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What’s The Federal Reserve Going To Do?

June 23, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

There’s a lot going on in the world right now. Supply disruptions, stimulus payments, excess savings, labor shortages, and infrastructure are all playing a role in economic policy. In today’s post, I want to try and explain how they all play a factor with regard to how the FED determines policy.

Supply disruptions

Inherently, supply disruptions don’t have much to do with how the federal reserve coordinates monetary policy. The biggest supply disruption we have at the moment involves semiconductors.

The wide applicability of semiconductors makes them very important in product development and deployment. What’s more, the number of semiconductors needed just keeps growing.

The bad news is…there’s a supply shortage. That creates upward pressure on price. Not only for the semiconductors themselves but also for the products that use them.

Stimulus payments and excess savings

When Covid hit, the world shut down. People were out of work, so they didn’t spend money. People didn’t spend money, so businesses started losing revenue. In order to prevent total economic collapse, the government sent stimulus checks to qualifying individuals and boosted unemployment.

A lot of people saved this “extra” money and recently started to spend it. Jobs are starting to come back and the global economy is starting to look healthy. Confidence inspires spending. Increased consumer spending is good for the economy.

Labor shortages

Labor has become a big topic of conversation. Not only do we have more jobs available than we have people to take those jobs, but workers are quitting in large numbers. Both of those factors can have a large impact on wages.

Employers are having trouble filling roles. How can they attract applicants? Better wages and benefits? For those that can afford bigger payroll, that’s the avenue they’re using. That puts upward pressure on wages.

I also mentioned workers are quitting in droves. Employees are demanding to be fairly compensated and enough of them are banding together now. Improved benefits and increased wages are becoming more likely.

Wage inflation helps feed the price inflation narrative. The prices for products and services go up because of supply and demand factors. Wage inflation increases due to supply and demand dynamics.

These two inflationary pressures feed on each other. Wages go up so workers can afford more. Prices go up because workers can buy more, and so on.

Infrastructure

News broke about a new infrastructure bill (Source). On top of, already, record-breaking government spending, that’ll juice our GDP numbers for 2021.

I don’t have much else to say about this other than the spending involved will create inflationary pressures AND I’m proud there was bipartisan support for this bill. Not something we see very often anymore, so I’m happy it turned out this way.

The Federal Reserve

With all of that said, what’s the federal reserve going to do? If inflationary pressures are as hot as they seem, I fear the FED will have no option, but to end their accommodating stance on monetary policy.

They’ve already indicated that a rise in interest rates in Q3 or Q4 of 2023 is likely. They claim that they will let inflation run past their 2% target but by how much? At one point do they say enough is enough?

That’s a tough question to answer. I think in this situation, they’re talking bigger than what they’ll actually deliver. It’s all well and good if they say they’re going to let inflation run, but we’ll see what actually happens when that gets here.

Disclaimer

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see the website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com

Jacob Sensiba

Jacob Sensible is a financial advisor with decades of experience in the financial planning industry. His journey into finance began out of necessity, stepping up to support his grandfather during a health crisis. This period not only grounded him in the essentials of stock analysis, investment strategies, and the critical roles of insurance and trusts in asset preservation but also instilled a comprehensive understanding of financial markets and wealth management. Jacob can be reached at: jake.sensiba@mygfpartner.com.

mygfpartner.com/jacob-sensiba-wisconsin-financial-advisor/

Economic Pressures

June 9, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

There’s a lot of movement in the economy. Several different news threads and innovations have the ability to change the direction and velocity in which our economy moves. In today’s newsletter, we’re going to talk about some of those economic pressures, what they entail, and what they mean for our economy.

Taxing corporations and the wealthy

A news story recently came out about taxes. More specifically, this news shed light on how the wealthy manipulate the tax code in their favor.

I think the information shared in this story was well known already, or assumed rather, but served as a confirmation. A large number of wealthy individuals aren’t “paying their fair share” in taxes.

This will only add fuel to the fire. The fire I’m talking about is the tax overhaul in the tax code. The Biden administration has said that they want to increase taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals/families.

