Asset Allocation Archives - The Free Financial Advisor

Stock Splits, Asset Allocation, Cognitive Bias

August 26, 2020 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

During the last month, the market and the economy have seen and done some weird things. Apple and Tesla announced stock splits, and the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 achieved record highs. All while COVID cases increase and the economy continues to suffer as a result.

What’s going on?

Stock splits

Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) have seen some crazy increases in their stock prices over the last few months.

Since the beginning of the year, Apple is up about 67% and Tesla is up a whopping 390%. Tesla’s insane run-up is partially due to the influx of retail investors using online platforms, such as Robinhood.

I bring this up for two reasons:

Incredible increases in stock prices, as we’ve seen with Tesla, can be dangerous. Warren Buffett illustrated it best when he said, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” Insane run-ups in value attract more investors until the trade becomes crowded and unsustainable. Then people sell to capture their gains, and the stock price could fall as a result.
Stock splits are not a “get rich quick” trade. I heard someone recently say, “buy Tesla now, before it splits, because once it splits, you’ll make 4x your money in an instant.” Tesla will undergo a 4 to 1 stock split. When Tesla’s stock splits, if you own one share at $2,000, you won’t have 4 shares at $2,000, you’ll have 4 shares at $500. Your total value does not change.

Asset allocation

I knew asset allocation was one of the biggest factors determining investor success, but this year confirmed that.

So far, in 2020, we’ve seen the fastest bear market in history, when the S&P 500 fell 37% in 6 weeks. Followed by an unprecedented run that brought that same index to new record highs.

With appropriate asset allocation, depending on your age, time horizon, and risk, you were able to miss some of the downside and participate in some of the upside.

It’s important to ask the right questions to figure out what the best asset allocation is for you.

Cognitive biases

I’m not going to lie, during the month of March and April, I was feeling pretty proud of myself. Yes, I was worried about the lives affected by COVID and the economic implication it could have, but I did a pretty good job of allocating client assets accordingly.

Even after the market bottomed and started to recover, I held the belief that ugly was just getting started. With everything that I listened to and read, it appeared that once the government stimulus ran out and bankruptcies started rolling in, things would get worse.

I still believe that, but I am making sure that I do research on the opposite view. I’m trying to do what Ray Dalio does so successfully. I’m trying to prove myself wrong.

Only finding sources that back up your thesis is called confirmation bias, and I’m trying to avoid that at all costs.

Make sure you are gathering information from a variety of sources. View both sides of the aisle. Keep your biases in check.

Mistakes to Avoid in Retirement

May 27, 2020 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

In many finance websites, blogs, and articles, a lot has been said about how to prepare for retirement, but I believe there hasn’t been enough written about what to do when you get there. More specifically, there’s a lack of content about mistake, or mistakes, to avoid.

In this article, we’ll explore several mistakes to avoid when you reach this milestone.

Spend beyond your means

This seems obvious, but once the psychological barrier of spending versus savings is breached, people (not everyone) develop this mentality of “I saved for 40 years for this moment, why shouldn’t I enjoy it?”

You should enjoy it. You worked your butt off for it, right? There are strategic ways to do this, however. The mistake is going gangbusters right away.

Create a budget/spending plan – Your budget in retirement will be different than your budget before retirement. Create line items for everything, and get real granular with your discretionary spending (i.e. sub line items to breakdown where the discretionary spending is actually going).
Plan for healthcare – Healthcare costs, generally speaking, will be your largest expense in retirement. Plan accordingly.
Income strategy – More than likely, you’ll have a few different income sources (social security, pension, retirement distributions, etc.). Create a line item for each source.
Senior discounts – Take advantage of every single one. There might be a psychological hesitation with this, as it forces you to come to terms with your age/where you are in life
Spoil grandkids – Every grandparent wants to spoil their grandkids to death, but it must be done within reason. Get creative and be strategic about when and how much.

Make Quick Decisions

Another mistake is making quick decisions. Don’t do it. Any decision you classify as BIG needs to be well thought out. This could be anything like moving, downsizing, vacations, or eliminating a vehicle.

