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Who Needs to Worry About the Stock Market and Why?

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Earlier this week we saw the NASDAQ take a dive and Facebook lost 5% in one day. Volatility is part of the stock market. That’s how it’s been and I think that’s how it’s always going to be. Suffice it to say that the stock market is otherwise unpredictable and it’s something that investors are aware of. But who really needs to worry about the stock market?

Who needs to worry?

The complicated answer is, it depends. It depends on what you’re saving for, how old you are, and your time horizon.

Generally speaking, if you’re saving for retirement, the people closer to retirement need to pay attention to the market more than the younger people. That’s also why asset allocation is important. The closer you are to retirement, the more money you should have in less risky investments.

Time Horizon

If you have a short-term goal you’re saving for then you have to be a little more careful. If you’re saving for college, for example, the closer you get to having to use those funds to pay for college, the more conservative you’ll have to be.

What happens in the stock market only concerns people with a short time horizon. I actually should phrase it differently. What happens in the stock market SHOULD only concern people with a short time horizon.

Asset Allocation

When I say all of these things, I’m specifically talking about broad-based financial planning. People who are saving for a particular goal and are using asset allocation for their investments. Meaning they’re selecting mutual funds or ETFs that follow some sort of index. If you’re investing in specific stocks or thematic ETFs, then you probably have to pay a little more attention.

And I’m not saying that people with long-term time horizons shouldn’t pay attention to their accounts. I’m simply saying that they shouldn’t live and die on what the value of their account is day in and day out. Don’t worry about the stock market.

Related reading:

What Currently Present a Risk to Markets?

Why Asset Allocation Matters

Why Financial Literacy is Important

Disclaimer:

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see the website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com

What Currently Present a Risk to Markets?

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Where is the market going? What kind of risks do we need to be aware of? There are three or four things to pay attention to right now. The FED, interest rates, inflation, Covid, China, the government, and geopolitics. Do any of these present a risk to markets?

Okay, more than three or four things, but the first three can all be lumped together. Interest rate policy is enacted by the FED and what happens with interest rates has a direct impact on inflation. Furthermore, the government also has a chance to impact inflation.

And I apologize if we bounce around a little from topic to topic.

The FED, Interest Rates, Inflation

The government and the FED have a lot of control over what inflation is going to do. We had a lot of liquidity injected into the market because of the pandemic, and there’s a very good chance we’ll see more of that in the near future.

A $3.5 trillion bill is circulating through Congress right now. If this bill gets passed, we’ll have a lot more liquidity injected into the market. That’s likely to be a large tailwind for inflation (which is already running much hotter than expected). If the FED continues to provide an accommodative monetary policy, we’ll see inflation get out of control, and they’ll have to increase interest rates much sooner than they had planned.

Covid

Covid is still hanging around. 75% of the country has received at least one shot and now the administration is pushing booster shots. This is even after the CDC and the WHO have insisted on holding off on a third shot until less fortunate countries have a chance to get more of their first poke. The numbers need to level off soon or I fear lockdowns may rear their ugly head, and we all know how much the economy liked that the first time around.

China

China is a new story. Specifically, Evergrande. The ginormous real estate company is on the brink of bankruptcy. Comparisons have been made to the collapse of Lehman Brothers during the GFC (great financial crisis). We’ll see what happens and if the Chinese government decides to step in. Ripple effects through the global monetary system are possible.

Geopolitics

The last story is geopolitics. This has to do with the deal the US and Australia struck to help the Australian government build nuclear-capable submarines. It angered France because they already had a deal with Australia to help them build submarines (not nuclear-capable though). Britain feels pretty good because they helped broker the US/Aussie deal. Most likely, this will end up being only noise but could present a risk to markets. Something to keep your eye on.

Related reading:

What does an increase in yields look like?

The resurgence of Covid and what it means

Investment concerns and opportunities

Disclaimer:

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see the website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com

Can You Tell ME the Best Way to Negotiate an ER Bill?

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best way to negotiate an ER Bill

An unexpected trip to the emergency room (ER) usually comes with a pretty high price tag. Whether you have medical insurance or not, the amount you owe could be significant, so much so that fitting it into your budget may be impractical, if not impossible. Luckily, you can negotiate your ER bill, creating an opportunity to reduce what you owe. Here’s a look at the best way to negotiate an ER bill.

