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Impeachment And The Stock Market

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President Donald Trump frowning, with Vice President Mike Pence behind him

The talk of impeachment is flooding the headlines, so we’re going to explore it, how impeachment proceedings took place in the past, what happened to the market with each instance, and what you should do with your money/investments while these events transpire.

What’s the process?

The first step in any impeachment proceeding begins with a formal inquiry. This is done by the House of Representatives, and that’s where we are at this point in time.

During the inquiry, the evidence is gathered by the house to help make their case. Once they’ve gathered everything they needed, they take a vote.

If that vote passes, it goes to the Senate. They, like the House, review the evidence and take a vote. If the Senate’s vote doesn’t pass, then the President may be acquitted, and things end there.

What history tells us

There have been three impeachment inquiries, with only one actual impeachment.

The first was Andrew Johnson in 1868. The second was Richard Nixon in 1973. The third was Bill Clinton in 1998.

Which one was impeached? Bill Clinton. However, the Senate acquitted him and he was not removed from office.

When Andrew Johnson went through the impeachment process, the stock market (yes there was a stock market back then) really didn’t do anything, finishing that year up 1.5%.

During the impeachment proceedings with Nixon, the United States was in the middle of a recession. From the initial inquiry to the day he resigned from office, the S&P 500 fell about 30%.

With Clinton, however, the economy and the stock market were in the middle of an expansion. From beginning to end, the S&P 500 gained about 28% during his impeachment process.

What history tells us is that the period surrounding the impeachment will lead to greater volatility, but the long-term direction of the market is determined by fundamentals.

Be mindful of the headlines

The current impeachment inquiry with President Trump is dramatically different from the other three.

  • The internet makes updating the public instantaneous
  • Algorithmic trading can be programmed to execute orders when publications mention Trump, impeachment, etc.
  • We’re in the middle of a trade war with China, so uncertainty at home (U.S.) puts Trump in a weaker position to negotiate. What’s more, if impeachment looks more and more likely, Trump may be inclined to make a deal to help his case…even if it’s a bad one.

What should you do?

That depends. If you have 15+ years until you need to access your investments, I would tell you to do nothing. If you’re in retirement or it’s right around the corner, however, I would think about being a little more conservative.

When you grow more reliant on your retirement savings, your primary objective must move from capital appreciation to capital preservation.

I’ll link to several resources that should give you more guidance about retirement planning by age, investing in volatility, and more information about what’s been discussed here.

Related Reading:

How Does Trade Policy Affect Me?

The Questions You Need To Ask Yourself

The Questions You Need To Ask Yourself

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Questions are a fantastic way to understand things better. They are vitally important in our everyday lives.

One area where I think they are underutilized is personal finance.

You NEED to ask yourself questions on the regular so you can discern if you are doing the right things and taking the correct steps for YOU.

In the following article, we’re going to explore the various questions you need to ask yourself in order to be financially effective.

What is my goal with money?

This is a fairly general question, so we’ll break it down into three buckets: short term, medium-term, and long term.

  • Short-term (Under 2 years) – If you are saving for a short-term goal, what is it? A vacation? Down payment on a house? No matter the goal, that money will be used soon so the best place for it is in a savings account.
  • Medium-term (2-10 years) – This could be anything from a down payment for a house to saving for your kids’ college education. What you do in the interim depends on when you’ll need it and the goal you are saving for. If it’s less than 5 years, I’d still recommend a savings account or short-term bonds. Something that can earn you a little interest, but is still relatively safe. That 5-10 year period depends on the goal. If there’s a particular dollar amount you need to it (down payment, for instance) I’d go no more than moderately aggressive. You want to earn a little, but you don’t want that saved amount to go under what you need.
  • Long-term (10+ years) – Most often, a goal that’s over 10 years away can be invested in the stock market, though the percentage of your assets that’s actually in the market depends on the risks you are willing to take and when you need to access those funds.

Related reading: Financial planning for all ages

How much am I willing to lose before I sell?

I almost always propose this question to new clients because it gives me a good understanding of their risk tolerance.

If they are only comfortable with losing 10 percent of their portfolio, they’ll be invested pretty conservatively.

On the other hand, if they can tolerate a 50 percent drawdown and not bat an eye, then we can “put the pedal to the floor”, excuse the expression.

Determine how much of a loss you can stomach and that will give you a good idea of how to allocate your assets.

How long will it take to adjust my allocations?

Questions regarding asset allocation, typically, pertain to risk and time horizon. For example, if you start saving for retirement when you’re 25, the majority of your portfolio will be in equities (stocks).

This allocation, generally speaking, is suitable for you for a couple of decades. At which point, you’ll probably (again, speaking generally) want to shift a little more of your portfolio to bonds.

Your allocation will, and should, shift over time, and once you get within a few years of your goal, the primary objective of your portfolio becomes capital preservation.

Are my actions suitable for my current financial situation?

Financial situation takes everything into consideration (income, debt, spending, savings, etc.) Actions can be anything related to those items.

Specifically what I’m talking about is how much you are saving, how much you are spending, and how much $ you’ve dedicated to paying down debt.