If they’re successful, it would mean more tax revenue for the federal government, which is a good thing. Is there a chance that the increase in taxes creates a disincentive for those corporations and wealthy individuals?

Perhaps, but I don’t think it’s very likely, broadly speaking. I have only one reason…those corporations and individuals are good at making money, and I believe that will continue.

Government spending

As I said, the change in the tax code will generate more income for the federal government. You may be thinking, “Great! We can reduce the national debt!”

I think that’s very unlikely. That may sound skeptical, and it probably is on some level, but both parties are spenders now. It doesn’t matter if it’s a Republican or a Democrat in the White House, they’re both going to print money to push forward their agenda.

Borrowing costs

I’ve talked about inflation a lot lately, and I promise I’ll tone down after I make this point, but I haven’t explained why runaway inflation is a bad thing.

Now don’t get me wrong, there are advantages (i.e. increased rates on savings accounts), but the disadvantage is higher prices. Households can run into trouble because they can’t afford necessities anymore.

The larger problem, however, is the cost of borrowing. Over the last, almost 15 years, rates have been low. And they’ve stayed low, other than an attempt to increase in 2018.

People and corporations borrowed a lot of money. Some bought things they didn’t need. Others to increase research, development, and innovation. Some people used record amounts of leverage to take part in the wild stock market (as of late).

With that said, the cost of borrowing will go up and the cost to service that debt will go up. The higher rates go, the more money that will be needed to pay for/down the debt. When that happens, less money will be spent on “productive” things.

That can slow growth and negatively impact the economy. That’s why central banks reduce rates in times of negative or low economic growth. It reduces borrowing costs and incentivizes people and companies to spend money instead of saving it.

Labor

The last thing I’ll say that has the ability to tie into the last point is the current labor shortage. There are more jobs available right now than people to take those jobs.

Small businesses, in particular, find it especially difficult to fill vacancies. Couple a labor shortage with a strong push from workers, unions, and government bodies to increase wages, and you get wage inflation.

When wage inflation becomes more prevalent, price inflation (CPI) becomes more likely. If companies have to pay their employees more, they need to account for that increased expenditure somehow. They turn to increase the prices of their products and/or services.

Demand is unlikely to suffer because of higher wages. People are making more money, so they should be able to afford higher prices, right?

Conclusion

If you read back some of my other posts, you’ll see I’m optimistic in select areas of the market, and I’ll stay optimistic in those areas no matter what type of economic pressures the country faces.

With all that I said, I believe there are enough economic pressures to cause a decline in the market and the economy, but there’s no telling when that’ll actually happen.

Disclaimer

Jacob Sensiba

mygfpartner.com/jacob-sensiba-wisconsin-financial-advisor/

Employment, Stimulus, and Rising Prices

May 26, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

The dynamic of employment changed dramatically because of the pandemic and the stimulus provided to consumers as a result.ww

People were let go from their jobs, especially jobs that didn’t have a way to “work from home”. Factory jobs and jobs in the service industry, for example.

Government Intervention

To combat a declining economy and unemployed workers struggling to make ends meet, the government decided to inject liquidity into the market. They did this through increased unemployment benefits and stimulus payments to those that qualified.

This aid sent to consumers helped out a lot of people, but it didn’t entirely go according to plan. One of the intentions of the stimulus payment was to incentivize people to spend – that’s why a large number of the second payment came via a Visa gift card.

When people spend, the economy does better.

Unfortunately, people saved their stimulus payments, but thankfully the market and the economy didn’t suffer as a result.

Rising Prices

That leads to the predicament we could soon find ourselves in. The economy is doing better. The majority of the United States population has been vaccinated (just a reminder that a majority is anything over 50%). Daily life is starting to return to normal; it’s happening slowly, but we are trending in the right direction.

As people grow more confident in their ability to go out into the world, and they get more confident in the economy and the market, they’re likely to spend some of that savings.

Low rates, decreasing unemployment, and more spending are three legs to likely inflation pressures.

Inflation

Now, I know I wrote about inflation pretty recently (here), but I feel it’s necessary to beat that drum again.

