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The FED, The Dollar, and Opportunities

January 13, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

My post for today was supposed to be a personal reflection, but in lieu of that, I’m going to lay out my thoughts on the market and the economy. Which includes the FED, the dollar, and inflation. In addition to that, I want to explain where I see risks and opportunities right now.

The dollar

We can expect the Federal Reserve to continue an accommodative monetary policy. They will invest in the fixed income market and they’ll resume the low-interest-rate stance.

If they continue this response to the Covid crisis, the dollar should go down in value. There are some risks and opportunities that arise if that happens.

Gold and cryptocurrencies should increase in value. A devaluing in the dollar is, normally, the right landscape for “alternative currencies” to do well.

International securities, especially emerging markets, do well when the value is priced lower. A large majority of international transactions take place using the USD. The value of their home currency goes up in relation to the USD.

The technology sector also has a negative correlation to a falling dollar. When the dollar goes down, that sector tends to outperform.

If the dollar, indeed, goes down look at these areas for possible investment opportunities.

The FED

As I mentioned earlier, the FED will continue to create an accommodative environment for the economy…until they don’t.

At some point, the recovery will gain momentum. GDP will go up and the population will gain confidence in that recovery. At this juncture, inflation will pop onto people’s radars.

If inflation runs too hot, the FED could possibly stop, or reduce, QE. They could halt the bond-buying program and they could raise rates. If that happens, keep your eyes out for a pullback.

We saw this happen at the end of 2018. The FED started raising rates until they went too far, and we had a 20%-25% decline in Q4. Then they reversed course and began easing again. We had a run-up in the market until March of 2020 when Covid hit.

Long term

I believe tech and healthcare will be the two sectors to watch over the next decade or more. With technology getting more advanced every day, investment opportunities will present themselves in these two areas.

Green energy, especially with the incoming administration, is also an industry with big potential. Technology will play a large role in the advancement of renewable energy.

My biggest concern

And I’ll preface this by saying I’m concerned because I truly don’t know the implications of it. MMT looks as likely as ever at this point.

The favorable stance by the FED plus the democratic party holding the House, the Senate, and the Presidency leads me to believe printing money is going to pop off.

An aggressive agenda to provide relief for Americans struggling because of Covid, a push for expanded Medicare/Medicaid benefits, possible student debt relief, as well as other initiatives.

It appears that reducing the national debt is not a concern. To be fair, it wasn’t a concern for the Trump administration either.

The bill comes due for everyone, and if other countries (namely China) are no longer buying US Treasuries like they were, I do not know how we can fund policies, branches, or even service the existing debt. Only time will tell.

Conclusion

I will close by saying that these are my opinions. Granted, I do a lot of research to come to these conclusions, but what I said above are still my thoughts and not foregone conclusions. Do your own research.

Down Payment, Rainy Day, Be Prepared

August 12, 2020 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

During the month of June, I wrote an article Down Payment or Investment Opportunities. It was my perspective on what to do with my savings, as I want to buy a home as soon as possible, but I also saw incredible opportunities to make money in the stock market.

Review a previous post

I thought I would revisit this topic, but my mindset shifted a little bit. That’s not to say that I’m proceeding in a different way than I thought I would, but now I’m thinking about it differently.

In that post, I said that I wanted to save $25,000 (I think) for a down payment, and wanted to do it in 4 years.

That meant that I would have to set aside a decent chunk each month to make that a possibility. The caveat to that is I would forego many chances to put money to work in the stock market.

Saving money for a down payment versus actively participating in the market is not the smartest financial decision (in my opinion), but in terms of what’s best for my family and for my psyche, this is the right move.

Because I have conviction in my decision now, my “regret” for not participating in the market has gone away.

When I first made the decision to save for a home instead, I often felt regret because the opportunities to make money were so great. Just from when I wrote that post (June 17) to now, the S&P 500 index ETF (SPY) is up 7.5%.

But I know this is the right choice, so I’m better able to focus my efforts on this goal. I’m eating out much less, I reviewed my budget to see where I could save more, and I’m finding bargains or buying second-hand items where I can.

Rainy day

While we are on the topic of saving money, I want to stress the importance of having some set aside for a rainy day.

As we’ve seen over the past few months, life can get pretty ugly. Now economic and humanitarian events of this scale don’t happen very often, but that’s not the point.

What I’m trying to convey here is that life is unpredictable. You don’t know what’s going to happen, or when. You don’t know how bad it’s going to be, so it’s important you have something set aside if things do get bad.