Review the Bill for Accuracy

Before you do anything else, you need to take a moment and make sure your ER bill is accurate. Mistakes aren’t as uncommon as you’d think, and when they occur, you may be able to get them removed if you can show that they are incorrect.

If you’re ER bill only shows one total, request an itemized bill from the hospital. That way, you can review each individual charge to see if any might be mistakes. If your itemized list only featuring medical billing codes and not descriptions, there are numerous sites online that let you check them. However, you can also speak with the billing department and ask for the definitions.

If you do find errors, speak with the hospital billing department about the mistakes. Request that they remove or recode those line items and re-submit your bill to your insurance company. That way, you’ll be working with an accurate bill once your new one arrives.

Research Going Rates for Services

Another step you need to take before actively negotiating is to research the going rate for the same services at other hospitals. In some cases, you can secure a lower price by simply pointing out that other facilities charge less as long as you can prove that is the case.

Similarly, if you’re uninsured, researching the rates that insured patients are charged can work in your favor. It lets you determine the fair market price for the services you received and use those as a basis for a cost reduction request.

Gather Up Some Cash

Before you make the call to negotiate, determine how much you could afford to pay in cash right away. Many healthcare facilities offer cash discounts, especially if you can make a substantial lump sum payment right away.

Mainly, cash discounts are offered for two reasons. One, they allow hospitals to avoid credit card fees or similar expenses. Two, they eliminate a lot of administrative work, including issuing you additional bills, handling account maintenance, and following up on your debt.

See if you can gather most of what you owe in cash before the due date on your bill. That way, you have another point to pursue during the negotiation.

Start Asking About Financial Assistance

With all of the information you’ve gathered in hand, it’s time to contact the hospital and begin the negotiation process. Usually, once you have an accurate ER bill in hand, your first step isn’t to focus on the charges themselves when you call the billing department. Instead, you want to ask about financial assistance programs.

All nonprofit hospitals are required to have financial assistance programs for long-income patients. Additionally, the majority of for-profit hospitals have them as well.

Exactly what’s available may vary by state and facility. Additionally, whether or not you qualify may depend on several factors, including your income level, whether you have insurance or Medicare, and more. However, if you are eligible for assistance, your out-of-pocket obligation may shrink substantially, if not disappear entirely.

Continue with the Negotiation

If you don’t qualify for enough financial assistance to make your bill manageable, continue with the negotiation. Present what you know about fair market prices for the services you received as a starting point. See if they are willing to reduce any of the individual charges that aren’t in line with local norms.

If the first person you speak with isn’t able to do anything about pricing, ask to speak with a supervisor. You may have to move a few levels up to get to someone who has the ability to negotiate the costs, so keep asking for the person’s supervisor until you reach the right people.

After that, if you have enough cash to pay most – but not all – of the bill, as about cash discounts. Don’t lead off with how much money you have available. Instead, simply ask if they offer price reductions to people who can pay the majority of the bill in cash all at once.

If the cash discount they offer brings your bill down enough, you can simply arrange to pay it. If you are just barely short of the total price they present, ask if they would take the amount you have available instead. In some cases, if you’re close, they’ll accept. However, this isn’t guaranteed.

Request a Payment Plan

Many hospitals understand that ER bills are hard for patients to manage. As a result, most make payment plans available to patients. Not only are they a way to avoid medical collections while spreading out the repayment process, but they are also usually interest-free.

Speak with the billing department about payment plans and see what they can offer. If the payment size is manageable, you can simply agree to the terms and begin making payments.

However, if you’re experiencing a hardship that makes the payment they presented too difficult to shoulder, be honest about that. Let them know what you can reasonably afford and see if they are willing to accept that amount instead. If they agree, you can move forward with the arrangement.

Get Help from a Patient Advocate

If you’ve spoken with the billing department and still haven’t found a mutually acceptable solution, you may want to connect with a patient advocate. A patient advocate will help you navigate financial assistance programs and negotiate with the healthcare facility, increasing the odds that you can get the bill reduced to a manageable point.

As you look for a patient advocate to assist you, check the credentials of any contenders. Ideally, they need to be certified by a reputable organization, as well as have education or training that’s relevant to your situation. That way, you can rely on their expertise, as well as increase your odds of finding a solution.