The FED already said that they will be more liberal when it comes to monetary policy. That means they will be more likely to let inflation run hot (relative to their 2% inflation target) for an extended period of time.

What they are doing with that stance, is they don’t want to kill a recovery when it’s just getting started. That’s what happened in 2018 when they raised rates throughout the year, but that increase in interest killed the economic growth and popped a bubble.

Okay, so the recipe for inflation is set, but what does that mean for me?

Honestly, that’s hard to say. We already said that inflation is likely, and in some cases, it’s already here. The question is, how much inflation is too much? This question will be answered by the FED.

And the answer will show itself when they relax their easy monetary policy. Interest rates could go up and the FED’s balance sheet could reduce in size.

At that point, I believe it’s only a matter of time (my hunch is not a lot of time) until the bubble we’ve created pops.

If you’re invested for the long haul, hunker down and hold steadfast. Avoid panic selling. If your time horizon is shorter, soon may be a good time to take some profits and de-risk your portfolio.

Disclaimer

Jacob Sensiba

mygfpartner.com/jacob-sensiba-wisconsin-financial-advisor/

What’s Up With Oil?

May 12, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Oil is in the news a lot right now because of what’s currently happening on the East Coast of the United States. There was a hack of an oil pipeline, and the hackers have since been identified, but the consequences of that hack are being felt by the company and by consumers.

Due to the hack, the pipeline shut down. This pipeline provides the East Coast with nearly half of its gasoline and jet fuel. As a result, gas, and oil prices have gone up, there are gasoline shortages, and consumers are behaving erratically. Some are hoarding gasoline. Others are chasing down supply trucks and are behaving in a way, akin to when an animal’s food supply is threatened.

With all that said, I do want to talk about oil today. Not just the recent news about the hack, but also the price of oil, the supply and demand dynamics, and what my thoughts on the future of the precious fossil fuel are.

Oil Price, Supply and Demand

The price of oil is back to pre-pandemic levels. Back in the early days of the pandemic, however, there was a tremendous shock to the system. Oil prices dove into negative territory because demand projections dropped.

Everyone started staying home due to Covid and mandatory quarantines, so demand dried up. A lot of analysts said that pre-Covid was peak oil demand. More people are going to work remotely, which means less commuting and less consumption. More businesses are going to conduct meetings via Zoom instead of flying to different locations, which also means less consumption.

Do I think the “pre-Covid era” was peak oil demand? I think so, but it’s difficult to say with certainty.

The future of oil

I do believe, however, that the overall demand for oil will trend down going forward. With that said, oil producers are focused on their bottom line. If they see demand trending down, they’ll be inclined to reduce production to protect the price per barrel from plummeting.

There’s another force at play here – clean energy. We will continue to see start-ups and agile new companies bring new technology to market. I think the runway for clean energy, in terms of growth and return potential, is very large. However, don’t count out the big energy companies quite yet.

These companies (Exxon, BP, Chevron, and the like) have been investing a lot of money in green/clean energy. They see the forces at play and they see the direction in which the market is going. It’s in their best interest to plan for an energy market dominated by renewables.

How should we invest?

That’s a good question and due to regulatory constraints, I can’t tell you specifically. Do I think there’s a place for oil in your portfolio? Maybe in the short-term, but not for long.

Investing in energy will be more nuanced than it has in the past. Big oil companies, as I mentioned, are investing in clean energy, but I believe renewable startups and green energy companies will attract the majority of investment.

Keep up to date with what’s happening in the energy market and do your due diligence when it comes to selecting investments.

Inflation, Gold, Semiconductors

April 28, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

There are a lot of moving parts in the economy right now. Inflation has become a concern, people are looking at gold more as a hedge, and there’s a shortage in semiconductors. In this piece, we’ll explore some of those dynamics and what some of the investment implications are.

Inflation

Inflation will most likely increase. Many projections estimate the FED will meet/beat their target of 2%.

I do believe that an increase in goods and services will not affect demand as it would have in the past. Stimulus payments to consumers created enough excess cash that people didn’t mind, or even notice, an increase in prices.

I do realize I’m painting with a broad brush here, and undoubtedly there will be some that will notice the difference. I’m simply stating that demand will not suffer from price creep as it used to, at least while the government continues writing checks.