I would argue that any decision about an expense that’s not in your budget/spending plan, should be thought about for several days. My rule of thumb is a week. By then, the euphoria of such a purchase has gone away, then you think more logically about it.

Investing Aggressively

Over the years, a big mistake clients make is the desire to invest more aggressively than they should. Oftentimes, this is to compensate for an inadequate savings rate during their working years or a significant market pullback that hurt their portfolio.

While capital appreciation is still an investment objective in retirement, it’s no longer the primary goal.

This primary goal should be capital preservation. Limiting losses on what you have. This has less to do with time and more to do with your decreasing ability to go out and make more money. Allocate your portfolios accordingly.

Ignoring Estate Planning

Estate planning is a key ingredient to your financial planning recipe. It mustn’t be ignored. Every debt and asset you have needs to be accounted for, listed, and given a task for when you pass.

Estate attorneys can be expensive, but I believe it’s 100% necessary to find one you trust, so your estate is well taken care of.

Isolating Yourself

Your social life is more important than ever. Countless studies show that people with strong relationships outlive those that don’t. So the mistake here is not making your social life a priority.

Join a community, volunteer, retain, and nourish friendships. Whatever flavor of social life sounds desirable, make it a priority.

Letting Yourself Go

Taking care of your mind and body is always important, but especially now. It will keep you healthy, therefore, lowering your healthcare expenditures, but it’s also another way for you to meet people.

Go for walks with neighbors and/or friends. Join a gym. Many of which have reduced rates for seniors. Additionally, many health insurance companies have “silver sneaker” programs that offer inexpensive services and programs for seniors.

Expecting it to be easy

This is a BIG life change and the transition will not be easy.

Not only will you shift from saving to spending, but those social connections you developed over your working years can reduce in frequency and strength.

Go easy on yourself and be patient.

Taking Social Security too early

Unfortunately, there are situations and scenarios where taking Social Security Income (SSI) distributions early is necessary. However, for those of you where this does not apply, speak with a trusted advisor about optimizing your SSI strategy.

Getting Swindled

Scammers adapted. They’re smart and they know how to target susceptible people. Unfortunately, elderly individuals are inherently more at risk than the general population.

Any email, phone call, or text that you receive (unsolicited, of course) should be greeted with a fair amount of skepticism. Don’t willingly give out any pertinent information (name, DOB, social security number, etc.).

Doing it alone

A BIG mistake people make is thinking they can plan by themselves. It would behoove you tremendously to consult with several experts. Estate attorneys and financial advisors should be at the top of this list.

Do your research, check online reviews, and get testimonials from trusted contacts. Having capable professionals in your corner could set you up for success and put your mind at ease.

Dealing with Market Fluctuations

May 6, 2020 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Over the past couple of months, we’ve seen increased volatility. Put simply, volatility is periodic market fluctuations.

In a month, from the end of February to the end of March, we saw the S&P 500 drop nearly 35%. Obviously, it wasn’t a straight drop. There were several up days and a few relief rallies.

Since then, we have seen the S&P come back to the tune of 22%.

In this article, I want to give a little information about how I deal with market fluctuations, where I look for opportunities, and how retirement savers navigate these difficult times.

What I Learned

At the beginning of my career, I always dreaded experiencing a bear market. What do I do? Do I sell out of everything to avoid the decline? What do I tell my clients? How will they react?

As I gained more experience and read more, I learned what to do.

Keep in mind that I started my career in 2014, still in the middle of a long bull market, and since then I’ve read everything I could get my hands on about finances, markets, and economics. I’ve listened to podcasts and watched YouTube videos.

A lot of the people that I learned from attributed their success to when they got started. Two gentlemen really stick out.

One began his career in 1987 and lost his shirt on Black Monday (20% decline in one day, October 1987). This taught him about diversification and the importance of a long-term strategy.

The other got started in the early 80s but had a much different experience. He did some research and analysis and found a lot of risk in the credit market. He stuck his neck out on this trade and what he predicted came to fruition.

However, the markets didn’t react how he thought. What he learned was that fundamentals are important, yes, but what [almost] matters more is investor behavior.