Do you have any other tips that can help someone negotiate an ER bill? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

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My Thoughts on Climate Change

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There’s no doubt climate change is a problem and this post isn’t going to be me grandstanding about the dire consequences of no action, and it certainly won’t be refuting that climate change is real. This post will specifically be about what I think the free market will do to fix it and what us ordinary people can do to contribute positively to the situation.

Now I have to admit, when it comes to understanding climate change and acting in a fashion that would make some sort of positive impact on our current direction, I’ve taken a more laid-back approach.

I was annoyed by both sides of the argument as I felt they were both taking an extreme stance (shocking right?). Also, I feel like humanity has a beautifully unique ability to figure things out when it’s necessary.

If you want to learn more about the evidence and facts surrounding climate change, here are two sources – Climate.NASA.gov and Climate.gov.

Tech Meets Climate Change

There are a plethora of inventions, some being used right now and some still in the works, that will help fight climate change. Because there are so many and I want to spotlight as many as I can that seems like a good idea, I’m going to organize them in a few ways.

Alternative Energy – Massive palm tree wind farms, future iterations of solar panels, kinetic pavement, new power transfer technologies, nuclear fusion.

Save the atmosphere – Drone that plant trees, satellites that spot methane leaks, giant vacuums to clean carbon from the air.

Save the environment – pumps that cool coral reefs, plastic eating enzymes, encourage phytoplankton to grow using technology, futuristic agriculture, protect bees.

Uncategorizable – genetic modification, solar geoengineering.

What can you do?

Like I said in the beginning, climate change is a problem, but human beings are smart enough and innovative enough to find solutions to fix it. In the meantime, there are some things you can do to help.

  • Have an energy audit
  • Change your light bulbs to LEDs
  • Replace HVAC filters frequently
  • Wash clothes in cold water
  • Upcycle furniture
  • Recycle clothes
  • Unplug electronic devices when not in use
  • Obsess over every drop of water
  • Recycle
  • Hand dry your clothes
  • Reduce food waste
  • Don’t drink bottled water
  • Carpool or take public transportation

There are a lot of things you can do to make an impact. If everyone contributed a little to the cause, maybe we can move the needle.

Related reading:

Technological Investment Opportunities

Why Financial Literacy Is Important

Sources:

Globalcitizen.org

BBC.CO.UK

Archive.curbed.com

Disclaimer:

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see the website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com

What Does an Increase in Yields Look Like?

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I’m not going to lie. I had a lot of trouble coming up with the substance for today’s article. There have been developments since I wrote two weeks ago, but that hasn’t really changed some of the things I’ve said before. I still see inflation as a problem and I still see investment opportunities in a select few areas. What does an increase in yields mean?

The Federal Reserve

The one new piece of information that is worth noting is that the FED has indicated that if the information supports their narrative, they will decrease their asset purchasing program later this year.

That’s a very significant piece of news and the market knows it. Yields increased immediately, only by 7 basis points, or .07%. That may sound like a small move, but in a couple of minutes, that’s HUGE.

Covid

Two weeks ago I mentioned the possibility of mask mandates and stay-at-home orders. I thought that the Delta variant was causing enough worry and panic that this could happen.

In the United States, we have not seen any stay-at-home orders, but we have seen mask mandates and vaccination requirements. Outside of the U.S., however, we have seen a crackdown on domestic and international travel.

There’s a possibility that we see more stay-at-home orders as the Delta variant continues to spread and increase the number of Covid cases.

Investment Implications

With the threat of inflation becoming more poignant and stay-at-home orders becoming more likely, what are the investment implications?

When it comes to inflation, the short-term effects will be much more dramatic and noticeable than the long-term effects. I think a rise in inflation and a drying up of liquidity will have broad, negative effects throughout the financial system.

An increase in yields will cause bond prices to drop. An increase in yields will make servicing that debt more expensive, so it’s likely R&D spending will go down. It could also negatively affect sectors that rely on borrowing.

There’s also a chance that people will save more. An increase in yields means the interest rate for their savings account will go up, making saving more attractive. If you want to save, try signing up to Digit.

An increase in yields could also cause a migration from “riskier” assets to assets deemed less risky.

Only time will tell what inflation will look like, how the FED will respond, and what the implications will be.

Related reading:

The Resurgence of Covid and What it Means

Investment Concerns and Opportunities

What’s the Federal Reserve Going to Do?