Gold

We could see another uptrend in gold. There’s a certain recipe that makes the case for a bullish perspective on gold – inflation pressures, increased money supply, and low-interest rates.

The FED continues to supply the market with liquidity with its asset-buying program. An increase in the money supply dilutes the value of the dollar (USD). When the USD decreases in value, typically gold does well.

There is a caveat to that, however. Demand for US Treasury securities is weakening, specifically from foreign investors. To double down on that, foreign investors are net sellers of Treasuries. There have to be enough buyers to meet Treasury issuance, otherwise, the FED won’t have enough “reserves” to inject liquidity into the system.

With regard to low rates, that is a good sign for gold, but it’s also a good sign for equities (companies) with a high tendency to borrow. I’m mainly looking at the technology sector. Especially these unicorns that have high valuations, but low (or negative) profits.

Semiconductors

There’s also a current market disruption at play here…semiconductor shortage. Demand across many applications are at multi-year, sometimes multi-decade, highs. Personal computers, electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles, AI, and the like all use semiconductors.

A semiconductor shortage has many implications:

Decrease in production
Price increase
Nationalist mentality
R&D disruption

A decrease in production can hurt the bottom line. It all depends on when the shortage ends. If production reduces enough for a sustained period, adjustments will have to be made by corporations.

A price increase is likely because of supply and demand dynamics. The price of semiconductors will go up, so the price of the products they’re used in will also go up. This could hurt demand for those products and could hurt consumers.

There are a select few companies that supply the majority of the world’s semiconductors. This could have a similar effect as Covid had with regard to supply chain management. Companies relied on global trade and cooperation to sustain their supply chain operations. When countries shut down due to the pandemic, global trade suffered as a result. Countries might shift to manufacturing their own semiconductors instead of relying on supply from trading partners.

Semiconductors are only getting less expensive and more efficient. With a shortage, and possibly less money coming into the manufacturers, it’s possible that this dynamic of cheaper and better plateaus…at least temporarily. It’s also possible that the shortage improves operations and makes the manufacturers more agile. Some countries have a very unique ability to progress, strengthen, and adapt when a roadblock presents itself.

With that said, I believe semiconductors will be a great investment opportunity. Their demand is only going to increase because of the push to provide the world with electric vehicles and clean energy. I would, however, pay attention to the shortage and I might wait until that shortage ends and prices stabilize.

Prioritizing Home Renovations

March 10, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

As I’ve said previously, K and I are moving back to our home in Oconomowoc, WI. We’re head over heels excited about it, but there are some things we need to do and some things that we want to do. Today, I’m going to talk about some of the projects we have planned and help you prioritize your home renovations.

What we need to do

There are two/three things that we need to do once we move back.

The first thing is to sure up the foundation. Our house is old, really old. The foundation is not as secure as we need it to be, so that’ll be the first thing we do. Get some extra support posts installed in the basement and secure/replace some of the old joists that have seen better days.

The second thing we have to do is insulate the kitchen. I don’t know what the prior owners did (they remodeled the home and flipped it to us), but the kitchen bleeds AC/heat. In the winter, it’s very clear because it’s darn cold in the kitchen. What’s more, the kitchen sink and the dishwasher will stop working if it gets too cold. To ensure the pipes won’t freeze and burst, and make the kitchen more energy-efficient and comfortable, we have to insulate.

The third thing is not incredibly important but should get done at some point. Off of the kitchen is the back door entrance. You enter into a “three-seasons room” and then enter a second door to get into the kitchen. The three seasons room needs insulation as well. Beneath it, we need to lay a vapor barrier on the ground and spray insulation into the floor joists. Now, this is not very important because of the second door. However, more insulation will allow for more utilization of that room.

What we want to do

This list is pretty long, as is the case for most homeowners. Some of the windows need to be replaced, we want to install an island in the kitchen, and we want to remodel the downstairs bathroom.

With regard to the bathroom, the current setup is one full bath and one-half bath. They are right next to each other, but the half bath (in terms of square footage) is much bigger than the full bath. What we would like to do is demo the wall in between and make it one, big bathroom. The price tag for this is a little higher than the other projects, so it’s a little farther down on the list.