Market Fluctuations

In periods of heightened market volatility, I pretty much hold my ground. I help my clients plan accordingly and coach them about what to do when stocks fall.

We put together the parachute before we jump out of the plane, not on the way down. That’s where people get into trouble. That’s why asset allocation is so important.

When building a portfolio, it’s vital to take your age (time horizon) and risk tolerance into account.

What may even be more important is the investor’s behavior. They might have a long time horizon and be fairly tolerant of risk, but if they’re going to lose sleep over a 10% correction, you need to position their portfolio accordingly.

Because my clients and I plan ahead, generally, I don’t do anything and I advise them to sit tight. What you don’t want to do is sell out of fear. At that point, you have probably experienced enough of the decline that it doesn’t make sense.

Exceptions

That said, I did some broad selling during the month of March. There were two positions that I used specifically to serve as a shock absorber during declines, and those did not perform as I’d hoped. So I sold them.

I realized they weren’t doing what I wanted them to and I cut my losses. Good traders and investors have an incredibly short leash when it comes to limiting their losses.

Opportunities

Generally speaking, I’m not a stock picker. I’m an asset allocator. Stock picking is not an efficient use of my time. However, sometimes it’s necessary and market fluctuations often create opportunities.

There are two positions, in particular, that I’ve been buying over the last month or two. I found enough of a disconnect between the price and what I thought the value would be over the long term, that I slowly invested into these two positions.

By the way, this slow investing is called averaging in, or dollar-cost averaging. Ideally, you invest at lower and lower prices, reducing your overall cost basis. My method is to take advantage of that disconnect I mentioned, but also leave enough on the side in case it goes lower so I can buy more.

How to Plan

Planning for market fluctuations isn’t something you do when you think it’s coming, it should be part of your plan all along.

Age is a big factor when determining the time horizon. The other items to consider, as I mentioned, are goals, risk tolerance, and investor behavior.

As an advisor, you have to be acutely aware and familiar with your clients, their risk appetite, and their personality. Only then are you able to plan with them, then guide them during trying times.

That’s probably one of the biggest things I’ve taken away from these market fluctuations. I’ve received two phone calls. That tells me that I’ve trained them well. That I’ve done a good job planning with them and that they are comfortable with how their portfolios are positioned.

Jemstep Portfolio Manager Review: Finding the Asset Allocation Middle Ground

April 2, 2013 by Average Joe 15 Comments

How do you review your investments? We give Jemstep a test-drive to see if it’s worth your time and money.

As OG bemoaned last week when writing about his broken garage door, at some point, calling a professional is the right move. In the comments, there were some wonderful discussions about finding “experts” without consulting with a person locally by using YouTube videos, better online tools and calling trusted friends.

The Middle Ground in Asset Allocation

There’s plenty of middle ground between wingin’ it and hiring a financial advisor when picking the right basket of investments. One tool I’ve had the opportunity to test drive is Jemstep. After meeting a Jemstep rep at FINCON last year, I was impressed enough with the product to have Simon Roy, the firm’s president, on our 2 Guys & Your Money podcast. He informed me that they were upgrading the product, and now it’s available.

The “New” Jemstep Portfolio Manager

Jemstep is a program that helps you diversify your investments. You know that dartboard you’ve been throwing at? No longer. Jemstep takes the guesswork out of discovering which investments you should be using and pinpoints suitable replacements for duds (or, surprisingly, good investments in asset classes that really don’t meet your investment needs). During my trial run, JemStep told me some things I’d (shamefully) already knew: I’d let my winners run a little too long, and Jemstep recommended cutting back in those “overgrown” areas where the risks now exceeded the chance for rewards.

How Jemstep Portfolio Manager Works

The Jemstep approach is consistent with that of an advisor. First, JemStep asks you questions about your goals. What do you need your portfolio to do? It asks questions about how far away the goal is, how much you may need to access at a time, and other relevant questions. I found this process fun. The interface is intuitive and the style of the website draws you in.

Jemstep Portfolio Manager Review at The Free Financial Advisor

Jemstep asks you for information about your retirement goal, among others. The interface is easy to use, and the blue lines below tell you just how far you still have to go: I have to still fill in information on my finances and investment preferences.