Why Financial Literacy is Important

Disclaimer:

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see the website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com

The Resurgence of Covid and What it Means

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In today’s post, we’re going to talk about the investment and economic implications caused by the resurgence of Covid-19 due to the delta variant. Supply and logistics changed dramatically last year when parts of the world shut down. Delivery times slowed down and costs increased because of lack of supply and disrupted logistics.

We started to see a recovery. Supply issues started to resolve themselves. Supply chain constraints started to get better. Costs for items (due to chip shortages and increases in energy prices) started to level out.

So what’s going to happen if we have a resurgence of Covid and things shut down, or slow down, again?

The Federal Reserve

Like everything, only time will tell. The FED gave a little glimpse into what their plans were for interest rates and quantitative easing at the last meeting. They state that if the economy continues to improve as it has been, they might reduce their balance sheet and consider increasing interest rates by the end of 2023.

If the delta variant causes enough of a disruption, that could push back their timeline for ending/implementing such a plan. In either case, they’ve stated that they will continue with easy monetary policy for the foreseeable future, even if inflation starts to run hot.

Commodities

If the risks around Covid-19 continue to present themselves, we’ll continue to see moves in important items, including the US Dollar, Gold, Treasuries, Yields, and Oil.

In risk-on environments, the USD, gold, and Treasuries typically increase in value. Yields usually will go down as well. The only X-factor when it comes to economics and commodities is oil. The change in the price of oil is very different this time because of travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders.

Oil

Demand for oil went straight down, so oil prices went down. Major oil producers needed to then reduce production to decrease supply so prices could recover. Then demand started to pick up and oil prices quickly came back so production needed to increase to level off prices.

With all that said, oil prices and the major producers’ production will be range-bound for a while. The delta variant is causing too much worry to peg a direction for oil in the near term.

Long-term, I think oil will recover to pre-pandemic levels for a little while, but as electric vehicles and renewable energy become more commonplace, I think demand will dry up. Then prices will go down as a result. How much the price of oil goes down, only time will tell.

Investment Opportunities

If there’s a resurgence of Covid or not, there are a few opportunities I think will transcend the short-term volatility, and I’ve talked about them before. Clean energy and healthcare. I think both of these industries, in terms of runway, are in their infancy.

Healthcare has come so ridiculously far over the years, but I feel there’s so much room to run yet. Clean energy is just getting started. With countries and companies vowing to reduce carbon emissions to zero over the coming years, or decades, there will be rapid advancement in this sector.

Related reading:

Investment Concerns and Opportunities

What’s the Federal Reserve Going to do?

Disclaimer:

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see the website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com

Is It a Good Idea to Be a Salaried Employee?

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When it comes to compensation at your job, there are usually two possible options. You are either hourly or salaried. In many cases, the company dictates which applies to your position. Meaning, you don’t necessarily get to pick what you receive for a specific role. However, by knowing the differences, benefits, and drawbacks, you can figure out if one approach meets your needs better than another. Then, you can use that during a job search. Thus, focusing on positions that provide what you’re after. If you’re wondering whether it is a good idea to be a salaried employee, here’s what you need to know.

Salaried vs. Hourly: What’s the Difference?

The main difference between salaried and hourly jobs is how you’re paid. In a salaried position, you’re paid a set amount each pay period, such as every week, two weeks, or month. The number of hours you actually work doesn’t necessarily factor into the equation, barring certain exceptions.

For example, you may be required to work a certain minimum number of hours each workday or workweek if you want to keep your pay for that period at its usual level. Otherwise, you might have to use paid leave if you’re going to be absent or fall below the requirement.

With hourly work, you’re paid based on the exact number of hours you work. Your pay rate is listed as “per hour,” so the number of hours you work impacts your paycheck each pay period. You may be given a schedule in advance, but your job may not be dependent on working a minimum number of hours on a weekly or per-pay-period basis.

The Benefits of Being a Salaried Employee

As a salaried employee, you get a level of financial security. You know how much you’re earning, and the amount tends to be reasonably consistent.

Additionally, salaried employees usually receive additional benefits, like medical and retirement. Paid leave is more common here as well.

Finally, salaried positions tend to be more career-oriented. You might have more chances to learn, grow, and develop, which could make it easier to advance into higher-paying roles.

The Drawbacks of Being a Salaried Employee

The biggest downside is that salaried employees aren’t always eligible for overtime. If you work more than 40 hours per week, you don’t get additional money in your check.

