How many times in a row do you have to be right before people catch on? In our little year-in-a-half existence, we’ve only tried to make a few points:
– Stop making bone-headed financial moves
– Good advisors often win NOT because they make brilliant decisions but because they stop clients from making moves that wreck their financial plan
– And, oh yeah, it might be a good idea to have a strategy in writing
We do all that and talk about avoiding the hotel minibar…..
While you may use the word “genius” (and we won’t stop you), we’ll stick with “prudent.” Sigh. It’s tough.
We’re not in the business of calling the stock market, and as some of our readers have mentioned (and we totally agree), you shouldn’t be, either. However, someone who’s a good advisor can see some obvious trends marching down the road. We’ve only made three calls here, and in our view, they weren’t tough:
– We recommended people avoid the Facebook and Zynga IPOs. Zynga, after opening just over $9 per share, now is trading at $3.72 as I write this. Facebook, while better, also isn’t good news. It opened over $29 per share and is trading at $27.04.
– On the April 9th issue of our podcast, we told listeners to avoid Apple stock. It was trading at $636.23. Today? $432.50. Follow our advice and pare back? You are welcome….
– And finally, eight days ago, on March 7th, we said, that while you should put defensive measures in place, we thought there was a good chance the market could still run up and you shouldn’t try to time it. We got pushback on this one, especially. The internet worry that the market was too high ended up being more financial pornography, brought on by the media hype of “sky is falling!” (I won’t call out specifically the three guys who told us they were worried and taking profits….). On March 8th, SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) traded at $155.44. Today it’s opening at $156.73.
So, because we don’t plan to call the market, you STILL won’t get a ton of moves from us in that area. You’re smart enough to know that you should start with your goal, find your perfect diversification, and finally, stay invested and rebalance. However, ahem, not to brag or anything….but we’re three for three.
So Now It’s Time To Mention 8 Blogs
Budget and the Beach – Tonya experiences the real fear of running out of money. She worries that it’s making her a penny pincher. I love the fact that she’s really in tune with how tenuous any financial situation can be.
Young Adult Money – DC talks spring cleaning. This gave me the fantastic idea that we need to talk about this topic on our podcast. Thanks for the inspiration, DC, but no thanks for reminding me that my garage needs serious attention….yuck.
Debt Roundup – Don’t be a hater! I know this post is three weeks old (ancient by blog standards), but I’ve got to point to one of my favorite articles ever on Grayson’s site: his rant about passive income. It was good to see another person call out the passive income lie. There is no cake.
Dough Roller – I like the idea of visual budgeting (so you can watch outflows more carefully). This article on the best calendar-based financial management tools shows three good candidates for me to play with.
Careful Cents – Speaking of apps, Carrie Smith tackles one of her favorite topics: tax organizing and filing apps.
Wise Dollar – I try not to mention the same blog two read-alongs in a row, but this post was great. Jose lost his job but details point by point his strategy while transitioning and looking for new work.
Reach Financial Independence – Pauline has a fantastic travel series. I grabbed her idea to use AirBnB for travel in the UK and morphed it into my summer trip to Northern Michigan. Her latest describes ways to travel France on a budget.
Club Thrifty – Holly is at war with the naysayers questioning her commitment to pay off her mortgage.
So many more blogs to mention, but I’m sticking to my rule of 8. It actually makes picking hard, but more fun deciding than just crankin’ out a laundry list….
Hello….My Name Is….
Hello to Johnny Moneyseed….a fantastic moniker and cool ass logo. Check out his post on traveling for less.
And hey-o to Alice at Hurricanes, Panties and Dollars. While I like Johnny’s logo, Alice’s got my attention more quickly, somehow…. Check out how she runs a carnival.
We’re Very Popular and Humble, Too….
Thanks to a ton of people for shining lights on our work this week.
Most notably, Robert at The College Investor was kick-ass enough to place our site on his list of the 19 Best Investment Blogs You Can Learn From. OG & I were happily surprised when we saw our name there.
Jen at the Happy Homeowner featured us in her Friday Link Love post today. Thanks for pointing to our How I Learned to Avoid Bone Headed Financial Moves post.
Laurie at The Frugal Farmer was kind enough to add us to her On The Town list of good reads.Thanks, Laurie for placing Rethink Your To-Do List on your own list!
Adam at Money Bulldog was kind enough to place our post 5 Great Stock Buying Tips to Practice Today on his weekend reading list.
And finally, Todd & John at Fearless Men (one of our all-time favorite sites for men) had the good sense to point to our Two Guys & Your Money podcast episode Makin’ Mo’ Money in their Weekly Roundup.
Thanks for the mention, I really appreciate it! I’ll be going through some of the posts you suggested that I haven’t already read as well. Thanks!
Budget and the Beach says
I wish I was into knowing more about the stock market. I’m making progress, but my interest just ins’t there yet. I put my trust in my financial advisor when I send him money for my retirement. I know, somewhat irresponsible. Thanks so much for the blog mention!
Thanks for mentioning my post! TGIF!
Laurie @thefrugalfarmer says
Hey, Joe! Thanks for the mention. I for one think you guys are on the right track. Your info is sound and informative, and doesn’t play on people’s emotions (in a way that makes them rush to the newest way to make money). Keep up the great work!
Debt RoundUp says
Glad to hear that my rant is your favorite on the site. It was one of my favorites to write. I was about to go off yesterday on someone’s post talking about how they truly make passive income from their blog. I had to restrain myself and not even comment. I don’t want to start a war here.
Average Joe says
Come on, Grayson….I love watching flame wars on the internet. As long as I’m not involved, it’s awesome….
My Financial Independence Journey says
Facebook and Zynga are exactly why I like established dividend growth stocks. Not much fun to talk about around the water cooler. But lots of warm fuzzy feelings when I stare at my account balance and yearly dividend income.
Average Joe says
Agreed. Dividend growth stocks are WAY more boring, which is why they’re usually WAY more fun over the long haul….
Thank you for the mention Joe. I still can’t see why a blog about panties gets your attention faster…
Average Joe says
It’s a mystery to me, too, Pauline. Weird….
Darnell Jackson says
Good post I’ll have to add to my consideration for the #IBCT.
What’s you take on GOLD and SILVER?
You were right on $FB but I’m the only person that called the APPLE decline before it happened last year.
Average Joe says
I’ve liked gold and silver as 10% of a model portfolio. They’re great diversifiers. The only issue from my perspective is that they’re 3x more volatile than stocks, and people getting into gold and silver often think they’re buying it for LESS volatility….
You may have called it before, Darnell, but if you listen to that podcast, you’ll see that we called it a month before it began, too ;-).
Great points, and thanks for an excellent roundup. Enjoy your weekend.
I would be a poor market timer anyway! I just dollar cost average into the market and try to think long term. I have a few defensive moves in my asset allocation that seems to slow down the volatility.
3 for 3 not bad, guess I will have to tune in more often, glad I found ya, keep it up! Thanks!!
Average Joe says
Hey, Jim! Thanks for finding us. For the record, I’m more proud of the fact that we only made three calls than the fact that we got them right….
The college investor has made me pick some great stocks, couldn’t recommend enough!