Once you’ve answered goal-related questions, you can upload your portfolio directly from your broker or add in funds manually. Finally, JemStep does it’s work and voila….gives you the correct asset allocation for your goal.

Jemstep Portfolio Manager basic recommendations

Here is the basic recommended portfolio. With these changes, I stand to gain over $9,000 per year in retirement. Yee-haw!

The premium version of Jemstep includes lists of what investments you should sell (in many cases only trim back), which investments you should accumulate, and new suggestions for your portfolio (often in asset classes that don’t exist in your portfolio). Here’s what that looks like:

Jemstep not only tells me which investments to sell, but alerts me to potential capital gains taxes. Every sell recommendation is accompanied by a detailed reason why this investment is on the chopping block. In this case: Apple is one of my worst performers and I have too much individual stock for a portfolio of this size.

The Cost

The Jemstep pricing model isn’t surprising. You can access basic advice for free (this includes the asset allocation you should be using, plus the differences between your portfolio and the suggested one). The premium model, which includes continuous tracking, rebalancing advice, a detailed breakdown of recommended sale quantities and investments, is also free for people just starting out. Pricing begins at $17.99 per month for portfolios over $25,000, and increases based on the amount of money Jemstep is helping you manage. While some who are looking for a freebie might be turned off by the price, this is less than the 1% fee often charged by a financial pro. Want professional advice in your corner without having to sit in an office with some team of people? Great. Jemstep won’t call you with hot stock tips and is there when you need it. In exchange, you’ll pay a model comparable to those used by seasoned investors for less than half the cost.

What I Like, What I Don’t

Here’s what I love: this asset allocation is a proven winner that points you toward the low cost, high return investments in a balanced portfolio. If you’ve ever wanted to have a well-managed portfolio but didn’t know where to start, Jemstep is a great place to begin. Different than some generic asset allocation models that I’ve used, JemStep points you toward specific investment options. For the person who wants to make sure they have low cost investments with a proven track record, Jemstep is for you.

Jemstep partnered with Windham Capital Management to create their recommendations. When back-tested against the S&P 500, Jemstep’s recommended portfolio was impressive: all five of their model portfolios outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 14 years with significantly less risk.

Here’s what I don’t like: results. Yes, JemStep provides impressive results, but will you use them? As I’ve stated before, financial advisors exist for one reason: to make sure that the job is finished. When people left my office, the portfolio moves were complete and people could go about their lives, knowing that the important decisions had been made. A JemStep rep was excited to tell me that 12% of JemStep users actually made changes to their portfolio “because it’s so hard to get people to take action.”

She’s right on.

While 12% usage is a great number for an often-free tool used by people on the internet, you should examine yourself. Are you going to follow through and actually take the advice on JemStep? If you don’t trust yourself to do the job, pay more and hire a human being who’ll give you a shove.

Overall Impression

If you’re managing your own money and aren’t sure how to do it well, give Jemstep a shot and follow the recommendations. If you don’t like your advisor or wonder if the recommendations you’re receiving are any good, take the time to use JemStep to give yourself a “second opinion.” The tool is robust enough that you’ll know immediately if your advisor isn’t diversifying your portfolio in a way that makes sense for your goals.

Jemstep can be found at Jemstep.com. I am not an affiliate of Jemstep and was not compensated for this review.

Six Simple Tips for Beginner Investors

October 19, 2012 by Average Joe 17 Comments

My parents are in town! While I’m partying with my peeps, this guest article was written by our friend Julian over at Frugaal. Frugaal is a website that provides online stock and forex broker reviews, and it also contains a blog focusing on a broad range of financial and frugal-living topics. Enjoy!

You may think that investing is too complicated and difficult for you–especially if you have a very small amount that you’re able to invest. But over the past few years, the internet has made investing a possibility for anyone. Now, using online brokers, even if you only have a very small portfolio you can get all the benefits that the large investors do, just on a smaller scale. Of course, make sure you check out all the options available for you at the different brokerage companies but, in the meantime, take a look at these six simple investing tips for beginners.