Additionally, since there isn’t overtime pay, there can be additional pressure to work long hours to accomplish certain objectives. While this isn’t always the case, when it happens, it can make the environment more stressful.

Is It a Good Idea to Be a Salaried Employee?

Whether becoming a salaried employee is a good idea for you depends on your needs and preferences. If you’d rather have a set paycheck, access to benefits, and more opportunities for growth, that may make not earning overtime worthwhile.

However, if you’d rather be compensated for every hour you work or experience less pressure to stay at your job beyond your scheduled time, salaried jobs might not be a great fit. Hourly might give you the flexibility you’re after, allowing you to clock out at the end of the day with less stress.

Do you think it’s a good idea to be a salaried employee? Why or why not? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

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Refinancing Your Car-Here are The Pros and Cons

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pros and cons of refinancing your car

At some point, many people think about refinancing their car loans. In some cases, it can even look like a great deal. The issue is, refinancing your car comes with pros as well as cons. If you’re wondering whether you should move forward, here’s what you need to consider.

The Pros of Refinancing Your Car

Usually, the pros of refinancing your car are easy to see. One of the biggest is that you may be able to secure a lower monthly payment.

When you refinance, you get a chance to choose a new loan term. If you extend out your repayment, you can shrink how much you have to put toward your loan each month.

Second, you might snag a better interest rate. Auto loan rates are lower now than in many previous years. Additionally, if your credit score went up, you may qualify for something better than you were eligible for when you made the initial purchase.

With a lower interest rate, you might be able to spend less in interest and secure a lower monthly payment. In some cases, you can even reduce your payment all without extending your repayment term, thanks to a rate reduction.

Finally, if you refinance your car loan for more than you owe, you may be able to use that extra cash for something else. This may help you with a financial emergency or let you handle something that’s otherwise unaffordable, like a car repair or home improvement project. However, this only works if you have enough equity.

The Cons of Refinancing Your Car

Refinancing your auto loan can come with drawbacks. First, you may have to pay several fees to secure a new loan. In some cases, the fees are sizeable enough to offset any interest savings you may capture or may cause you to pay more than you would have with your old loan.

Additionally, extending out the repayment term could lead you to pay more over the life of the loan in interest, even if you secured a rate reduction. For example, if you have $8,000 left on your loan, a 9 percent interest rate, and 36 months on your current term, you’ll pay $1,158 in interest during the rest of the repayment period.

If you refinance that $8,000 at 6 percent but extend the repayment over 60 months, you’d pay $1,280 in interest. That means you’ll actually spend more in interest, all while having the loan hanging over your head for longer.

Also, refinancing may impact your credit score. Hard inquiries can cause your score to fall, as well as lowering the average age of your accounts, both of which usually happen if you refinance.

Finally, refinancing could mean you’ll be upside down on your loan for longer. If that’s the case, even if you have insurance, you may not get enough to pay off your loan if your car is totaled. That can create a serious hardship.

Is Refinancing Your Car the Best Move for You?

Ultimately, whether refinancing your car is a smart move depends on your situation. Consider the pros and cons carefully. Then, make the choice that best meets your needs today and over the long term.

Can you think of any other pros and cons of refinancing a car? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

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Investment Concerns and Opportunities

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There are investment concerns and opportunities pretty much any way you turn. Healthcare looks great, but what about the costs associated with treatment? Technology is improving every day, but what’s going to happen with possible regulations? Is the FED going to pop our bubble?

Plenty can happen so let’s explore it together.

The FED

The FED doesn’t appear like it’ll stop its asset-buying program and accommodative monetary policy anytime soon, and it said just that in its most recent meeting.

That’s a good sign for the economy and for certain sectors. The industries that find the most favor are those that use heavy borrowing to facilitate growth efforts. These include construction, retail, information technology, transportation, and healthcare.

Commodity Prices

We continue to see a rise in commodity prices. Copper, oil, and lumber are all near record highs. I believe we’ll continue to see a steady increase in the price of copper. Copper is used in electronics, and with the further development of new technology, electric and autonomous vehicles, and green energy…the demand for the metal is just getting started.

Big Tech

Silicon Valley is bracing for possible regulatory troubles. There’s a new head of the FTC and she has her gloves on. Big tech has come under increased scrutiny in a few areas, including content, privacy, and antitrust. This causes investment concerns.