How to prioritize

The first three renovations are no-brainers. These need to get done. Securing the foundation is paramount for our family’s safety, the insulation is important to avoid possible water damage and lower heating costs, and taking care of the back porch/three-season room will expand the usable square footage.

You have to take into account a few things:

Family safety
Family comfort
Financial sense
ROI – Return on Investment

Safety is your number one priority. That’s what makes a home, being comfortable living there. Replacing windows can be expensive, but they will pay for themself over time with savings in utility costs. In terms of the bathroom, it should increase the value of the home, but how much we spend versus how much the value increases is a factor to consider.

Conclusion

Projects and renovations go hand in hand with home ownership. What’s important is prioritizing home renovations so you take care of what’s needed before you tackle what you want.

Crypto, Reddit, Stock Market Thoughts

February 10, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

The last couple of weeks have been crazy in the stock market. With Reddit putting a short squeeze on Wall Street, crypto assets going gangbusters, and speculation about what inflation will do in the near future, there’s a lot to talk about.

Reddit vs Wall Street

Gamestop and AMC Entertainment are the two biggest names when we talk about Reddit investors.

A large number of shorts were put in by hedge funds and other big players on Wall Street. A specific Reddit account “recruited” its following to pile into the two companies named above. This group of “retail” investors drove the stock price up (as well as other investors that caught wind of their efforts).

Those hedge funds were forced to cover their shorts so they didn’t lose more money. The stock price for those two companies plummeted in the following days, but that doesn’t negate what Reddit did – they beat the big guys.

What’s a short?

A short is a type of trade. What you do is you borrow shares of a stock at a specific price in hopes that the stock price will drop. If it does, you buy back those shares at a lower price and collect the difference.

For example, if you bought shares of XYZ company at $20 and the share price of XYZ drops to $10, you would cover your short and earn $10 per share as a return.

It’s not for the faint of heart because stock prices effectively have no ceiling, so you could lose A LOT of money.

Crypto

Cryptocurrencies gained traction over the last few years as investors saw potential. After Bitcoin rose to $20,000 per BTC and crashed, it lost its allure.

Social media brought it back, thanks to Elon Musk. Slight changes in his Twitter bio moved the needle very effectively. Bitcoin is now hovering at $50,000 per BTC. Tesla invested a healthy sum in Bitcoin and will now accept payments in Bitcoin.

I believe other companies will adopt this policy and we will see Bitcoin used for purchases more regularly. There is a place for cryptocurrencies in this world, but it’s uncertain what kind of role it will play.

Short-term Thoughts

I go through quite a bit of research each week to get an idea of what the market environment looks like, what the economy is doing, and where there are risks and opportunities in the market.

With that said, the amount of times I’ve read the word “bubble” is alarming. The comparisons to the Dot Com Bubble and the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) are also a cause for concern.

Pundits are using the word “euphoria” more often.

There are a few things to pay attention to:

The divergence between the stock market and the economy. Typically, near the end of the business cycle, a difference between how the market is doing and how the economy is doing grows. Eventually, things will revert to the mean. That’s to say, the difference between the two will shrink.
Inflation. The Biden Administration is taking a different stance from past presidents. Inflation and overstimulation of the economy were areas of concern. President Biden is taking the other side of this argument, saying that he’d rather do too much, than not enough. Look for increased stimulus and less regard for inflation. If inflation starts to run hot, expect the FED to cool it down somehow.

Conclusion

Short-term policy changes and speculative movements in the stock market have little to no impact on the long-term performance of your portfolio. The one thing that really moves the needle is your behavior and how you respond to the news.

If you keep your long-term perspective in mind and keep your emotions in check, you should fare better than those that don’t.

The FED, The Dollar, and Opportunities

January 13, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

My post for today was supposed to be a personal reflection, but in lieu of that, I’m going to lay out my thoughts on the market and the economy. Which includes the FED, the dollar, and inflation. In addition to that, I want to explain where I see risks and opportunities right now.