If you have a sizeable amount of debt and not a whole lot of savings, it’s time to cut your spending. Conversely, if you’ve paid down your debt and are ahead of the game with your savings, it would be alright if you loosened up a little and enjoy yourself.

Like everything in life, your personal finances are a delicate balancing act, and when you ask questions, you can figure out how to shift your priorities.

How is my money being spent?

Kind of related to the last point. Tracking your spending to find out exactly where all of your dollars are going is an important step.

Another recommendation I usually make is to create a financial playbook. Here’s a brief outline of how I create a financial playbook:

  1. Big picture – List all assets and liabilities. How much you have saved and how much debt you have.
  2. List your necessary expenses – These are things that you have to pay (rent, utilities, transportation, food, minimum debt payments, etc.)
  3. List your monthly income
  4. Total up your monthly necessary expenses and your monthly income and see how much you have leftover. What’s leftover will help you discern what to do with it.
  5. I would list another line item for “fun,” though I would keep it to a minimum.
  6. What’s left after fun should be saved and used on debt.

Related reading: How to cut your spending

Conclusion

As I said in the beginning, questions help us understand the world, and ourselves, better.

Having a better grasp on why and when we make certain changes or do certain things is a must if we are to be more effective in managing our finances.

What It Take To Be A Successful Investor

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What makes a successful investor? Is it your ability to beat the market or to beat your competition?

In my opinion, being a successful investor doesn’t have to do with out-earning your peers or leaving the S&P in the dust. No, my definition is very simple.

Develop an investment plan using a variety of factors, and be able to execute and follow that plan indefinitely.

Suitability

This is step 1. You need to figure out what your “suitability” is. Your suitability will lay a very good foundation upon which you build your investment plan. Suitability involves three things:

  • Risk tolerance – This is your ability to handle drawdowns in your portfolio. If you crumble with fear every time you lose 5 percent, then you’ll probably want a fairly conservative portfolio*. On the other hand, if you have no problem seeing your portfolio drop 50 percent, then you’re ready for a more aggressive allocation.
  • Time horizon – Probably the most important factor of the three. Your time horizon is basically when you’ll need the money. A long time horizon allows an investor to take on more risk because there’s more time for them to recover from drawdowns. The inverse is true for short time horizons. You’ll want to be conservative because you have little time to earn back what’d you lost.
    • Long time horizon – 10+ years
    • Medium time horizon – 2-5 years
    • Short time horizon – Less than 2 years
  • Goals – What’s your plan? Is this savings going to be used as a down payment for a house? If so, there’s probably a minimum dollar amount you have in mind and you’ll want to tip the odds in your favor that you don’t go below that. Similarly, if this is for retirement and you have 30 years to invest, you have the green light for risk assets.

Keep in mind that all three of these things, plus one other, need to be used together when determining your asset allocation. If you are tolerant of risk, but need the money in 5 years, somewhere in the middle between aggressive and conservative is probably better. That one other thing is your behavior as an investor.

Investor behavior

The finance/investment world is coming around to this, but your psychology is a HUGE factor as an investor.

Obtaining a high return on assets is one of your goals, but it should not be the primary goal. When you create an investment plan you have to make sure it’s something you can actually stick with.

I wrote about it previously, here.

You could be tolerant to risk and you could have a long time horizon, but if you lay awake at night every time the market drops, then you need to rethink your approach.

That kind of fear and anxiety hinders your ability to follow your plan. What normally happens, is someone sets an unrealistic investment plan, one where they take on too much risk.

Thereafter, volatility picks up. They check their portfolio and it’s declined 15 percent. They wait a day and check the next.

Another 2 percent drop. Then the thought of 2008 creeps into their heads and the panic sell.

You can set up a great investment plan, but your behavior will ultimately make the decisions. Keep that in mind.

Asset allocation

Using your suitability and behavior, you can then determine your asset allocation. The types of assets you use in your allocation can vary. If you wanted to invest a small percentage of your portfolio in gold, for instance.

The three most common assets are stocks, bonds, and cash. With risks ranging from high risk to virtually (there’s always some risk) no risk.

Speaking very generally, people with long time horizons and are more tolerant of risk, have a more aggressive portfolio. The inverse is true for people with short time horizons and a low-risk tolerance.

That said, the ultimate goal is to develop a plan that meets your goals in the smoothest fashion possible.

Ignore the noise

Throughout your investment “career” you’ll run into people, friends, family, or even random people on the street that will tell you the sky is falling or that the newest IPO will go gang-busters and you need to get in now!

Put your blinders on. There are two things that hurt investors. Their own behavior and their ability, or lack thereof, to tune out what’s happening around them.

This is extremely difficult because we, as humans, have evolved to use our peers to compare or judge, our standing in society.

Stay in your lane and focus on your goals.

Never stop learning

Every single experience in your life is a learning opportunity, especially the bad one. I recommend journaling daily, recount your day, and dig little nuggets of knowledge from your experiences.

Additionally, take in some form of content every day that improves your understanding in your line of work, or in an industry that you’re interested in.

With regard to your finances, give our Toolkit page a look. There you’ll find a number of books and resources to enhance your financial know-how.

Please be advised: Everything written in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Opinions are my own and do not reflect the opinions of this publisher or my employer.