The federal government has a problem with social platforms and some of the content users post on their sites. There’s a thin line these companies walk because they can’t censor speech and they can’t promote speech. But some people post very harmful and hurtful things.

Also, antitrust cases are likely to come in full force because some of these companies are so gosh darn huge. They have so much pull, so much money, and too much market share (in a lot of cases).

What’s more, they no longer hide that they harness user data to make money. How much they sell to other parties and what they sell isn’t entirely known, but their privacy issues are also coming to head.

With all of that said, compliance costs are going to increase. What those companies look like and what they’re allowed to do will likely look different than what it is now. Only time will tell what happens to these companies.

Healthcare

I’m reading and hearing more and more excitement about the healthcare space and the investment opportunities that lie within. The speed at which the globe was able to produce three or four viable and useful vaccines for Covid is incredible. I heard today that it’s the first vaccine to be created in less than 5 years.

The global population is getting older by the day. Not only that, but the baby boomer generation is around retirement age, so they’re going to require more medical attention.

Prescriptions, medical devices, new and improved medical technologies are going to treat and possibly cure more and more illnesses.

Telemedicine looks to be a great investment opportunity. Last year, medical attention was quite high but 90% of that was done in person. Virtual visits, remote monitoring, and in-home testing will grow in popularity.

Investment concerns and opportunities abound, I’m excited for what’s to come in the tech and healthcare spaces.

Disclaimer:

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see the website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com

What’s The Federal Reserve Going To Do?

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There’s a lot going on in the world right now. Supply disruptions, stimulus payments, excess savings, labor shortages, and infrastructure are all playing a role in economic policy. In today’s post, I want to try and explain how they all play a factor with regard to how the FED determines policy.

Supply disruptions

Inherently, supply disruptions don’t have much to do with how the federal reserve coordinates monetary policy. The biggest supply disruption we have at the moment involves semiconductors.

The wide applicability of semiconductors makes them very important in product development and deployment. What’s more, the number of semiconductors needed just keeps growing.

The bad news is…there’s a supply shortage. That creates upward pressure on price. Not only for the semiconductors themselves but also for the products that use them.

Stimulus payments and excess savings

When Covid hit, the world shut down. People were out of work, so they didn’t spend money. People didn’t spend money, so businesses started losing revenue. In order to prevent total economic collapse, the government sent stimulus checks to qualifying individuals and boosted unemployment.

A lot of people saved this “extra” money and recently started to spend it. Jobs are starting to come back and the global economy is starting to look healthy. Confidence inspires spending. Increased consumer spending is good for the economy.

Labor shortages

Labor has become a big topic of conversation. Not only do we have more jobs available than we have people to take those jobs, but workers are quitting in large numbers. Both of those factors can have a large impact on wages.

Employers are having trouble filling roles. How can they attract applicants? Better wages and benefits? For those that can afford bigger payroll, that’s the avenue they’re using. That puts upward pressure on wages.

I also mentioned workers are quitting in droves. Employees are demanding to be fairly compensated and enough of them are banding together now. Improved benefits and increased wages are becoming more likely.

Wage inflation helps feed the price inflation narrative. The prices for products and services go up because of supply and demand factors. Wage inflation increases due to supply and demand dynamics.

These two inflationary pressures feed on each other. Wages go up so workers can afford more. Prices go up because workers can buy more, and so on.

Infrastructure

News broke about a new infrastructure bill (Source). On top of, already, record-breaking government spending, that’ll juice our GDP numbers for 2021.

I don’t have much else to say about this other than the spending involved will create inflationary pressures AND I’m proud there was bipartisan support for this bill. Not something we see very often anymore, so I’m happy it turned out this way.

The Federal Reserve

With all of that said, what’s the federal reserve going to do? If inflationary pressures are as hot as they seem, I fear the FED will have no option, but to end their accommodating stance on monetary policy.

They’ve already indicated that a rise in interest rates in Q3 or Q4 of 2023 is likely. They claim that they will let inflation run past their 2% target but by how much? At one point do they say enough is enough?

That’s a tough question to answer. I think in this situation, they’re talking bigger than what they’ll actually deliver. It’s all well and good if they say they’re going to let inflation run, but we’ll see what actually happens when that gets here.

Related reading:

Economic Pressures

Employment, Stimulus, Rising Prices

Disclaimer

**Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Please see the website for full disclosures: www.crgfinancialservices.com