) Diversification: Real estate private lending gives you the ability to diversify your portfolio — and not only from a real estate perspective. If you want to create current income, it’s another fixed-income option.

4) Lower volatility: You can better manage the market risk if you keep your real estate loans short term.

5) Passive investment: Instead of learning the nuances of real estate development, construction, management, etc., you can lend to other experienced real estate investors who do all the work. You just act as the bank and receive interest payments, and your money is returned at the end of the investment.

Being a real estate private lender is a great way to get exposure to real estate without doing all the work. But you still have to understand some of the risks involved. The market value can cause properties to quickly increase or decrease in value due to local and national factors.

Borrower credit can also be volatile; you need to make sure the borrower is in stable financial condition and can pay back the loan. Also, verify that the borrower’s investment strategy is solid.

Finally, make sure you have good legal representation to draft loan documents, coordinate the transaction, ensure your loan is properly recorded, and see that agreements are in place to protect you as the lender.

Real estate private lending is a great way to get exposure to real estate and generate passive income for your investment portfolio. As with any investment, you need to understand the risks involved and do your homework before jumping in headfirst. But if done right, real estate private lending can generate some of the best risk-adjusted returns in the marketplace.

Jeff Carter is the managing director and founder of Grand Coast Capital Group, where he oversees all aspects of the business. Grand Coast Capital Group is a national private lending firm based in Boston that provides creative short-term financing to real estate investors, builders, and developers across the country.

Stock Market 101: Basics of Investing

August 13, 2013 by Stan Poores 6 Comments

Sometimes I hear people tell me that the stock market is like magic. That’s not the case at all.

Making money in the stock market does not have to be an impossible or difficult feat. Perhaps the biggest obstacle when it comes to investing is making sure time is on your side. Time is maybe the most important factor in investing for two reasons:

– there is longer for your money to compound

– you can make mistakes and learn the basics through trial and error

By reading some of the tips below on how to succeed in the stock market, you should be well on your way to starting an investment portfolio in stocks.

History proves that with time on your side, you can count on the history of the market to know that your investments will pay off. It is a well-known fact that in the long term, stocks have historically outperformed all other types of investments. Over long periods of time, that stock market has averaged around 10 percent.

What About Over Shorter Time Frames?

Quite to the contrary, stock performance over the short term is a much riskier. There are countless examples in history where stocks have plummeted in a single day. When it comes to stocks, timing the market or day-trading is a skill that takes a lot of time and knowledge, and still is a dangerous pursuit. All in all, stock investments should only be relied on as long term investments unless you want to risk your savings. If so, I’d still recommend a day at the casino over the stock market. You’ll probably lose all of your money there, too, but you’ll certainly have more fun!

Risk/Reward

It’s true that as you increase your risk, you have a greater chance for a nice reward at the end of the rainbow. This is certainly the case when it comes to stocks. To take more risk, focus on sectors that historically have seen more volatility, such as real estate. If you’re hoping to lower your risk while investing, do your due diligence and never invest in something that you have not researched completely. Most investors have problems when they “take a flyer” or “trust their gut.” These are horrible ways to invest.

How To Pick Long Term Winners

Nothing is a better predictor of stock price appreciation over the long term than earnings. Companies with solid earnings sometimes can outspend their profits, but usually if you focus on earnings, you’re headed toward winning companies. When it comes to valuing a stock or determining how risky it is, looking at the historical data on earnings to discover risky or potentially successful the investment will be to you. The company earns little money but shows a profit? That company is downsizing and showing profits through cutting. You can’t do that forever. One huge quarter for earnings? You should ask yourself how the company can duplicate that feat in the future. You can learn a ton from earnings.

While earnings is a great place to start as you’re getting your feet wet, it’s definitely not the only indicator. Remember the whole “Time on your side so you can learn” speech above? This is meant to point you in the right direction. People spend years perfecting their knowledge of more advanced concepts such as price to book and price to earnings ratios.

Stocks Vs. Bonds

When comparing a bad day for a stock to a bad day for a bond, the differences are significant. Bonds tend to bounce back from a bad day much more quickly than a stock would. Historical data shows that a small dip in a stock’s price versus a bond’s price can mean entirely different long term results. A bond may bounce back quickly while a stock may take more than five years to recover. While bonds will rebound (or the company will go bankrupt), you never know with a stock.

Another good indicator for both the performance of stocks and bonds comes with a look at what interest rates are doing. When interest rates go up, bond prices fall. On the other hand, when interest rates fall, bond prices go up. Similar trends occur with stocks. Knowing these patterns can help you determine when a good time to buy or sell would be. While it is never a good idea to time the market without significant experience in investing, it is wise to know what the economy is doing. In general, the success of your investments will follow the success of the economy.

How To Increase Your Yield Through Microloans

February 28, 2013 by TheOtherGuy 23 Comments

Sometimes it takes a little creativity to reach your destination.

The world economy continues to slowly gain traction but many cash investors aren’t seeing that translate to increased yield in their short and mid-term cash investments. According to Bankrate.com, the average yield for a $10,000 money market investment was a paltry 0.52%. That’s a whopping $52 per year, excluding any fees or costs, and definitely excluding inflation. Last year, the Social Security Administration increased retiree benefits by 1.7% to offset increasing costs. Based on that inflation adjustment, investors are losing purchasing power each and every year by doing what at first glance appears to be the right thing: investing in a reliable money market account.

Imagine an investment that guarantees you’re going to lose money – that’s what a traditional cash reserve is doing today. That’s why so many bloggers lately question the need for an emergency fund at all. Don’t fall into that trap.

Microloans: A Primer

Microloans are very small loans made to borrowers who typically lack collateral to support the loan. Sometimes, microloans are also made to those who don’t have steady employment or even verifiable credit. There are two well-known microloan organizations – serving a completely different market. The most well known peer-to-peer lender is Prosper.com. They have over 1.6 million customers and have funded over $400 million in loans to their members. Prosper.com helps connect borrowers who have reasonable credit with lenders who are trying to earn a higher return on their money. The other micro-lending site is Kiva. They primarily help people and families across the world to “create opportunity and alleviate poverty.” Between the two, Kiva seems altruistic, whereas Prosper seems more capitalistic.

How To Earn Money

While both Kiva and Prosper offer the opportunity to lend money to whomever you wish (and for whatever purpose you wish), Prosper created a system to help those who want to use Prosper as an investing tool. On their website, they breakdown all the financial metrics for the different types of loan ratings. Prosper also provides advice on how to create a “diversified” portfolio of microloans. (Diversification is important when investing in loans – some are going to default!)

Returns on these investments are beyond enticing – Prosper’s best members, those they rate AA – have an average credit score of 808 (well above the national average). Those AA loans have a historical loss rate of 1.70% – but have an average return of 5.50%! That’s leaps and bounds above our Money Market rate listed above. The lowest rated Prosper members (credit score 683) have a 14% loss rate and a 13.29% average return. A well-diversified portfolio of Prosper loans could make an attractive portfolio.

It’s Not All Roses

This may seem like a great “fire-and-forget mission” and in some ways it is, but there are some things you’ll need to recognize before you invest in microloans at a place like Prosper. First, the loans are three years long, and there’s no way to get your money back early if you truly need it. Secondly, you will experience some defaults. As I mentioned above, even the highest rated consumers still default. You need to realize you’re becoming the bank! Prosper recognizes that their traditional model doesn’t suit everyone, so they have created their Prosper Trade Notes program, but even that comes with it’s own long list of pros and cons.

Sum It Up

If you have some extra cash reserves – money that you know you aren’t going to use for at least three years – Prosper.com could be a viable solution to increase your yield. If you want to loan money for a more altruistic purpose, consider Kiva. Both of them serve a specific purpose, but Prosper has a greater chance to provide a consistent income stream for the investor.

Photo: Philip Taylor PT

Investing Myths: Four Traps That Catch Amateurs

December 13, 2012 by TheOtherGuy 24 Comments

Why do so many do-it-yourself investors perform far worse than they should? How do you make sure and avoid some of the potholes that most amateurs seem to step in?

In theory, people managing their own funds should do well. Today’s investor has access to more tools, more research, and more information than ever before. You can easily view data in near-real time, putting the average person on par with professional brokers and large brokerage businesses on Wall Street. It’s easy to track company performance, get up-to-date and late breaking information just by opening an app on your phone. What a world!

But, with all this information available, you’ll need to filter out truisms, half-truths and outdated ideas. Managing your own money isn’t tough, but it’s easy to fall into traps.

Let’ s walk through some top myths today’s investors need to realize aren’t true anymore.

First, a diamond may mean forever, but buy and hold isn’t. You shouldn’t just buy a stock and close your eyes. Occasionally, good companies have badly performing stocks. Instead of “buy and hold” investors should “buy and pay attention.” You should carefully select your positions based on the information at hand, but be sure to have a well-thought out exit plan before you buy the stock.

Second, performance isn’t the only thing that matters….and I’m not just saying that because I’m a guy. Historical performance is worth noting, but it’s not, as they say, indicative of future performance. We do believe, however, that performance does persist – there is investment momentum. What matters more than past performance? Simply put, volatility, tax considerations and overall asset allocation should be equally considered. It’s paramount to create a portfolio that compliments your long-term investing goals. Remember that the ones that shoot up fast are also the ones that crash quickly. Volatility is a two way street.

Listen to ways your investments could be more successful on our podcast: 2 Guys & Your Money Episode 15: Top 5 Ways to Improve Your Investment Returns

Third, charts don’t only make sense for professionals. Some people believe only “technical traders” use charts or that they’re somehow outdated relics from a bygone era. Not true. Charts can tell investors a great deal about what’s going on in the markets and with any particular holding. Charts aren’t crystal balls – but they can help you manage risk. How much volatility has a position had in the past? How does today’s price compare with past prices? When does the position pay dividends? How has this position grown relative to its peers? All of these are easily answered by reviewing a few charts.

Finally, don’t try to always buy at the bottom. This one’s really dangerous. How do you know it’s the bottom? Investors are egotistical beasts; we think that because it looks like the stock/bond/real estate/whatever is going to turn around, our few dollars are boing to be perfectly placed. We’ve seen investors buy stocks at $10 that once were $100, only to find out that they were not even close to the bottom. Remember two things: 1) you’re nobody in the market, and your brain is too small to call the bottom of the market (sorry if that offends you); and 2) investment prices fall for a reason. If a position is “on sale,” it’s important to know why it’s fell before you make a bet that it will rise again from the ashes. The person who buys a stock that’s near its yearly low is betting their purchase is going to be the reason it turns around. Unless you’re Warren Buffet, I wouldn’t be too sure.

The biggest rule when it comes to investing is not to try to ”win big” but rather “lose small.” Manage and know your risk before establishing a position and you’ll go a long way toward becoming a more successful investor.