The dollar

We can expect the Federal Reserve to continue an accommodative monetary policy. They will invest in the fixed income market and they’ll resume the low-interest-rate stance.

If they continue this response to the Covid crisis, the dollar should go down in value. There are some risks and opportunities that arise if that happens.

Gold and cryptocurrencies should increase in value. A devaluing in the dollar is, normally, the right landscape for “alternative currencies” to do well.

International securities, especially emerging markets, do well when the value is priced lower. A large majority of international transactions take place using the USD. The value of their home currency goes up in relation to the USD.

The technology sector also has a negative correlation to a falling dollar. When the dollar goes down, that sector tends to outperform.

If the dollar, indeed, goes down look at these areas for possible investment opportunities.

The FED

As I mentioned earlier, the FED will continue to create an accommodative environment for the economy…until they don’t.

At some point, the recovery will gain momentum. GDP will go up and the population will gain confidence in that recovery. At this juncture, inflation will pop onto people’s radars.

If inflation runs too hot, the FED could possibly stop, or reduce, QE. They could halt the bond-buying program and they could raise rates. If that happens, keep your eyes out for a pullback.

We saw this happen at the end of 2018. The FED started raising rates until they went too far, and we had a 20%-25% decline in Q4. Then they reversed course and began easing again. We had a run-up in the market until March of 2020 when Covid hit.

Long term

I believe tech and healthcare will be the two sectors to watch over the next decade or more. With technology getting more advanced every day, investment opportunities will present themselves in these two areas.

Green energy, especially with the incoming administration, is also an industry with big potential. Technology will play a large role in the advancement of renewable energy.

My biggest concern

And I’ll preface this by saying I’m concerned because I truly don’t know the implications of it. MMT looks as likely as ever at this point.

The favorable stance by the FED plus the democratic party holding the House, the Senate, and the Presidency leads me to believe printing money is going to pop off.

An aggressive agenda to provide relief for Americans struggling because of Covid, a push for expanded Medicare/Medicaid benefits, possible student debt relief, as well as other initiatives.

It appears that reducing the national debt is not a concern. To be fair, it wasn’t a concern for the Trump administration either.

The bill comes due for everyone, and if other countries (namely China) are no longer buying US Treasuries like they were, I do not know how we can fund policies, branches, or even service the existing debt. Only time will tell.

Conclusion

I will close by saying that these are my opinions. Granted, I do a lot of research to come to these conclusions, but what I said above are still my thoughts and not foregone conclusions. Do your own research.

The Best, Low Maintenance Way to Invest 30K

December 2, 2020 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

If you’ve been building your savings to start investing and you’ve managed to put aside $30K, you may be wondering what your next step should be. How do I invest 30k? What is the best, low maintenance approach?

Here are some great ways to apply that 30K towards growing your wealth.

Pay Off Debt

First and foremost, use some of the money to pay off any debt you may have. It will save you money in the long-run. If you’re carrying a $10K credit card balance with a 15% interest fee, you’ll be paying an extra $1500/year in interest. That’s money that can be better spent on investments down the road. If you want to invest 30k, first start by getting rid of debt.

Emergency Fund

If you don’t already have one, put some of your money aside in an emergency fund so you know you’ll be able to manage if something unexpected happens. You should have 3-6 months’ worth of expenses put aside in an easily accessible account like a savings account. Just make sure it’s not linked to your debit card so you can’t spend it. The period of time you need to cover varies based on how long you think it would take you to find another job should something happen to your current job.

Earning return

What’s next has all to do with three things: risk tolerance, time horizon, and investment objectives. As a matter of fact, that’s how all of your investment decisions are made.

There are several different vehicles you can utilize, so what I’m going to do is give each vehicle its own section, explain what it is, and then give a little more detail as to when it could be used.

Certificate of Deposit (CD)

A bank product with a specified interest rate and a specified maturity. CDs are used to hold money for a specified period of time in a virtually risk-free fashion. More about CDs.