Start small, and also don’t be deterred if you don’t have much cash to invest

In the past, it was impossible to start a portfolio with a very small investment. However, now you can get started with as little as $100. In fact, this it’s a good idea to start of small so you can learn the ropes before you start to take things seriously. So get your feet wet by buying a small portfolio containing mutual funds for example; this will give you an idea of how the stock market works and will mean you won’t risk more than you can afford to. However, by choosing wisely, you can find funds that are highly unlikely to ever lose major ground; they just may not have as high of a return as those that are more volatile. When purchasing stocks, beginners should also ideally go to discount online brokerages where, although the level of service will not stretch beyond deal-execution, you will avoid any expensive fees.

Do your homework

This tip doesn’t mean to say it’s a good idea to shell out a ton of money on books and even online or offline tutorials and courses. Instead, it means harnessing the wide range of readily available, free educational tools that are out there. So follow blogs that specifically focus on stock investing; read the financial papers to get an idea of what stocks you might like to purchase; join online forums (often found on the websites of online brokerages) to pitch your questions and ideas to others who have been in the game for longer and are more knowledgeable than you; and, as the very first starting point, be sure to understand some of the basic principles and rules of economics, accounting, and corporate finance. Ultimately, remember that a few Google searches and a few hours spent reading will get you a long way to begin with all this.

Monitor your investments

After you buy your first stocks, check up on them regularly. While you don’t want to become obsessed with checking them several times a day, this is your money that you’ve invested, so you should keep an eye on how things are going. Only by carefully monitoring the investments will you start understanding what makes them go up or down in value over time. A great way of monitoring your investments is by harnessing the capabilities of Google Finance. You can then also get yourself a Google Docs stock portfolio monitoring spreadsheet. The best thing is, both of these services are completely free.

Diversify

In some ways this should be on this list, but in other respects, it shouldn’t. If you have a diverse portfolio you’ll be mitigating against the risk of losses by spreading your investments across a diverse portfolio. Although in principle this is great, the reality is that it’s not possible to get your hands on a truly diverse portfolio with only a small amount of funds unless you buy into an index fund. So don’t be too hung about not being able to foster a diverse portfolio yourself if you don’t have the funds to do it.

Make investing a priority

If you want to add to your portfolio regularly, make investing a priority in your life. The old adage is that you should pay yourself first, meaning you should put aside money for savings before you pay your bills and buy things you need or want. This is excellent advice. Each paycheck, set aside a certain amount that you wish to invest, say 5% for example. It may not be much, but over time it will add up and your portfolio will grow. Investing is also a great thing to get into if you want to reel in your spending sprees and start to look towards the future, particularly if you’re a young adult. This is because unlike placing money into a savings account – a fairly passive and dull activity – investing can be exciting and it can become a new interest of yours, but one that will also allow you to build a healthy nest egg for later on in life too.

Have patience

Investing is not about getting rich overnight. Have patience with your chosen investments. There’s a very good chance they’ll grow and over time will begin to provide you with the financial return you were after. So if you’re after a quick return, investing won’t be the right method of savings for you; remember, investing is for those with time to wait for the market to dictate the rewards. Also, at the very basic level, make sure you’re not duped by any advert or website suggesting ‘get rich quick’ schemes through stock investing either. Put simply, there’s no magic bullet when it comes to stock investing, so don’t try and look for one.

Thanks for filling in, Julian! With the 4th quarter here, it’s time to cha-ching! on your investments. Okay, crew, your turn. Any tips to pile on top of Julian’s for your internet friends (or as my buddy Kathleen says, “the friends in your computer?”

The Secret “Get Rich” Equation

October 18, 2011 by The Other Guy 1 Comment

My mom used to tell me, “there’s a time and place for everything,” which sounds like good, solid meat-and-potatoes mom-speak until you learn that she followed it up with “and now’s the time for gin!”

But the point holds. There is a time and place for everything, including gin, stocks, bonds and real estate.

Every investment has a proper use.

So, today, we’re going to begin the journey toward the pot o’ gold, friends. We’re going to put on our boots and hunt for the secret “get rich” equation that’ll help us choose the perfect investment. Like a good doctor, we’ll focus on a patient with a problem.