What’s more, it’s clear that the majority of businesses and corporations don’t have hardly any money set aside when disaster strikes. We like to think that if we put our time and energy working for a company, that they’ll take care of us when the time comes, but it’s clear now that most businesses won’t do that. They’ll protect the bottom line, and that’s that.

Obviously, not every company is like that, but I think it’s safe to say that the majority of organizations operate in this fashion.

Now, I do believe that this event will change how businesses operate. They’ll back away from the lean and mean operations, and start focusing on supply chain redundancy, as well as paying a little more for the security of their products and their people.

Be prepared

What I’m trying to say here is you need to look out for yourself and your family first. Sometimes, it’s necessary to forego big vacations, big expenses, or take out.

I think there’s room to be optimistic but also plan for the worst. I think it’s necessary to do both.

Living a life full of optimism is great, but you become a deer in the headlights when something bad happens. Taking the other side of things, being pessimistic, turns you into a cynic, and that has to be a depressing way to live.

Find room for both. Expect the worst, hope for the best, and save for a rainy day.

Dealing with Market Fluctuations

May 6, 2020 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Over the past couple of months, we’ve seen increased volatility. Put simply, volatility is periodic market fluctuations.

In a month, from the end of February to the end of March, we saw the S&P 500 drop nearly 35%. Obviously, it wasn’t a straight drop. There were several up days and a few relief rallies.

Since then, we have seen the S&P come back to the tune of 22%.

In this article, I want to give a little information about how I deal with market fluctuations, where I look for opportunities, and how retirement savers navigate these difficult times.

What I Learned

At the beginning of my career, I always dreaded experiencing a bear market. What do I do? Do I sell out of everything to avoid the decline? What do I tell my clients? How will they react?

As I gained more experience and read more, I learned what to do.

Keep in mind that I started my career in 2014, still in the middle of a long bull market, and since then I’ve read everything I could get my hands on about finances, markets, and economics. I’ve listened to podcasts and watched YouTube videos.

A lot of the people that I learned from attributed their success to when they got started. Two gentlemen really stick out.

One began his career in 1987 and lost his shirt on Black Monday (20% decline in one day, October 1987). This taught him about diversification and the importance of a long-term strategy.

The other got started in the early 80s but had a much different experience. He did some research and analysis and found a lot of risk in the credit market. He stuck his neck out on this trade and what he predicted came to fruition.

However, the markets didn’t react how he thought. What he learned was that fundamentals are important, yes, but what [almost] matters more is investor behavior.

Market Fluctuations

In periods of heightened market volatility, I pretty much hold my ground. I help my clients plan accordingly and coach them about what to do when stocks fall.

We put together the parachute before we jump out of the plane, not on the way down. That’s where people get into trouble. That’s why asset allocation is so important.

When building a portfolio, it’s vital to take your age (time horizon) and risk tolerance into account.

What may even be more important is the investor’s behavior. They might have a long time horizon and be fairly tolerant of risk, but if they’re going to lose sleep over a 10% correction, you need to position their portfolio accordingly.

Because my clients and I plan ahead, generally, I don’t do anything and I advise them to sit tight. What you don’t want to do is sell out of fear. At that point, you have probably experienced enough of the decline that it doesn’t make sense.

Exceptions

That said, I did some broad selling during the month of March. There were two positions that I used specifically to serve as a shock absorber during declines, and those did not perform as I’d hoped. So I sold them.

I realized they weren’t doing what I wanted them to and I cut my losses. Good traders and investors have an incredibly short leash when it comes to limiting their losses.

Opportunities

Generally speaking, I’m not a stock picker. I’m an asset allocator. Stock picking is not an efficient use of my time. However, sometimes it’s necessary and market fluctuations often create opportunities.

There are two positions, in particular, that I’ve been buying over the last month or two. I found enough of a disconnect between the price and what I thought the value would be over the long term, that I slowly invested into these two positions.

By the way, this slow investing is called averaging in, or dollar-cost averaging. Ideally, you invest at lower and lower prices, reducing your overall cost basis. My method is to take advantage of that disconnect I mentioned, but also leave enough on the side in case it goes lower so I can buy more.

How to Plan

Planning for market fluctuations isn’t something you do when you think it’s coming, it should be part of your plan all along.

Age is a big factor when determining the time horizon. The other items to consider, as I mentioned, are goals, risk tolerance, and investor behavior.

As an advisor, you have to be acutely aware and familiar with your clients, their risk appetite, and their personality. Only then are you able to plan with them, then guide them during trying times.

That’s probably one of the biggest things I’ve taken away from these market fluctuations. I’ve received two phone calls. That tells me that I’ve trained them well. That I’ve done a good job planning with them and that they are comfortable with how their portfolios are positioned.