You’ll choose a CD for two reasons. The first is if you want a safe, federally insured vehicle to stash away some cash. The other reason is if you do not want to touch that money for a specified period. For example, you’re going to buy a house in three years and you don’t want to jeopardize that down payment. You buy/invest in a 3 year CD. At the end of year three, you’ll get back your principal (what you put in) and some accrued interest. Early withdrawal penalties apply.

Savings/Money Market Accounts

Typically used for your emergency fund. Easily accessible, and able to earn a little interest.

That’s pretty much it when it comes to these accounts. The interest they offer will be (not always) pretty low, but, like the CD, it offers a very safe place to store your cash until you need it. Unlike the CD, however, there are no early withdrawal penalties.

Qualified accounts

Basically any retirement account. Traditional IRA, Roth IRA, and employer-sponsored plans (401k, Simple IRA, etc.). There are contribution limits associated with these accounts.

With these accounts, as I said, contribution limits are something to pay attention to. With your Traditional and Roth IRA, there’s a $6,000 contribution limit ($7,000 if you’re 50 and older). 401ks have a limit of $19,500 (25,500 for 50 and older). Simple IRA limit is $13,500 ($16,500 for 50 and older).

This is a long term investment solution, as early withdrawal penalties apply. There are several ways to “exempt” yourself from that penalty, however, such as a first home purchase. For an extensive list of these exemptions, click here.

These accounts are also called “tax-advantaged” accounts because, as the name suggests, there are tax advantages. You either lower your taxable income with your contributions or have the ability to withdraw the funds “tax-free” (barring an early withdrawal penalty, of course).

Non-Qualified Accounts

Brokerage accounts or any investment vehicle that doesn’t have any tax benefits. Meaning, you pay taxes on any capital gains and dividends you receive. No contribution limits.

Honestly, the only advantage to these accounts is there is no contribution limit. For example, if you’ve maxed your contribution for your employer-sponsored plan and your IRA, then you can dump the rest of your money here.

Health Savings Account (HSA)

Accounts specifically designed to help you with your medical expenses. Money that you contribute to this account is “tax-free” or “tax-deductible”, which means it lowers your taxable income. Also, the funds, if used for qualified medical expenses, are tax-free.

With some, not all HSAs, you can invest what you’ve contributed. So if you have 30k to invest, I’ll point you to the below section to help with that. There are contribution limits with the HSA, however, so keep that in mind.

Asset allocation

After you’ve selected an investment vehicle (this section does not apply to CDs, savings accounts, or money market accounts), it’s time to invest your capital.

Asset allocation is my preferred method to invest, and I’ve written extensively on it here. So if you want to invest 30k, here’s what you need to ask yourself. How long until I need these funds? What is my ultimate goal for these funds? What am I willing to lose?

If your time period is less than 5 years, ignore this section and stick your money in a savings account or a CD. The risk/reward is unfavorable in this scenario.

If you have, ideally, 10+ years, then you have some options. The next question is about risk tolerance. What kind of portfolio are you comfortable with? Using the stocks/bonds/cash breakdown, are you a 60/40/0 type of person? Maybe you’re quite tolerant and prefer an 80/20/0 approach.

For those of you that are not tolerant of risk and/or you have a shorter number of years until you need to access these funds. Your portfolio should start at 50/50/0, and then adjust as you see fit. The cash portion in this breakdown should be used as investable cash for when you see a buying opportunity and/or funds you’ll need access to in the near future (unriskable capital).

Risk Tolerance

If you really want to know what your unique risk tolerance is, take our quiz!

I know I didn’t really give a concrete answer to what’s posed in the headline, but that’s the thing about investing – it’s incredibly personal. You need to do what’s best for you.

If time is on your side, max your retirement contribution, then put the rest in a savings account until next year. At that time, max it again.

If time isn’t your friend, a CD isn’t a bad idea. As I said earlier, paying down/off debt is incredibly worth it. That’s an automatic 15% return on your money if you pay off your credit card. Money that can be used more effectively going forward.

Read our articles, ask for advice, and do what’s best for you. That’ll help you answer the question: how do you invest 30k?

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com

Jacob Sensiba

mygfpartner.com/jacob-sensiba-wisconsin-financial-advisor/

Is It Safe to Throw Away Bank Statements?