Luckily, we happen to have one right here. Julie is a good friend of Average Joe. She’s 32 and wants to retire at 60. She’s in the medical field, and hopes to accumulate enough to have the option to retire even earlier. On the other hand, she currently enjoys her career and isn’t sure if she’ll even want to retire that early. Because of this, she’s looking for flexibility. Good for her. I like to hear stories about people loving their work.

This also helps us eliminate investments. Hear the word “flexibility?” That immediately eliminates several investment choices, narrowing the field.

Isn’t this fun?

And to go faster, we can chuck any discussion about how much money Julie has already saved or which investments she’s currently using. Sure, both are important, but our goal today is to show you how to start choosing the right investment, not to oogle Julie’s assets.

Get your mind out of the gutter. You know what I mean.

Diatribe: Countless advisors I’ve met begin this process in the wrong place, as do plenty of online helpers. This isn’t rocket science. We don’t have to start with today’s hottest investment or the perfect opportunity. Instead, we begin with a simple equation.

I’m back off my soapbox.

The equation is this: Money (times) Return (equals) the Goal.

It’s painfully simple. Julie is going to need so much money and have it perform to a certain specification to reach her end game. It’s math time, boys and girls. If we know two of the factors, we can solve for the third. In this case, what do we know? We already have the goal, and Julie knows the amount of money she currently has stashed away. At this point, she needs to solve for the minimum return she’ll need (at this current pace) to reach her objective.

Ta-da! Once we know the return we need, it’s time to begin choosing investments.

But, before we do that, let’s not gloss over some problems.

We made some assumptions. If someone else performs an analysis on your behalf, you must understand what assumptions were used! If you don’t you’re bound to forget the entire equation. Here are Julie’s assumptions:

– She’s going to continue to save at the same rate until retirement. This could easily change (for better or worse).

– The tax treatment of her assets will not lessen her return between now and retirement (we’re assuming that her return factor will be an after-tax amount).

There are others, but those are the biggies.

Tomorrow we’ll accomplish a single goal: I’ll show you free places online where you can complete this equation. I know, isn’t it exciting?

– Joe

The Least Funny Financial Joke Ev-Ar

October 17, 2011 by The Other Guy 4 Comments

We used to tell a joke. I know, when you think “financial planner”, all you imagine is a group of suits clowning around, and general hilarity, right? Me neither. But, we did have a joke. Maybe you’ve heard it.

A woman walks into a financial advisor’s office. After leading a good discussion about her goals, the advisor asks what investments she’s using toward her objectives. She tells him she has CDs at Bank of America, Wachovia, the corner bank, and her credit union.

The advisor says, “why do you have the CDs spread around at so many banks?”

To which she answered proudly, “I’m diversified!”

Yeah, now you know why my wife never wanted to attend our work Christmas parties. We are cray-zee.

There’s a point here, though. Diversification is about much more than spreading your money around. Although there is a certain leap of faith when diversifying, that leap is far beyond where most investors begin to jump. There’s a ton of science you can perform before you throw your dart toward the target.

Many people begin with the dart. Gold sounds like a good idea. The guy at work l.o.v.e.s. small company stocks. Your boss has ridden Apple all the way to the top. Your cousin invests in rental properties and is making a killing.

These may all be fine investments, but none might reach the goal.

Different investments have performed better or worse depending on the time frame. Historically, the stock market has been a horrible place to invest for short term goals. Bonds have been wonderful during most five year periods. Still, both stocks and bonds have performed poorly over short time periods (such as a year).

One tool that advisors used well during my time in the field was an asset allocation tool. Luckily, you can find these all over the internet. With an asset allocation tool, you’ll find out what investments give you the historically least amount of risk with the greatest chance of return. These tools work very well for someone who’s new to investing, because at the least, they help you find a sensible approach to diversifying your money.

Tomorrow, I’ll have a few places for you to look for good asset allocation tools. For now, if someone would like to be Joe’s guinea pig, how long do you have until your goal? I’d love to have a real-live person to use as an example.