October 28, 2020 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Before we answer the question as to whether or not it’s safe to throw away bank statements, we need to cover how long you should keep certain statements. The following list is provided by TrueShred.

Statements to shred right away:

Sales receipts (unless you need them for tax purposes; in that case, scan them first)
ATM receipts
Packing slips and online purchase orders
Canceled and voided checks (that aren’t tax-related)
Utility, internet, and cell phone bills (once paid)
Credit card, insurance, and bank account solicitations that come in the mail
Expired warranty coverage
Correspondences from the DMV or IRS (once settled)
Travel-related materials (besides your passport)

List of documents to throw out after 3 years

Bank statements
Credit card statements (once paid)
Pay stubs (once checked against your W-2 for accuracy)
Medical bills (once paid and free of insurance disputes)

List of documents to throw out after 7 years

Tax returns
W-2s
Tax-related receipts and canceled checks
Records for any tax deductions you took
Other tax records

List of documents to throw out (variable intervals)

Auto titles (keep for as long as you own the car)
Home deeds (keep for as long as you own the property)
Disputed medical bills (keep until the issue is resolved)
Home improvement receipts (keep until you sell your house and pay any related capital gains taxes)

List of documents to keep forever

Birth certificates
Adoption papers
Social Security cards
Marriage certificates
Divorce decrees
Citizenship papers
Passports
Death certificates

You should keep these documents in a very safe place. I’d recommend a fireproof safe to keep these things protected.

How should you dispose of sensitive documents?

It is safe to throw away your bank statements, as long as you do so in a particular fashion. If you have a significant amount of paperwork, hire a shredding service. If you don’t have that type of volume, put it through a shredder. Tearing the papers up once or twice won’t do the trick.

Another safe disposal method, as recommended by Patch.com is to wrap up unused or spoiled food with the sensitive documents, and throw them in the refuse bin. Scavengers are more likely to “skip over” the refuse bin when they’re looking for sensitive information for identity theft purposes.

Below, are several ways to dispose of your sensitive documents without the use of a shredder. This list is provided by WigglyWisdom.com.

Hand shred – tear up the paper with your hands. Make sure you tear the vital information and place it in separate recycling bins.
Burn them – local ordinances can hinder your ability to do this, so be sure to check the laws for your municipality. Tear up the paper first, in the same way, you would for point #1, in case a piece of paper flies away.
Compost – paper breaks down and can add carbon to your compost pile.
Soak them in water – 24 hours in a bucket of water can leave your documents illegible.

There are three other items on that list if you’d like to learn a little more.

Conclusion

Bank statements and other financial documents contain incredibly sensitive information. It’s important you a) keep proper records and b) dispose of these items in a safe manner.

Earlier this year, I wrote a piece about the most important financial documents. If you’d like to learn more, go check that out here.

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com

Jacob Sensiba

mygfpartner.com/jacob-sensiba-wisconsin-financial-advisor/

Supply disruptions

Stimulus payments and excess savings

Labor shortages

Infrastructure

The Federal Reserve

Related reading:

Disclaimer

Taxing corporations and the wealthy

Government spending

Borrowing costs

Labor

Conclusion

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Disclaimer

Government Intervention

Rising Prices

Inflation

Disclaimer

Oil Price, Supply and Demand

The future of oil

How should we invest?

Related reading:

Inflation

Gold

Semiconductors

Related reading:

What we need to do

How to prioritize

Conclusion

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Reddit vs Wall Street

What’s a short?

Crypto

Short-term Thoughts

Pundits are using the word “euphoria” more often.

Conclusion

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The dollar

The FED

Long term

My biggest concern

Conclusion

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Pay Off Debt

Emergency Fund

Earning return

Certificate of Deposit (CD)

Savings/Money Market Accounts

Qualified accounts

Non-Qualified Accounts

Health Savings Account (HSA)

Asset allocation

Risk Tolerance

Statements to shred right away:

List of documents to throw out after 3 years

List of documents to throw out after 7 years

List of documents to throw out (variable intervals)

List of documents to keep forever

How should you dispose of sensitive documents?

Conclusion

Related: